The Numbers Don’t Lie … Do They?
Or: Not Another Draft Article!

The Final Answer to: “What position should I draft in which round?”

Fantasy owners frequently ask about draft order. “Should I draft RB, RB, WR, WR, QB … or RB, RB, RB, WR, WR … or what?” This article is intended to help beginning and intermediate fantasy football players to make their own informed decisions on which position to draft in a particular round, yet even experienced players may raise an eyebrow or two.

Here is the round by round breakdown of a fantasy mock draft, to illustrate what’s happening in a fairly typical draft situation. (Just keep in mind that this is a private draft with experienced players; public drafts, particularly auto-drafts, can take some weird turns. Last year, I saw 10 QB’s taken in the first round of an automated draft, as nearly everyone scrambled for Kurt Warner. Because of this configuration , I ended up with Priest Holmes as my second RB.)

I used Jiac’s Mock Draft here on the Cafe for my numbers. There were twelve teams and fourteen rounds of drafting. The total number of players drafted by position were 46 RB, 56 WR, 26 QB, 12 TE, 16 DEF, 12 PK. Let’s take a round by round look at the draft, with an emphasis on the total number of players by position NOT available any more by the end of each round.

First, the numbers:

RD 1 — 9 RB, 2 WR, 1 QB, 0 TE, 0 DT, 0 PK
RD 2 — 9 RB, 1 WR, 2 QB, 0 TE, 0 DT, 0 PK (Total – 18 RB, 3 WR, 3 QB)
RD 3 — 3 RB, 6 WR, 3 QB, 0 TE, 0 DT, 0 PK (Total – 21 RB, 9 WR, 6 QB)
RD 4 — 2 RB, 7 WR, 1 QB, 2 TE, 0 DT, 0 PK (Total – 23 RB, 16 WR, 7 QB, 2 TE)
RD 5 — 1 RB, 7 WR, 2 QB, 1 TE, 1 DT, 0 PK (Total – 24 RB, 23 WR, 9 QB, 3 TE, 1 DT)
RD 6 — 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 QB, 0 TE, 3 DT, 0 PK (Total – 26 RB, 28 WR, 11 QB, 3 TE, 4 DT)
RD 7 — 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 QB, 1 TE, 2 DT, 0 PK (Total – 28 RB, 33 WR, 13 QB, 4 TE, 6 DT)
RD 8 — 4 RB, 3 WR, 2 QB, 2 TE, 1 DT, 0 PK (Total – 32 RB, 36 WR, 15 QB, 6 TE, 7 DT)
RD 9 — 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 QB, 4 TE, 2 DT, 0 PK (Total – 34 RB, 38 WR, 17 QB, 10 TE, 9 DT)
RD 10 – 0 RB, 2 WR, 0 QB, 0 TE, 1 DT, 9 PK (Total – 34 RB, 40 WR, 17 QB, 10 TE, 10 DT, 9 PK)
RD 11 – 2 RB, 0 WR, 5 QB, 1 TE, 3 DT, 1 PK (Total – 36 RB, 40 WR, 22 QB, 11 TE, 13 DT, 10 PK)
RD 12 – 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 QB, 1 TE, 1 DT, 1 PK (Total – 38 RB, 45 WR, 24 QB, 12 TE, 14 DT, 11 PK)
RD 13 – 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 QB, 0 TE, 2 DT, 1 PK (Total – 40 RB, 50 WR, 26 QB, 12 TE, 16 DT, 12 PK)
RD 14 – 6 RB, 6 WR, 0 QB, 0 TE, 0 DT, 0 PK (Total – 46 RB, 56 WR, 26 QB, 12 TE, 16 DT, 12 PK)

The chart shows why you need to grab RBs early in many draft formats. By the end of the first round, nine of the top ten RBs are off the board. By the end of the second round, more than half of the league’s starters are off the board, meaning that late second round/early third round picks are already dredging from the bottom half of NFL running backs. If you draft RB, RB the first two rounds, you are still likely to get a top ten WR with your third pick, or a top six QB if you choose to go that route. By the end of the fifth round, RBs and WRs really even out fairly well in terms of the total amount selected, but remember that there are twice as many starting WRs as there are feature RBs.

One thing that does stick out is that 18 RBs are off the board by the end of the second round, so if you only take one RB in the first two rounds, you might as well wait until MUCH later to take a second RB or you will also miss out on talent at the other positions. From the end of Round 2 to the end of Round 7, only ten RBs are selected. If you’ve ever spent your third or fourth round pick on a running back and felt like the rest of the draft was pretty sour from then on, you know why. Everyone else is one step ahead of you. The people who favor drafting RB,RB,RB in the first three rounds ought to take a look at the numbers and see that the third pick is virtually wasted. Looking at the worst case scenario, the third RB pick would be the 23rd rusher chosen in the draft, when you could have grabbed the number 9 wide receiver instead.

The basic argument for grabbing three running backs at the beginning of the draft is that you will have a quality backup at the key RB position. To me, that’s approaching fantasy football from a negative perspective – that of fearing injury. In any game, fantasy or otherwise, we should always try our best to win. If you’re concerned about injury, draft your key players’ backups in later rounds and spend your important early draft picks on the best possible players.

Some thoughts on the positions:

RBs are wise choices for the first two rounds, WRs in the 3rd and 4th rounds, a QB in the 5th round, then maybe bounce back in the 6th round for a 3rd RB. One of the best ways to draft is to make a cheat sheet and then mark on it how low you’re willing to draft at any one position. For example, you may feel that there are eight standout QBs. Looking at the numbers above, you’d probably have to draft a QB before the end of the 5th round in order to get a guy you’d like.

Keep in mind that the top RBs will outscore all of the wide receivers (Marvin Harrison fans note that Priest Holmes scored more than twice as many TD’s as Harrison last year and that the top eight RBs outscored every one of the WRs, including Harrison, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, and Eric Moulds). In yardage, only Harrison was able to compete with the top half dozen runningbacks. The numbers suggest that Harrison is the only wide receiver worthy of first round consideration, and then only if the top seven or eight RBs are already off the board. Just remember that if you do pick Harrison in the first round, you should draft a RB in the 2nd, then hold off for a few rounds on getting another RB, or you will be getting everyone else’s leftovers at WR, QB, TE, etc.

Some positions are difficult to draft, especially if your draft is held before the preseason. Defenses are hard to rate until you actually see them play against good offenses. There are only a handful of decent tight ends, and because of that the truly good ones tend to get drafted “too early” in most fantasy experts’ opinions. If you want Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez, or Randy McMichael, you’re probably going to have to grab one of them by the end of the 7th round, while other players are still loading up on RBs, WRs, and QBs.

Don’t feel like you have to draft a particular position in any certain round. Pay attention to who is still available. I often grab a QB in the 5th or 6th round but I’ve waited until the 8th or 9th in drafts where plenty of good QBs have been left available. Just remember that a run can start on any position. Look at kickers in the numbers above. None are chosen in the first nine rounds, then nine are chosen in the 10th round. You do have to keep in mind that even if Tom Brady, Tommy Maddox, Brad Johnson, etc. are still on the board at the end of your current round, they might all be gone by the end of the next.

Do numbers lie?

I’ve left the opening question unanswered … do the numbers lie?

No.

And Yes.

No, in that these players were selected in that order in a fairly typical mock draft. You’re not going to draft WR,WR in the first two rounds, and then magically find the top-rated running back still available in round 3. BUT – yes, the numbers do lie, because none of us have the psychic ability to determine exactly how each player is going to finish in fantasy scoring, so a player chosen 20th may wind up doing better overall in points than the number 1 draft choice. We are choosing players based on their Expected Value, which is based on past performance, expert opinions on their ability, and the opportunity they are likely to have to shine, as well as the team they’re on, the teams they play against, their health, etc.

Injury, and recovery from injury, are two of the biggest factors in fantasy football. For the upcoming 2003 season, if Priest Holmes comes in healthy and stays healthy, he might easily regain his top fantasy position. If, on the other hand, he goes down in the preseason, his backup, Larry Johnson, could have a 1,000+ yard season and be the steal of the fantasy drafts. Sometimes you just have to follow your gut instincts (or Cafe regular Guttpuppy) and draft the guys you believe in. Is everyone else saying that Peerless Price isn’t going to amount to anything in Atlanta? What do you think? Does everyone else belive that Ricky Williams is going to be the top RB while you predict the extra workload is going to put him on the IR early in the season? In the end, the numbers can only be your guide. You still have to decide where you’re going in a fantasy draft. May your destination be a fantasy championship!

 
Bob Haynes, a seasonal Cafe regular who posts as DraftDodger, has been watching NFL football since the Patriots’ ill-fated ‘86 Superbowl appearance. He is a native of Peru … Peru, Maine, that is. Bob is convinced that there is some mystical mathematical formula for constructing the perfect fantasy football team, and heavy medication hasn’t dissuaded him from that belief.

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