Super Bowl

By Charles Budd & Steve Maluk

This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”

Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.

QB RB WR TE

QB:

With an over/under of 38 and the Pats favored by 6.5 or 7, that doesn’t give us much scoring – especially not for Carolina who, to make matters worse for all fantasy starters not named Kasay, have scored as many field goals as offensive TDs this season. Regardless, Jake Delhomme is a better play at QB this week than every single NFL quarterback barring one: Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.

QB	Opp	Pass Yds	Int	Sack	Rush Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Tom Brady NE	CAR	213.2	0.86	2.19	3.4	0.72	1.35	12.36
Jake Delhomme CAR	NE	206.1	1.59	1.84	1.7	0.84	0.87	7.75

RB:

DeShaun Foster is again likely to take major carries away from Stephen Davis. But with a two-week rest, Davis may be able to carry at least half the workload. So again, adjust Davis’s predicted points downward a bit and Foster’s upward. The bottom line here is that there should be enough to go around between Stephen and DeShaun considering no team in the NFL was as committed to the running game as John Fox’s Panthers. Note that Mike Cloud was inactive for the championship game against Indy and could again be on the sidelines. Also note that Rod Smart is returning kickoffs for Carolina, so while he’s had no carries or receptions during the playoffs, he could always run a kickoff back all the way. The same goes for Patrick Pass of the Pats – four different guys returned one kickoff each for them last Sunday, Mr. Pass being one of the four.

RB	Opp	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Stephen Davis CAR	NE	76.7	10.9	0.18	0.42	11.12
Antowain Smith NE	CAR	48.2	6.4	0.07	0.25	6.88
*Kevin Faulk NE**	CAR	35.0	27.0	0.24	0.00	5.96
*Questionable (quadriceps)
*Mike Cloud NE**	CAR	21.0	1.5	0.00	0.62	5.96
*May be inactive
DeShaun Foster CAR	NE	26.1	14.0	0.24	0.13	4.56
Larry Centers NE	CAR	6.6	12.0	0.00	0.09	2.38
Nick Goings CAR	NE	3.9	6.4	0.00	0.04	1.26
Brad Hoover CAR	NE	1.3	5.8	0.00	0.08	1.18
Rod Smart CAR	NE	2.2	0.6	0.00	0.00	0.28

WR:

Has anyone else noticed that New England really doesn’t have a certifiable fantasy star on their roster? So how’d they get to the Super Bowl then? Tom Brady may be the closest thing the Pats have to a fantasy standout, and David Givens is surprisingly next in line. Of all the WRs in this game, Givens looks most likely to find the endzone – and that includes Steve Smith, against whom we wouldn’t bet either.

WR	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Steve Smith CAR	NE	77.1	0.11	0.42	10.11
Muhsin Muhammad CAR	NE	59.5	0.22	0.20	6.90
David Givens NE	CAR	38.5	0.00	0.47	6.66
Deion Branch NE	CAR	47.1	0.00	0.18	5.77
Troy Brown NE	CAR	39.0	0.00	0.29	5.62
Ricky Proehl CAR	NE	21.3	0.00	0.19	3.24
Dedric Ward NE	CAR	20.4	0.00	0.17	3.04
Bethel Johnson NE	CAR	15.2	0.06	0.18	2.52
Kevin Dyson CAR	NE	3.8	0.00	0.00	0.38
Karl Hankton CAR	NE	2.0	0.00	0.00	0.20

TE:

New England’s tight ends are a much bigger part of the offense than are their Carolina counterparts. This makes Graham your best bet.

TE	Opp	Rec Yds	Fum	TDs	Pts
Daniel Graham NE	CAR	24.4	0.06	0.25	3.88
Christian Fauria NE	CAR	17.8	0.00	0.11	2.45
Kris Mangum CAR	NE	10.7	0.00	0.00	1.07
Jermaine Wiggins CAR	NE	5.5	0.00	0.05	0.83