By Charles Budd & Steve Maluk, Fantasy Football Cafe Regulars
This is a computerized ranking system created by Charles Budd and Steve Maluk (known in the forums as Buckychudd and Wesley Walker). Factors considered include 2003 performance of players and opposing defenses as well as the Vegas over/under and point spreads (to predict scoring). Players on byes are obviously not included, nor are players listed as “out” or “doubtful.”
Point projections are based on the following scoring system: 1 point for 25 yards passing or 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 points per TD; -1 per sack or fumble; -2 per interception thrown.
With an over/under of 38 and the Pats favored by 6.5 or 7, that doesn’t give us much scoring - especially not for Carolina who, to make matters worse for all fantasy starters not named Kasay, have scored as many field goals as offensive TDs this season. Regardless, Jake Delhomme is a better play at QB this week than every single NFL quarterback barring one: Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.
QB
Opp
Pass Yds
Int
Sack
Rush Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Tom Brady NE
CAR
213.2
0.86
2.19
3.4
0.72
1.35
12.36
Jake Delhomme CAR
NE
206.1
1.59
1.84
1.7
0.84
0.87
7.75
RB:
DeShaun Foster is again likely to take major carries away from Stephen Davis. But with a two-week rest, Davis may be able to carry at least half the workload. So again, adjust Davis’s predicted points downward a bit and Foster’s upward. The bottom line here is that there should be enough to go around between Stephen and DeShaun considering no team in the NFL was as committed to the running game as John Fox’s Panthers. Note that Mike Cloud was inactive for the championship game against Indy and could again be on the sidelines. Also note that Rod Smart is returning kickoffs for Carolina, so while he’s had no carries or receptions during the playoffs, he could always run a kickoff back all the way. The same goes for Patrick Pass of the Pats - four different guys returned one kickoff each for them last Sunday, Mr. Pass being one of the four.
RB
Opp
Rush Yds
Rec Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Stephen Davis CAR
NE
76.7
10.9
0.18
0.42
11.12
Antowain Smith NE
CAR
48.2
6.4
0.07
0.25
6.88
Kevin Faulk* NE
CAR
35.0
27.0
0.24
0.00
5.96
*Questionable (quadriceps)
Mike Cloud* NE
CAR
21.0
1.5
0.00
0.62
5.96
*May be inactive
DeShaun Foster CAR
NE
26.1
14.0
0.24
0.13
4.56
Larry Centers NE
CAR
6.6
12.0
0.00
0.09
2.38
Nick Goings CAR
NE
3.9
6.4
0.00
0.04
1.26
Brad Hoover CAR
NE
1.3
5.8
0.00
0.08
1.18
Rod Smart CAR
NE
2.2
0.6
0.00
0.00
0.28
WR:
Has anyone else noticed that New England really doesn’t have a certifiable fantasy star on their roster? So how’d they get to the Super Bowl then? Tom Brady may be the closest thing the Pats have to a fantasy standout, and David Givens is surprisingly next in line. Of all the WRs in this game, Givens looks most likely to find the endzone - and that includes Steve Smith, against whom we wouldn’t bet either.
WR
Opp
Rec Yds
Fum
TDs
Pts
Steve Smith CAR
NE
77.1
0.11
0.42
10.11
Muhsin Muhammad CAR
NE
59.5
0.22
0.20
6.90
David Givens NE
CAR
38.5
0.00
0.47
6.66
Deion Branch NE
CAR
47.1
0.00
0.18
5.77
Troy Brown NE
CAR
39.0
0.00
0.29
5.62
Ricky Proehl CAR
NE
21.3
0.00
0.19
3.24
Dedric Ward NE
CAR
20.4
0.00
0.17
3.04
Bethel Johnson NE
CAR
15.2
0.06
0.18
2.52
Kevin Dyson CAR
NE
3.8
0.00
0.00
0.38
Karl Hankton CAR
NE
2.0
0.00
0.00
0.20
TE:
New England’s tight ends are a much bigger part of the offense than are their Carolina counterparts. This makes Graham your best bet.
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