Week 16

This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”

Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.

 
QB  RB  WR  TE

QB:

Matt Hasselbeck is the hottest ticket at quarterback this week largely because Arizona is allowing the most fantasy points to to QBs in the NFL. If Steve McNair starts, and we’re betting he will, he also makes a solid fantasy play. Just temper your expectations a bit. If the Titans jump out to a big lead, you’ll see a lot of Eddie George. And as weird as it seems, Michael Vick, who faces Tampa Bay, doesn’t make our top 25 this week.

QB	Opp	Pass Yds	Int	Sack	Rush Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Matt Hasselbeck SEA	ARI	271.3	0.59	1.70	9.3	0.29	2.13	21.38
Steve McNair* TEN	HOU	258.5	0.38	0.89	12.4	0.92	1.92	20.51
*Questionable (ankle/calf)
Daunte Culpepper MIN	KC	262.9	1.15	2.96	37.9	1.08	2.00	19.96
Brad Johnson TB	ATL	279.4	0.76	1.69	2.9	0.43	1.84	18.86
Peyton Manning IND	DEN	254.4	0.36	1.16	0.9	0.21	1.76	18.75
Marc Bulger STL	CIN	286.0	1.39	2.42	6.5	0.38	1.88	17.78
Trent Green KC	MIN	285.1	1.12	1.33	5.5	0.36	1.58	17.54
Jeff Garcia SF	PHI	203.5	0.91	1.53	28.8	0.73	1.48	15.80
Doug Flutie SD	PIT	165.2	0.51	1.22	22.1	1.00	1.70	15.74
Tommy Maddox PIT	SD	254.8	0.83	1.89	1.1	0.21	1.51	15.60
Aaron Brooks NO	JAX	210.9	0.56	1.65	8.3	1.00	1.57	14.92
Brett Favre GB	OAK	210.0	1.39	0.81	1.0	0.36	1.72	14.89
Jon Kitna CIN	STL	215.0	1.09	2.85	8.0	0.64	1.76	14.31
Jake Plummer DEN	IND	169.1	0.54	1.47	18.5	0.20	1.33	13.82
Quincy Carter DAL	NYG	213.0	0.80	2.77	15.8	0.57	1.40	13.54
Jake Delhomme CAR	DET	220.7	0.90	1.04	2.5	1.00	1.34	13.24
Jeff Blake ARI	SEA	184.7	1.20	1.48	13.5	0.62	1.19	11.40
Byron Leftwich JAX	NO	177.5	0.67	1.24	4.7	0.85	1.16	11.08
Tom Brady NE	NYJ	212.3	0.54	2.39	3.5	0.86	1.01	10.61
Donovan McNabb PHI	SF	188.1	0.85	3.31	22.0	0.64	1.07	10.49
David Carr HOU	TEN	187.2	1.04	1.66	7.5	0.40	1.00	10.08
Joey Harrington DET	CAR	188.6	1.15	0.70	6.0	0.43	0.87	9.96
Chad Pennington NYJ	NE	211.9	1.34	2.37	2.1	0.75	1.17	9.88
Anthony Wright BAL	CLE	174.0	1.08	2.75	12.2	1.40	1.21	9.09
Jay Fiedler* MIA	BUF	154.3	0.69	1.73	6.6	0.50	0.97	9.07
*Probable (knee)

 
RB:

The key here is to check in on your stud’s status just before gametime. Priest Holmes, Stephen Davis, and Clinton Portis are all bothered by injuries to some extent, and all are on teams who have locked up a playoff spot. Davis and Portis are especially likely to be rested. Kevan Barlow makes a good start this week against a Philly run D that’s been suprisingly porous.

RB	Opp	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Priest Holmes* KC	MIN	97.9	49.1	0.07	1.82	25.56
*Probable (foot)
Ahman Green GB	OAK	140.1	25.8	0.50	1.29	23.84
Clinton Portis* DEN	IND	123.4	21.5	0.23	1.05	20.54
*Questionable (ankle/knee)
LaDainian Tomlinson SD	PIT	85.5	47.1	0.14	0.84	18.13
Jamal Lewis BAL	CLE	131.0	11.2	0.50	0.62	17.45
Marshall Faulk STL	CIN	81.2	26.0	0.00	0.97	16.56
Shaun Alexander SEA	ARI	85.0	18.7	0.21	1.04	16.38
Stephen Davis* CAR	DET	105.2	13.4	0.23	0.68	15.72
*Questionable (ankle)
Fred Taylor JAX	NO	104.7	21.7	0.43	0.45	14.94
Kevan Barlow SF	PHI	110.0	17.1	0.36	0.38	14.66
Deuce McAllister NO	JAX	79.2	30.8	0.29	0.52	13.84
Edgerrin James IND	DEN	75.0	21.6	0.27	0.66	13.32
Travis Henry BUF	MIA	74.0	12.4	0.31	0.78	13.02
TJ Duckett ATL	TB	88.4	5.8	0.14	0.60	12.85
Rudi Johnson CIN	STL	85.8	9.2	0.00	0.56	12.85
Thomas Jones TB	ATL	93.5	11.1	0.21	0.34	12.26
Anthony Thomas CHI	WAS	88.5	1.5	0.09	0.55	12.23
Ricky Williams* MIA	BUF	69.5	17.4	0.43	0.55	11.59
*Probable (shoulder)
Brian Westbrook PHI	SF	41.0	21.2	0.00	0.85	11.29
Eddie George TEN	HOU	74.6	8.9	0.07	0.36	10.43
Michael Bennett* MIN	KC	73.1	23.0	0.33	0.18	10.36
*Probable (ankle)
Garrison Hearst* SF	PHI	69.8	17.8	0.17	0.26	10.18
*Questionable (knee)
Domanick Davis HOU	TEN	49.8	28.7	0.25	0.39	9.92
Moe Williams* MIN	KC	30.0	45.6	0.14	0.39	9.75
*Probable (knee)
Troy Hambrick DAL	NYG	67.1	7.5	0.29	0.39	9.51
Mike Cloud NE	NYJ	29.9	1.5	0.00	1.06	9.47
Tiki Barber NYG	DAL	64.6	23.1	0.64	0.17	9.12
Kevin Faulk NE	NYJ	58.9	31.1	0.31	0.00	8.70
Jerome Bettis* PIT	SD	53.0	5.6	0.36	0.46	8.26
*Probable (knee)
Curtis Martin NYJ	NE	61.0	17.4	0.14	0.06	8.04
Charlie Garner OAK	GB	36.6	30.6	0.08	0.22	7.97
Antowain Smith NE	NYJ	51.5	7.5	0.09	0.29	7.54
Richie Anderson DAL	NYG	19.5	32.8	0.00	0.35	7.35
Onterrio Smith* MIN	KC	58.3	5.3	0.08	0.17	7.28
*Probable (hamstring)
Shawn Bryson DET	CAR	40.2	23.8	0.21	0.18	7.26

 
WR:

What we said about Priest, Clinton, and Stephen … ditto that for Isaac Bruce. Darrell Jackson and 2004 NFC All-Pro Anquan Boldin just won’t go away from our top 10. Start them with confidence. Joe “Phone Home” Horn, love him or hate him, makes a nice start against the Jags We figure he’s got a 66% chance of finding the endzone – unless he hasn’t cooled down yet from last week; then it’s much higher.

WR	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Randy Moss MIN	KC	109.4	0.07	0.99	16.82
Torry Holt STL	CIN	116.8	0.00	0.80	16.48
Hines Ward* PIT	SD	84.4	0.00	0.73	12.83
*Probable (knee)
Darrell Jackson SEA	ARI	84.6	0.07	0.68	12.49
Chad Johnson CIN	STL	83.8	0.00	0.68	12.46
Anquan Boldin ARI	SEA	93.2	0.14	0.51	12.21
Marvin Harrison IND	DEN	81.8	0.15	0.69	12.14
Keenan McCardell TB	ATL	86.7	0.07	0.56	11.97
Derrick Mason TEN	HOU	92.6	0.00	0.42	11.75
Terrell Owens* SF	PHI	78.4	0.00	0.53	11.02
*Probable (groin)
Santana Moss NYJ	NE	71.3	0.14	0.66	10.96
Steve Smith CAR	DET	79.3	0.07	0.47	10.69
Joe Horn NO	JAX	64.3	0.14	0.66	10.24
Isaac Bruce* STL	CIN	75.5	0.00	0.36	9.73
*Questionable (ankle)
Jimmy Smith JAX	NO	68.7	0.10	0.42	9.27
David Boston* SD	PIT	65.0	0.17	0.44	8.99
*Probable (neck)
Justin McCareins TEN	HOU	56.0	0.00	0.48	8.51
Andre Johnson HOU	TEN	65.4	0.00	0.30	8.36
Peter Warrick* CIN	STL	54.9	0.00	0.48	8.35
*Probable (knee)
Chris Chambers* MIA	BUF	50.1	0.07	0.55	8.23
*Probable (ribs)
Laveranues Coles* WAS	CHI	66.3	0.00	0.24	8.10
*Probable (toe)
Koren Robinson SEA	ARI	66.8	0.08	0.25	8.08
Kevin Johnson CLE	BAL	61.4	0.00	0.31	8.01
Reggie Wayne IND	DEN	53.1	0.00	0.45	7.99
Eric Moulds BUF	MIA	68.2	0.00	0.09	7.37
Eddie Kennison KC	MIN	56.9	0.00	0.27	7.33
Plaxico Burress PIT	SD	63.6	0.07	0.16	7.26
Terry Glenn* DAL	NYG	50.3	0.14	0.40	7.26
*Probable (leg)
Javon Walker* GB	OAK	39.9	0.07	0.47	6.73
*Probable (knee)
Bobby Shaw BUF	MIA	50.5	0.07	0.29	6.71
Amani Toomer NYG	DAL	53.3	0.00	0.23	6.70
Johnnie Morton KC	MIN	50.1	0.00	0.27	6.64
Charles Lee TB	ATL	55.0	0.00	0.19	6.62
Muhsin Muhammad CAR	DET	58.0	0.23	0.17	6.58
Bobby Engram SEA	ARI	43.3	0.07	0.38	6.54
Tai Streets* SF	PHI	39.0	0.00	0.41	6.38
*Probable (quadriceps)
Deion Branch* NE	NYJ	51.0	0.00	0.20	6.33
*Probable (finger)
Drew Bennett TEN	HOU	44.8	0.00	0.29	6.22
Jerry Rice OAK	GB	53.9	0.07	0.15	6.22

 
TE:

Two of these guys would be more appropriately listed with the wide receivers: Gonzo and Sharpe, of course. During the reign of Boller in Baltimore, Todd Heap was being treated like a WR with up to eight catches a game. Well, he scored his third TD of the season last week, so maybe Anthony Wright has made a new friend.

TE	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Tony Gonzalez KC	MIN	61.8	0.00	0.68	10.27
Shannon Sharpe DEN	IND	47.1	0.00	0.49	7.65
Todd Heap BAL	CLE	44.5	0.07	0.18	5.47
Freddie Jones ARI	SEA	36.1	0.00	0.22	4.91
Marcus Pollard IND	DEN	35.1	0.08	0.22	4.76
Itula Mili SEA	ARI	29.3	0.00	0.30	4.75
Daniel Graham NE	NYJ	31.0	0.00	0.22	4.43
Jim Kleinsasser MIN	KC	27.6	0.00	0.21	4.04
Boo Williams NO	JAX	24.0	0.00	0.26	3.98
Randy McMichael MIA	BUF	31.3	0.00	0.13	3.92
Billy Miller HOU	TEN	25.2	0.00	0.23	3.88
Alge Crumpler ATL	TB	31.8	0.07	0.12	3.84
Mikhael Ricks DET	CAR	29.0	0.00	0.13	3.67
Desmond Clark* CHI	WAS	28.8	0.15	0.15	3.64
*Questionable (toe)
Erron Kinney TEN	HOU	28.1	0.07	0.14	3.57
Anthony Becht NYJ	NE	21.3	0.07	0.20	3.25
Keith Heinrich CLE	BAL	8.9	0.00	0.37	3.14
Frank Wycheck TEN	HOU	15.4	0.00	0.24	2.99
Matt Schobel CIN	STL	21.6	0.08	0.15	2.96
Bubba Franks GB	OAK	15.6	0.00	0.20	2.77