Who Would You Pick?

Consider the following scenario: today is draft day (don’t those words make every fantasy enthusiast’s heart beat faster?) in a very shallow points league. This league is so shallow, in fact, that there are only two teams – yours, and your opponent’s. Rosters consist of five players each: a quarterback, a running back, a wide receiver, a tight end and a kicker, no bench. Not a very realistic scenario, you say? True, but the fantasy implications are interesting nonetheless. Keep reading…

The good news is that you have the first pick. The even better news is that you’re drafting with perfect 20/20 hindsight. The stats that count toward the standings are each player’s performance in this year’s games to date, through the first four weeks of the season. You don’t have to worry about surprises, disappointments, benchings or migraines. You won’t be stuck with Kurt Warner or Curtis Martin; you know exactly who the studs are and which players to avoid.

Points are fairly standard: 6 points for each touchdown, whether rushing, receiving or passing, 1 point for every 50 yards passing, 1 point for every 30 yards rushing or receiving, 2 points for a two-point conversion, -2 points per fumble and 1 point for every point a kicker scores.

Sounds easy? With the first pick, and all the games that will count having already been played, winning this league shouldn’t be a problem. It turns out, however, that there is only one correct choice for your first pick. Every other player you might choose would leave you behind in the standings.

Let’s look at the options. We can eliminate a kicker right off the bat. Not only does conventional fantasy wisdom tell us to pick kickers last, but the kickers at the top of the scoring lists have posted such similar numbers as to make them practically indistinguishable. David Akers has a slim two-point lead over Morten Andersen, 42 to 40, with Ryan Longwell only one additional point behind. Forget kickers.

With six points per passing touchdown, quarterbacks rack up more points than any other position, and there have been several stellar performances in the season’s first month. Tom Brady has put up amazing numbers, even though many experts considered him a #2 fantasy QB, at best. Donovan McNabb’s combination of passing and rushing have his owners looking smug, and Drew Bledsoe has handsomely rewarded those who picked him as a sleeper. Again, there are too many options here to gain a significant edge. Brady weighs in at 84 points, but McNabb and Bledsoe are right behind with 83 and 80, respectively.

The same is true for wide receivers. While early fantasy draft picks such as Randy Moss, Terrell Owens or David Boston have stumbled, receivers such as Curtis Conway (35 points), Donald Driver (34), Eric Moulds (31) and James Thrash (31) have put up terrific numbers for their owners. In this senario, however, none of them will give you the edge you need.

Ok, so you wouldn’t have chosen a wide receiver first anyway. Let’s look at running backs, the backbone of most fantasy teams. And here, there is a player who stands head and shoulders above the crowd: Priest Holmes. Far from being a one-year wonder, Holmes has dominated his opponents on the field and in the fantasy standings. The Chiefs rusher has amassed 64 points, scoring two more touchdowns than any other back. Lamar Smith has ranked second with 51 points while filling in for DeShaun Foster, followed by LaDainian Tomlinson with 49 and Ricky Williams at 45. Holmes’ 13 point edge is huge.

Holmes still isn’t the best choice, however. The player who single-handedly wins this league plays for the Chiefs too, but his name is Tony Gonzalez.

With five touchdowns and solid yardage totals so far, Gonzalez weighs in at 39 points (which, incidentally, is more than the top WR achieved). And even though there have been a number of surprise success stories such as Randy McMichael, Anthony Becht or Todd Heap at tight end, none comes close to Gonzalez. The next best choice, McMichael, only has 18 points to his credit, less than half of Gonzalez’ value.

How much of an advantage is this? If you pick Gonzalez first, you can let your opponent draft his entire team before you take whoever is left. Gonzalez compensates for being at a disadvantage at every other position. Simply put, whichever team has Tony Gonzalez wins, even though his points amount to less than half of Brady McNabb or Bledsoe’s totals. Congratulations, Tony – you’re the MVP, and it’s not even close.

The question is: do these results translate to regular fantasy leagues? Obviously (and fortunately), no one player is capable of single-handedly winning a ten or twelve-team league with normal-sized rosters. Yet Gonzalez does provide a significant edge week after week: a team with Tony Gonzalez at tight end essentially has an extra man on the field compared with teams featuring Jay Riemersma. Besides, unlike players such as Marshall Faulk or recently-injured Kurt Warner, Gonzalez has lived up to his billing as the best player at his position.

No, Gonzalez isn’t worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts. But those owners who were able to snag him in the fifth or sixth rounds of their drafts sure picked up an amazing bargain.

 
Arlo Vander edits Fantasy Football Cafe’s Point of View articles. Unfortunately, this doesn’t leave anybody else to blame for typos and other errors.

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