New Year, New Game

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Like football itself, the fantasy game is constantly evolving. From new rules options to innovative strategies, each new season brings changes that keep even the most experienced fantasy owners on their toes, and keep the game itself fresh. Let’s take a look at the most important trends we’ve been seeing this year.

The Year of the Running Back

Remember when quarterbacks such as Steve Young or Kurt Warner were the first players chosen in fantasy drafts? Not this season. In fact, you’ll now see drafts without a single QB going off the board in the first round; this year, it’s all about running backs.

The reason for the RB frenzy is clear: even though quarterbacks score more points in many leagues, you can wait until the opening rounds are over and still grab an excellent passer. Just as league parity has changed the NFL, QB parity has changed fantasy draft strategies. Miss out on Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb? No problam. Simply grab a Drew Bledsoe or a Matt Hasselbeck a bit later.

The situation at wide receiver is similar. While stars such as Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison are considerably more valuable than other receivers, there is enough depth – and above all, enough sleeper candidates – that a savvy drafter can find very productive options well into the draft.

If, on the other hand, you fail to draft one of the league’s elite rushers early, you’ll have a much harder time making up that deficit. In contrast to WRs, finding a sleeper RB is very difficult, and will cost you a large portion of your bench if you gamble on backups who could turn into starters.

There are certainly strategies, such as relying on a QB-WR combination like Manning-to-Harrison, that don’t depend on having a star RB, but they’re all risky. Starting Antowain Smith as your feature back while your opponents field Ricky Williams or LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the easiest way to a fantasy championship…

Passing Fancy or Here to Stay?

Running backs will always be important in fantasy football, but the extreme focus on the position that we’re seeing this year won’t last forever. The next time a quarterback posts numbers reminiscent of Warner’s 1999 outburst, we’ll all be falling over ourselves to grab that passer, even if it means passing on a first-tier RB.

Paying Attention to Tight Ends

Not so long ago, tight ends were a mere afterthought for most fantasy owners, who were content to start Jay Riemersma and hope for a line of one reception, one yard, and one touchdown. Any points a tight end scored were considered a bonus, and zero-point efforts were shrugged off. Not any more…

This season, the question of when to draft a TE is one of the key decisions facing fantasy owners. With tight ends such as Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap producing numbers comparable to those of many wide receivers, nobody is ignoring the position any longer. An elite TE gives a team an advantage similar to having an extra man on the field; consequently, the top players are being taken very early in most drafts, and even those passing on the elite tight ends are making sure they land a capable sleeper.

Passing Fancy or Here to Stay?

As long as NFL teams continue to involve tight ends in their offensive schemes more than ever before, fantasy owners can’t afford to ignore this position. The main question is whether players such as Randy McMichael or Billy Miller can narrow the gap separating them from the ‘big three’ of Shockey, Gonzalez and Heap. If they do, tight ends may not be taken quite as early in upcoming years, but we’ll certainly continue to pay attention to this once neglected position.

Individual Defensive Players

More and more leagues are switching from team defenses to individual defensive players (IDP’s) in an effort to add further realism and depth to fantasy leagues.

Are individual defenders a better option than team defenses? No, but it’s nice to be able to choose between the two, both of which have their advantages. In the end, it’s a matter of taste, but no matter which you prefer, the more options available to fantasy players, the better.

IDP’s add realism and complexity, but they also bring a bit of a random factor to games. The points scored by defenders fluctuate greatly from week to week, particularly for players who pick up their points via sacks and interceptions rather than tackles. Likewise, deciding on which IDP’s to start based on matchups is a far greater gamble than it is for team defenses.

Team defenses are far more reliable. They’re also more traditional, and allow owners to focus on offense. But who can resist the challenge of putting together a top-notch defense piece by piece? Besides, using IDP’s makes this year’s draft class far more interesting.

Passing Fancy or Here to Stay?

The popularity of IDP’s is still on the upswing and shows no sign of slowing down. Look for this trend to continue, with all major league services providing this option in the future. If anything, look for the role of IDPs to expand, and greater differentiation between positions (such as cornerback and safety, which are usually lumped together as defensive backs) to be added.

Future Watch

So what does the future hold when we look beyond the upcoming season? Above all, we should expect to see an ever-increasing number of options for fantasy players, such as the possibility of including punters on fantasy rosters. One of the options that may well increase in popularity is the auction format, which provides different challenges than serpentine drafts.

Unfortunately, we might also see the demise of free leagues, as more and more sites shift to a pay format. The impact of this on the fantasy community isn’t difficult to imagine: not only would numerous casual leagues fold, but less newcomers would try fantasy football in the first place. Hopefully, this is one change that won’t come about.

 
Arlo Vander’s league has used IDP’s for the last four seasons. He’s hoping for a bit more production from his defensive backs this year.

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