Week 16

By Charles Budd & Steve Maluk, Fantasy Football Cafe Regulars

This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”

Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.

QB RB WR TE

QB:

Matt Hasselbeck is the hottest ticket at quarterback this week largely because Arizona is allowing the most fantasy points to to QBs in the NFL. If Steve McNair starts, and we’re betting he will, he also makes a solid fantasy play. Just temper your expectations a bit. If the Titans jump out to a big lead, you’ll see a lot of Eddie George. And as weird as it seems, Michael Vick, who faces Tampa Bay, doesn’t make our top 25 this week.

QB Opp Pass Yds Int Sack Rush Yds Fum TDs Pts
Matt Hasselbeck SEA ARI 271.3 0.59 1.70 9.3 0.29 2.13 21.38
Steve McNair* TEN HOU 258.5 0.38 0.89 12.4 0.92 1.92 20.51
*Questionable (ankle/calf)
Daunte Culpepper MIN KC 262.9 1.15 2.96 37.9 1.08 2.00 19.96
Brad Johnson TB ATL 279.4 0.76 1.69 2.9 0.43 1.84 18.86
Peyton Manning IND DEN 254.4 0.36 1.16 0.9 0.21 1.76 18.75
Marc Bulger STL CIN 286.0 1.39 2.42 6.5 0.38 1.88 17.78
Trent Green KC MIN 285.1 1.12 1.33 5.5 0.36 1.58 17.54
Jeff Garcia SF PHI 203.5 0.91 1.53 28.8 0.73 1.48 15.80
Doug Flutie SD PIT 165.2 0.51 1.22 22.1 1.00 1.70 15.74
Tommy Maddox PIT SD 254.8 0.83 1.89 1.1 0.21 1.51 15.60
Aaron Brooks NO JAX 210.9 0.56 1.65 8.3 1.00 1.57 14.92
Brett Favre GB OAK 210.0 1.39 0.81 1.0 0.36 1.72 14.89
Jon Kitna CIN STL 215.0 1.09 2.85 8.0 0.64 1.76 14.31
Jake Plummer DEN IND 169.1 0.54 1.47 18.5 0.20 1.33 13.82
Quincy Carter DAL NYG 213.0 0.80 2.77 15.8 0.57 1.40 13.54
Jake Delhomme CAR DET 220.7 0.90 1.04 2.5 1.00 1.34 13.24
Jeff Blake ARI SEA 184.7 1.20 1.48 13.5 0.62 1.19 11.40
Byron Leftwich JAX NO 177.5 0.67 1.24 4.7 0.85 1.16 11.08
Tom Brady NE NYJ 212.3 0.54 2.39 3.5 0.86 1.01 10.61
Donovan McNabb PHI SF 188.1 0.85 3.31 22.0 0.64 1.07 10.49
David Carr HOU TEN 187.2 1.04 1.66 7.5 0.40 1.00 10.08
Joey Harrington DET CAR 188.6 1.15 0.70 6.0 0.43 0.87 9.96
Chad Pennington NYJ NE 211.9 1.34 2.37 2.1 0.75 1.17 9.88
Anthony Wright BAL CLE 174.0 1.08 2.75 12.2 1.40 1.21 9.09
Jay Fiedler* MIA BUF 154.3 0.69 1.73 6.6 0.50 0.97 9.07
*Probable (knee)

RB:

The key here is to check in on your stud’s status just before gametime. Priest Holmes, Stephen Davis, and Clinton Portis are all bothered by injuries to some extent, and all are on teams who have locked up a playoff spot. Davis and Portis are especially likely to be rested. Kevan Barlow makes a good start this week against a Philly run D that’s been suprisingly porous.

RB Opp Rush Yds Rec Yds Fum TDs Pts
Priest Holmes* KC MIN 97.9 49.1 0.07 1.82 25.56
*Probable (foot)
Ahman Green GB OAK 140.1 25.8 0.50 1.29 23.84
Clinton Portis* DEN IND 123.4 21.5 0.23 1.05 20.54
*Questionable (ankle/knee)
LaDainian Tomlinson SD PIT 85.5 47.1 0.14 0.84 18.13
Jamal Lewis BAL CLE 131.0 11.2 0.50 0.62 17.45
Marshall Faulk STL CIN 81.2 26.0 0.00 0.97 16.56
Shaun Alexander SEA ARI 85.0 18.7 0.21 1.04 16.38
Stephen Davis* CAR DET 105.2 13.4 0.23 0.68 15.72
*Questionable (ankle)
Fred Taylor JAX NO 104.7 21.7 0.43 0.45 14.94
Kevan Barlow SF PHI 110.0 17.1 0.36 0.38 14.66
Deuce McAllister NO JAX 79.2 30.8 0.29 0.52 13.84
Edgerrin James IND DEN 75.0 21.6 0.27 0.66 13.32
Travis Henry BUF MIA 74.0 12.4 0.31 0.78 13.02
TJ Duckett ATL TB 88.4 5.8 0.14 0.60 12.85
Rudi Johnson CIN STL 85.8 9.2 0.00 0.56 12.85
Thomas Jones TB ATL 93.5 11.1 0.21 0.34 12.26
Anthony Thomas CHI WAS 88.5 1.5 0.09 0.55 12.23
Ricky Williams* MIA BUF 69.5 17.4 0.43 0.55 11.59
*Probable (shoulder)
Brian Westbrook PHI SF 41.0 21.2 0.00 0.85 11.29
Eddie George TEN HOU 74.6 8.9 0.07 0.36 10.43
Michael Bennett* MIN KC 73.1 23.0 0.33 0.18 10.36
*Probable (ankle)
Garrison Hearst* SF PHI 69.8 17.8 0.17 0.26 10.18
*Questionable (knee)
Domanick Davis HOU TEN 49.8 28.7 0.25 0.39 9.92
Moe Williams* MIN KC 30.0 45.6 0.14 0.39 9.75
*Probable (knee)
Troy Hambrick DAL NYG 67.1 7.5 0.29 0.39 9.51
Mike Cloud NE NYJ 29.9 1.5 0.00 1.06 9.47
Tiki Barber NYG DAL 64.6 23.1 0.64 0.17 9.12
Kevin Faulk NE NYJ 58.9 31.1 0.31 0.00 8.70
Jerome Bettis* PIT SD 53.0 5.6 0.36 0.46 8.26
*Probable (knee)
Curtis Martin NYJ NE 61.0 17.4 0.14 0.06 8.04
Charlie Garner OAK GB 36.6 30.6 0.08 0.22 7.97
Antowain Smith NE NYJ 51.5 7.5 0.09 0.29 7.54
Richie Anderson DAL NYG 19.5 32.8 0.00 0.35 7.35
Onterrio Smith* MIN KC 58.3 5.3 0.08 0.17 7.28
*Probable (hamstring)
Shawn Bryson DET CAR 40.2 23.8 0.21 0.18 7.26

WR:

What we said about Priest, Clinton, and Stephen … ditto that for Isaac Bruce. Darrell Jackson and 2004 NFC All-Pro Anquan Boldin just won’t go away from our top 10. Start them with confidence. Joe “Phone Home” Horn, love him or hate him, makes a nice start against the Jags We figure he’s got a 66% chance of finding the endzone - unless he hasn’t cooled down yet from last week; then it’s much higher.

WR Opp Rec Yds Fum TDs Pts
Randy Moss MIN KC 109.4 0.07 0.99 16.82
Torry Holt STL CIN 116.8 0.00 0.80 16.48
Hines Ward* PIT SD 84.4 0.00 0.73 12.83
*Probable (knee)
Darrell Jackson SEA ARI 84.6 0.07 0.68 12.49
Chad Johnson CIN STL 83.8 0.00 0.68 12.46
Anquan Boldin ARI SEA 93.2 0.14 0.51 12.21
Marvin Harrison IND DEN 81.8 0.15 0.69 12.14
Keenan McCardell TB ATL 86.7 0.07 0.56 11.97
Derrick Mason TEN HOU 92.6 0.00 0.42 11.75
Terrell Owens* SF PHI 78.4 0.00 0.53 11.02
*Probable (groin)
Santana Moss NYJ NE 71.3 0.14 0.66 10.96
Steve Smith CAR DET 79.3 0.07 0.47 10.69
Joe Horn NO JAX 64.3 0.14 0.66 10.24
Isaac Bruce* STL CIN 75.5 0.00 0.36 9.73
*Questionable (ankle)
Jimmy Smith JAX NO 68.7 0.10 0.42 9.27
David Boston* SD PIT 65.0 0.17 0.44 8.99
*Probable (neck)
Justin McCareins TEN HOU 56.0 0.00 0.48 8.51
Andre Johnson HOU TEN 65.4 0.00 0.30 8.36
Peter Warrick* CIN STL 54.9 0.00 0.48 8.35
*Probable (knee)
Chris Chambers* MIA BUF 50.1 0.07 0.55 8.23
*Probable (ribs)
Laveranues Coles* WAS CHI 66.3 0.00 0.24 8.10
*Probable (toe)
Koren Robinson SEA ARI 66.8 0.08 0.25 8.08
Kevin Johnson CLE BAL 61.4 0.00 0.31 8.01
Reggie Wayne IND DEN 53.1 0.00 0.45 7.99
Eric Moulds BUF MIA 68.2 0.00 0.09 7.37
Eddie Kennison KC MIN 56.9 0.00 0.27 7.33
Plaxico Burress PIT SD 63.6 0.07 0.16 7.26
Terry Glenn* DAL NYG 50.3 0.14 0.40 7.26
*Probable (leg)
Javon Walker* GB OAK 39.9 0.07 0.47 6.73
*Probable (knee)
Bobby Shaw BUF MIA 50.5 0.07 0.29 6.71
Amani Toomer NYG DAL 53.3 0.00 0.23 6.70
Johnnie Morton KC MIN 50.1 0.00 0.27 6.64
Charles Lee TB ATL 55.0 0.00 0.19 6.62
Muhsin Muhammad CAR DET 58.0 0.23 0.17 6.58
Bobby Engram SEA ARI 43.3 0.07 0.38 6.54
Tai Streets* SF PHI 39.0 0.00 0.41 6.38
*Probable (quadriceps)
Deion Branch* NE NYJ 51.0 0.00 0.20 6.33
*Probable (finger)
Drew Bennett TEN HOU 44.8 0.00 0.29 6.22
Jerry Rice OAK GB 53.9 0.07 0.15 6.22

TE:

Two of these guys would be more appropriately listed with the wide receivers: Gonzo and Sharpe, of course. During the reign of Boller in Baltimore, Todd Heap was being treated like a WR with up to eight catches a game. Well, he scored his third TD of the season last week, so maybe Anthony Wright has made a new friend.

TE Opp Rec Yds Fum TDs Pts
Tony Gonzalez KC MIN 61.8 0.00 0.68 10.27
Shannon Sharpe DEN IND 47.1 0.00 0.49 7.65
Todd Heap BAL CLE 44.5 0.07 0.18 5.47
Freddie Jones ARI SEA 36.1 0.00 0.22 4.91
Marcus Pollard IND DEN 35.1 0.08 0.22 4.76
Itula Mili SEA ARI 29.3 0.00 0.30 4.75
Daniel Graham NE NYJ 31.0 0.00 0.22 4.43
Jim Kleinsasser MIN KC 27.6 0.00 0.21 4.04
Boo Williams NO JAX 24.0 0.00 0.26 3.98
Randy McMichael MIA BUF 31.3 0.00 0.13 3.92
Billy Miller HOU TEN 25.2 0.00 0.23 3.88
Alge Crumpler ATL TB 31.8 0.07 0.12 3.84
Mikhael Ricks DET CAR 29.0 0.00 0.13 3.67
Desmond Clark* CHI WAS 28.8 0.15 0.15 3.64
*Questionable (toe)
Erron Kinney TEN HOU 28.1 0.07 0.14 3.57
Anthony Becht NYJ NE 21.3 0.07 0.20 3.25
Keith Heinrich CLE BAL 8.9 0.00 0.37 3.14
Frank Wycheck TEN HOU 15.4 0.00 0.24 2.99
Matt Schobel CIN STL 21.6 0.08 0.15 2.96
Bubba Franks GB OAK 15.6 0.00 0.20 2.77