By Charles Budd & Steve Maluk, Fantasy Football Cafe Regulars
This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”
Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.
Brett Favre is listed as probable, but if the sun rises on Sunday, then Brett Favre will start for the Packers against Seattle. Las Vegas expects a high-scoring game in Indianapolis, so the value of Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer reflects that both make great starts. Steve McNair? He’s not as certain to be starting as is Favre, but we’d still bet, respectively, our prized Wesley Walker jersey and John Belushi sweatshirt that McNair will play.
QB
Opp
Pass Yds
Int
Sack
Rush Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Brett Favre* GB
SEA
227.9
1.2
1.4
0.87
0.3
2.06
17.35
*Probable (thumb)
Peyton Manning IND
DEN
235.2
0.3
1.2
1.38
0.4
1.64
17.13
Jake Plummer DEN
IND
173.7
0.6
1.2
19.57
0.2
1.60
16.02
Steve McNair* TEN
BAL
200.8
0.7
1.9
8.03
0.9
1.65
14.56
*Questionable (ankle/calf)
Matt Hasselbeck SEA
GB
254.5
1.2
2.6
7.05
0.3
1.43
14.29
Quincy Carter DAL
CAR
193.2
1.2
2.7
14.67
0.5
1.07
9.90
Jake Delhomme CAR
DAL
165.0
0.8
1.4
2.03
0.9
1.13
9.67
Anthony Wright BAL
TEN
192.6
1.4
2.9
6.67
1.3
1.14
8.22
RB:
Clinton Portis and Ahman Green are helmet and shoulder pads above the rest here, though the next four of Shaun, Edge, Jamal, and Stephen could easily break out for huge games. Obviously, if have one of those guys, start them. But we’re thinking that one or two fullbacks (you know, the guys with the oversized shoulder pads) will get a goal-line TD (Mike Anderson?) or catch a pass for a score (Tony Fisher?).
RB
Opp
Rush Yds
Rec Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Clinton Portis* DEN
IND
128.5
21.42
0.2
1.23
22.17
*Probable (ankle)
Ahman Green GB
SEA
109.8
25.00
0.4
1.11
19.70
Shaun Alexander SEA
GB
80.9
19.40
0.3
0.78
14.46
Edgerrin James IND
DEN
82.4
20.02
0.4
0.76
14.43
Jamal Lewis BAL
TEN
88.7
14.34
0.5
0.70
14.01
Stephen Davis CAR
DAL
77.9
9.36
0.2
0.44
11.17
Troy Hambrick DAL
CAR
55.5
5.82
0.3
0.26
7.45
Eddie George TEN
BAL
52.5
9.40
0.1
0.21
7.38
Richie Anderson DAL
CAR
18.6
30.89
0.1
0.30
6.67
Mike Anderson DEN
IND
22.5
3.92
0.2
0.44
5.13
Adrian Murrell DAL
CAR
32.6
10.03
0.0
0.00
4.26
Aveion Cason DAL
CAR
20.1
13.35
0.1
0.17
4.25
DeShaun Foster CAR
DAL
23.2
12.19
0.2
0.13
4.10
Tony Fisher GB
SEA
12.4
14.97
0.0
0.19
3.90
Quentin Griffin DEN
IND
36.2
5.41
0.3
0.00
3.86
Najeh Davenport GB
SEA
26.1
2.76
0.3
0.11
3.29
Cecil Sapp DEN
IND
32.6
0.00
0.0
0.00
3.26
Ricky Williams IND
DEN
10.1
10.76
0.2
0.21
3.18
Chester Taylor* BAL
TEN
11.8
9.23
0.1
0.10
2.65
*Probable (knee)
Mack Strong SEA
GB
9.8
14.21
0.1
0.05
2.63
William Henderson GB
SEA
0.0
14.58
0.0
0.19
2.62
Erik Bickerstaff DAL
CAR
12.8
0.00
0.0
0.21
2.54
Robert Holcombe* TEN
BAL
10.9
7.45
0.1
0.10
2.31
*Questionable (hamstring)
Dominic Rhodes IND
DEN
12.1
5.02
0.0
0.08
2.21
Chris Brown TEN
BAL
16.4
5.12
0.1
0.00
2.06
WR:
The creme de la creme here is the trio of Harrison, Jackson, and Mason. Keep an ear out for the injury situations of Green Bay’s widemen - whichever is banged up the least come Sunday could make a solid start. And K-Rob has been fluctuating between frustrating and infuriating this season, but consider rolling the dice on him this Sunday.
WR
Opp
Rec Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Marvin Harrison IND
DEN
75.58
0.1
0.62
11.12
Darrell Jackson* SEA
GB
74.79
0.1
0.50
10.41
*Probable (ankle)
Derrick Mason* TEN
BAL
75.18
0.0
0.42
10.06
*Questionable (ribs)
Javon Walker* GB
SEA
48.77
0.1
0.56
8.18
*Probable (knee/hamstring)
Steve Smith CAR
DAL
57.19
0.1
0.39
7.92
Koren Robinson SEA
GB
62.86
0.1
0.24
7.64
Reggie Wayne IND
DEN
46.68
0.0
0.40
7.10
Justin McCareins TEN
BAL
46.91
0.0
0.37
6.91
Rod Smith DEN
IND
49.96
0.0
0.19
6.13
Bobby Engram SEA
GB
41.90
0.1
0.33
6.12
Terry Glenn DAL
CAR
44.29
0.1
0.28
6.01
Brandon Stokley IND
DEN
31.34
0.0
0.46
5.91
Marcus Robinson BAL
TEN
33.65
0.0
0.38
5.62
Drew Bennett TEN
BAL
38.77
0.0
0.28
5.57
Travis Taylor BAL
TEN
44.21
0.0
0.18
5.48
Muhsin Muhammad CAR
DAL
46.00
0.2
0.18
5.46
Robert Ferguson* GB
SEA
37.78
0.0
0.27
5.37
*Probable (achilles)
Donald Driver* GB
SEA
45.12
0.0
0.13
5.31
*Probable (ankle)
Joey Galloway DAL
CAR
42.11
0.0
0.12
4.94
Ashley Lelie DEN
IND
34.81
0.0
0.12
4.19
Antonio Bryant DAL
CAR
32.31
0.0
0.11
3.91
Troy Walters IND
DEN
27.10
0.0
0.18
3.82
Tyrone Calico* TEN
BAL
19.58
0.0
0.24
3.41
*Questionable (knee)
Ricky Proehl CAR
DAL
20.04
0.0
0.22
3.33
Frank Sanders* BAL
TEN
14.64
0.0
0.00
1.46
*Questionable (back)
Ed McCaffrey* DEN
IND
14.41
0.0
0.00
1.44
*Questionable (concussion)
Kevin Dyson CAR
DAL
12.37
0.0
0.00
1.24
Aaron Moorehead IND
DEN
12.86
0.1
0.00
1.14
Antonio Freeman GB
SEA
10.24
0.0
0.00
1.02
Alex Bannister SEA
GB
4.01
0.0
0.06
0.73
TE:
Marcus Pollard is probable, but with no Dallas Clark, Pollard will almost certainly play. Todd Heap has barely been used since Anthony Wright took over as QB in Baltimore - treat Heap with caution and restraint. A cheerier outlook goes for Itula Mili, however, who’s been a bigger part of the game plan since Mike Holmgren “opened up” the offense.
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