Wild Card Games

This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”

Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.

 
QB  RB  WR  TE

QB:

Brett Favre is listed as probable, but if the sun rises on Sunday, then Brett Favre will start for the Packers against Seattle. Las Vegas expects a high-scoring game in Indianapolis, so the value of Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer reflects that both make great starts. Steve McNair? He’s not as certain to be starting as is Favre, but we’d still bet, respectively, our prized Wesley Walker jersey and John Belushi sweatshirt that McNair will play.

QB	Opp	Pass Yds	Int	Sack	Rush Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Brett Favre* GB	SEA	227.9	1.2	1.4	0.87	0.3	2.06	17.35
*Probable (thumb)
Peyton Manning IND	DEN	235.2	0.3	1.2	1.38	0.4	1.64	17.13
Jake Plummer DEN	IND	173.7	0.6	1.2	19.57	0.2	1.60	16.02
Steve McNair* TEN	BAL	200.8	0.7	1.9	8.03	0.9	1.65	14.56
*Questionable (ankle/calf)
Matt Hasselbeck SEA	GB	254.5	1.2	2.6	7.05	0.3	1.43	14.29
Quincy Carter DAL	CAR	193.2	1.2	2.7	14.67	0.5	1.07	9.90
Jake Delhomme CAR	DAL	165.0	0.8	1.4	2.03	0.9	1.13	9.67
Anthony Wright BAL	TEN	192.6	1.4	2.9	6.67	1.3	1.14	8.22

 
RB:

Clinton Portis and Ahman Green are helmet and shoulder pads above the rest here, though the next four of Shaun, Edge, Jamal, and Stephen could easily break out for huge games. Obviously, if have one of those guys, start them. But we’re thinking that one or two fullbacks (you know, the guys with the oversized shoulder pads) will get a goal-line TD (Mike Anderson?) or catch a pass for a score (Tony Fisher?).

RB	Opp	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Clinton Portis* DEN	IND	128.5	21.42	0.2	1.23	22.17
*Probable (ankle)
Ahman Green GB	SEA	109.8	25.00	0.4	1.11	19.70
Shaun Alexander SEA	GB	80.9	19.40	0.3	0.78	14.46
Edgerrin James IND	DEN	82.4	20.02	0.4	0.76	14.43
Jamal Lewis BAL	TEN	88.7	14.34	0.5	0.70	14.01
Stephen Davis CAR	DAL	77.9	9.36	0.2	0.44	11.17
Troy Hambrick DAL	CAR	55.5	5.82	0.3	0.26	7.45
Eddie George TEN	BAL	52.5	9.40	0.1	0.21	7.38
Richie Anderson DAL	CAR	18.6	30.89	0.1	0.30	6.67
Mike Anderson DEN	IND	22.5	3.92	0.2	0.44	5.13
Adrian Murrell DAL	CAR	32.6	10.03	0.0	0.00	4.26
Aveion Cason DAL	CAR	20.1	13.35	0.1	0.17	4.25
DeShaun Foster CAR	DAL	23.2	12.19	0.2	0.13	4.10
Tony Fisher GB	SEA	12.4	14.97	0.0	0.19	3.90
Quentin Griffin DEN	IND	36.2	5.41	0.3	0.00	3.86
Najeh Davenport GB	SEA	26.1	2.76	0.3	0.11	3.29
Cecil Sapp DEN	IND	32.6	0.00	0.0	0.00	3.26
Ricky Williams IND	DEN	10.1	10.76	0.2	0.21	3.18
Chester Taylor* BAL	TEN	11.8	9.23	0.1	0.10	2.65
*Probable (knee)
Mack Strong SEA	GB	9.8	14.21	0.1	0.05	2.63
William Henderson GB	SEA	0.0	14.58	0.0	0.19	2.62
Erik Bickerstaff DAL	CAR	12.8	0.00	0.0	0.21	2.54
Robert Holcombe* TEN	BAL	10.9	7.45	0.1	0.10	2.31
*Questionable (hamstring)
Dominic Rhodes IND	DEN	12.1	5.02	0.0	0.08	2.21
Chris Brown TEN	BAL	16.4	5.12	0.1	0.00	2.06

 
WR:

The creme de la creme here is the trio of Harrison, Jackson, and Mason. Keep an ear out for the injury situations of Green Bay’s widemen – whichever is banged up the least come Sunday could make a solid start. And K-Rob has been fluctuating between frustrating and infuriating this season, but consider rolling the dice on him this Sunday.

WR	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Marvin Harrison IND	DEN	75.58	0.1	0.62	11.12
Darrell Jackson* SEA	GB	74.79	0.1	0.50	10.41
*Probable (ankle)
Derrick Mason* TEN	BAL	75.18	0.0	0.42	10.06
*Questionable (ribs)
Javon Walker* GB	SEA	48.77	0.1	0.56	8.18
*Probable (knee/hamstring)
Steve Smith CAR	DAL	57.19	0.1	0.39	7.92
Koren Robinson SEA	GB	62.86	0.1	0.24	7.64
Reggie Wayne IND	DEN	46.68	0.0	0.40	7.10
Justin McCareins TEN	BAL	46.91	0.0	0.37	6.91
Rod Smith DEN	IND	49.96	0.0	0.19	6.13
Bobby Engram SEA	GB	41.90	0.1	0.33	6.12
Terry Glenn DAL	CAR	44.29	0.1	0.28	6.01
Brandon Stokley IND	DEN	31.34	0.0	0.46	5.91
Marcus Robinson BAL	TEN	33.65	0.0	0.38	5.62
Drew Bennett TEN	BAL	38.77	0.0	0.28	5.57
Travis Taylor BAL	TEN	44.21	0.0	0.18	5.48
Muhsin Muhammad CAR	DAL	46.00	0.2	0.18	5.46
Robert Ferguson* GB	SEA	37.78	0.0	0.27	5.37
*Probable (achilles)
Donald Driver* GB	SEA	45.12	0.0	0.13	5.31
*Probable (ankle)
Joey Galloway DAL	CAR	42.11	0.0	0.12	4.94
Ashley Lelie DEN	IND	34.81	0.0	0.12	4.19
Antonio Bryant DAL	CAR	32.31	0.0	0.11	3.91
Troy Walters IND	DEN	27.10	0.0	0.18	3.82
Tyrone Calico* TEN	BAL	19.58	0.0	0.24	3.41
*Questionable (knee)
Ricky Proehl CAR	DAL	20.04	0.0	0.22	3.33
Frank Sanders* BAL	TEN	14.64	0.0	0.00	1.46
*Questionable (back)
Ed McCaffrey* DEN	IND	14.41	0.0	0.00	1.44
*Questionable (concussion)
Kevin Dyson CAR	DAL	12.37	0.0	0.00	1.24
Aaron Moorehead IND	DEN	12.86	0.1	0.00	1.14
Antonio Freeman GB	SEA	10.24	0.0	0.00	1.02
Alex Bannister SEA	GB	4.01	0.0	0.06	0.73

 
TE:

Marcus Pollard is probable, but with no Dallas Clark, Pollard will almost certainly play. Todd Heap has barely been used since Anthony Wright took over as QB in Baltimore – treat Heap with caution and restraint. A cheerier outlook goes for Itula Mili, however, who’s been a bigger part of the game plan since Mike Holmgren “opened up” the offense.

TE	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Shannon Sharpe DEN	IND	45.53	0.0	0.50	7.57
Todd Heap BAL	TEN	48.48	0.1	0.18	5.84
Itula Mili SEA	GB	32.36	0.0	0.22	4.57
Marcus Pollard* IND	DEN	34.44	0.1	0.20	4.56
*Probable (knee)
Bubba Franks GB	SEA	16.42	0.0	0.25	3.14
Erron Kinney TEN	BAL	21.98	0.1	0.16	3.09
Frank Wycheck TEN	BAL	15.23	0.0	0.17	2.54
Jason Witten* DAL	CAR	21.74	0.0	0.06	2.54
*Questionable (ribs)
Terry Jones BAL	TEN	11.12	0.0	0.18	2.17
Wesley Walls* GB	SEA	17.28	0.0	0.07	2.16
*Questionable (hip)
Dan Campbell DAL	CAR	11.45	0.0	0.06	1.49
David Martin GB	SEA	5.38	0.0	0.12	1.29