Spotlight Game of the Week: Tampa Bay vs. Carolina

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Today is the first installment of what will hopefully become a Cafe favorite, the Game of the Week. Every week I will be looking into the matchups and focusing on one that looks like it could have a big impact on both the NFL and Fantasy Football. Feel free to send as much feedback on this as you want; not only will it be appreciated, but encouraged.

Ok, down to business…

This week, the spotlight is on Tampa Bay @ Carolina. To me, this game has the biggest effect on the NFL for the week. Not only does it involve the Super Bowl champions, but also a surprise team in the Panthers. To add even more drama, this is a battle for supremacy in the NFC South. Right now Carolina leads the pack, namely TB, by two games, but if the Bucs can pull off a win that lead will drop to only one game and the division will be blown wide open for almost anyone to step up and take it.

Carolina

Here’s the gist on Carolina. First off, after an amazing 5-0 start, they got thumped by Tennessee by 20 points. They followed that up by squeaking out an overtime win over their division rival New Orleans, and finally with a shocking loss to the Houston Texans last week. So to say the least, Carolina is definitely not on a roll at this point. They will need to overcome all of the adversity of coming off of a demoralizing loss to battle one of the better teams in the NFL. The one thing on their side is that they already beat the Bucs. This may not seem like a big deal, but a team trying to rebound against the champs needs all the help it can get. Obviously, running the ball is the Panthers’ strong suit. They need Stephen Davis (or DeShaun Foster, should Davis be unavailable) to have a big day, similar to their first match-up when he racked up 142 yards on the ground.

Tampa Bay

Inconsistency. That’s the easiest way to sum up the defending Super Bowl champions. They have been on/off so much that by now we never know what to expect. This year, they have been alternating wins and losses all season. Sometimes they show last year’s dominant form, as seen in weeks 1 and 8 where they pitched shutouts to the Eagles in Philly and the surprise Cowboys. Another thing to take into consideration here is that two of their losses have come in overtime to teams leading their respective divisions (Carolina and Indianapolis). Their main goal will obviously be to put the clamps on Carolina’s running backs. That means they should play with eight men in the box often in order to stuff the run. This will force Jake Delhomme to beat them through the air and we all know the Bucs get as much pressure on quarterbacks as any team in the league. On offense, they need to move the ball through the air enough to keep the Panthers from focusing solely on the run. Carolina’s secondary has shown occasional weaknesses all season and the Bucs need to take advantage of that.

Overview

This game ultimately comes down to which team can establish the run more efficiently. Both of these teams are highly skilled at controlling and ball and playing for field position. Because of these similar styles, special teams will play a huge role in this game. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina has Steve Smith who has proved to be a double threat as a returner and a solid target for Delhomme. Overall though, I think Tampa will have a better day and continue their win-loss back and forth season. Look for them to win in another low scoring affair.

Fantasy Impact

Good starts: Stephen Davis (if cleared to start), Brad Johnson, Steve Smith (in leagues that count return yards)

Bad starts: Michael Pittman, Keyshawn Johnson

Sleeper pick of the week: Keenan McCardell. I think he will see a fair amount of one-on-one coverage to exploit. I expect to see four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown.

 
Nick Trione, known to all in the forums as kashikis, selects the Cafe’s Pick3 games each week. Naturally, this matchup is one of this week’s three contests.