Predictions Revisited

A long time ago, all the way back in 2002, before the football season began, even before the NFL draft, a couple of the folks at the Cafe got together to look into the future and predict what the season would bring. Well, that future is now, and things look a bit different with 20/20 hindsight than they did in our crystal balls.

I suppose we should have known right from week 1, when the expansion Texans toppled the Cowboys, that this would be a season filled with surprises. Some of our predictions wound up hitting the spot, while others… well, it was a long time ago. We were young then, and foolish…

 
Super Bowl Champion

Dan: The Ravens. Sure, they’ll have another new QB this year, but chances are he will fit in better than Elvis. The main unknown factor is the health of Jamal Lewis, which will be critical to Baltimore’s success.

cwebb: Chicago Bears. I love them… And predictions like this won’t work out anyway so let’s go for the pot of gold and hope it turns out to be true!

Arlo: St. Louis. I know, I know: this isn’t a particularly bold prediction, but the Rams definitely have something to prove this year. I don’t see them losing the big game to an AFC East team again.

Not bad: we predicted three different teams, not one of which wound up making the playoffs. Jamal Lewis was healthy, but the rest of the Ravens unravelled, as did the upstart Bears and the mighty Rams. Ouch.

Most Improved Team

Dan: Minnesota is the obvious choice here. Consider last year a learning experience that will pay off now.

cwebb: Baltimore. Back to the Bowl?

Arlo: Minnesota. No way do the Vikings go 0-8 on the road again. Look for nine wins or more and a playoff berth.

The Vikings did indeed improve on the road, winning two games. Unfortunately, they only won four at home, as Daunte Culpepper was inconsistent and the Randy ratio was forgotten by November. And the Ravens? Back to the draft instead of back to the bowl.

Offensive MVP

Dan: Hmmm…tough choice here. Marshall Faulk, of course!

cwebb: Marshall. No question here!

Arlo: Marshall Faulk. He’s already the greatest running back in the game; now look for him to average 2-3 more carries per game.

I guess we can be excused for missing this one. Faulk was the obvious call here, but wound up as frustrated as the rest of the Rams’ offense, fighting injuries and inconsistency. How the mighty have fallen… It will be interesting to see when Faulk is taken in next year’s drafts, and whether he can regain his status as the greatest fantasy force in the game.

Defensive MVP

Dan: Ray Lewis. The Ravens D wasn’t as good last year as in their Super Bowl campaign. One of the main reasons was that Ray didn’t seem to be as focused on football as he has been in the past. Look for him to get his edge back and lead the Ravens into the big game.

cwebb: Brian Urlacher. Someone from Chicago oughta earn a trophy if they win it all, right?

Arlo: Brian Urlacher. Just give him the trophy, and ask him to return it when he retires.

Lewis looked very good early, but wound up playing in only five games due to injuries, a huge factor in the Ravens’ woes. Urlacher posted very solid numbers, but wasn’t quite the dominating force we expected as the Bears’ defense took a step in the wrong direction.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Dan: William Green, based purely on talent, but without knowing which team he’ll wind up with, this is just a shot in the dark…

cwebb: David Carr. Easy choice as he’ll get all the playing time he needs to rack up respectable stats.

Arlo: Donte Stallworth. David Carr might be more deserving, but his numbers will be ugly on a first-year team. Stallworth will turn heads with some long td’s.

We underestimated both Clinton Portis and Jeremy Shockey, but the players we chose were very good in their own right. Green looked spectacular at times when handed the starting job at the end of the season, already making him a popular sleeper for next year’s draft. Carr showed great poise in the unenviable role of leader of an expansion team, while Stallworth’s game turned out to be a lot more polished than many thought. Only injuries prevented Stallworth from making an even greater splash as a rookie.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Dan: With Arlo going with Jammer, I have to disagree and choose Peppers… but a surprise in this category is likely with some very solid talent entering the league.

cwebb: Julius Peppers has more talent than any other player in this year’s draft, offense or defense. Enough said!

Arlo: Quentin Jammer. Sure, Julius Peppers is the favorite, but I think Jammer will have more of an immediate impact.

Well, we got this one right: Peppers was – deservingly – named the defensive rookie of the year despite being suspended for four games. Jammer also played well, although he’ll need a bit more time to reach his full potential. Both could be very good for many years to come.

Comeback of the Year

Dan: Terell Davis. Hampered by injuries thorughout the last years, he will have a huge year if he is able to play a full season.

cwebb: Marcus Robinson. Look for him to be among the league’s elite.

Arlo: Drew Bledsoe. In this year’s feelgood story, Bledsoe will lead a weak team to a .500 record while finishing 4th in the AFC in qb rating. And no injuries this time…

Er… Terrell Davis? Unfortunately, TD called it quits before the season, clearing the way for Clinton Portis’ excellent season. Robinson was often merely an afterthough in what little there was of the Bears’ passing game, but Bledsoe did indeed have an excellent year in leading the Bills to an 8-8 mark, making fantasy owners who picked him up late in their drafts very happy.

Biggest Bust

Dan: Az-Zahir Hakim… I never trusted him as a fantasy starter, and I probably never will. I also think the Lions won’t do so for very long, either. Hakim will quickly fade in Detroit.

cwebb: Tom Brady. The luck of the Irish is about to come to an end.

Arlo: Az-Zahir Hakim. Az will find himself missing the good old days in St. Louis very soon.

Hakim finished the season with only 541 yards receiving and three touchdowns, far below expectations. The job sure seemed easier in St. Louis… Brady, on the other hand, was solid, even if he couldn’t take the Patriots to the playoffs.

What We’d Like to See Most

Dan: Da Bucs shutting down their opponents and setting a few defensive records on the way.

cwebb: The Bears going all the way!

Arlo: Tom Brady proving that last year was no fluke.

Tampa Bay’s defense did indeed shut down quite a few of their opponents, allowing their opponents a stingy 196 points. Among those shut down were the Bears, their former division rivals, who were held scoreless by the Bucs and missed the playoffs. Brady, on the other hand, showed that his solid 2001 season was for real, putting up solid numbers and showing maturity and leadership.

In sum, our predictions were an extremely mixed bag. We seemed to do fairly well when projecting individual players, at least when we managed to steer clear of injuries, but team predictions were a different story. In the new era of NFL parity, saying that anything can happen in any week is truly no understatement. But even if those making predictions do have to eat a little crow on occasion, that’s what makes the NFL – and fantasy football – so much fun!

 
We weren’t the only ones looking into crystal balls prior to the season. Check out the Predictions Forum for foresight from Cafe visitors ranging from the good (Terry Glenn is a bust; the Browns surprise everybody and make the playoffs) to the bad(Redskins win it all) to the downright ugly (Johnnie Morton shines in Kansas City)!

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