Spotlight Game of the Week: New England vs. Indianapolis

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The Spotlight is back again this week to look at a huge game in the AFC. So let’s get right down to business…

This week, the focus is on the New England @ Indianapolis matchup. This should be an epic battle between two very good teams, and a lot rides on this game. Not only is the #2 seed in the AFC at hand but also a shot to dethrone Kansas City if the Chiefs should slip. Both the Colts and the Patriots sit at 9-2 and lead their respective division. Indy is currently battling with the Titans for the AFC South crown and Miami is hot on the tails of New England, so as a loss for either team could drop them down from the #2 seed to a lowly wild card slot. This should be a tense, hard-fought contest that could develop into a classic offense vs. defense game.

New England

The Patriots are out to prove to the world that they are for real, and have showed great poise over the last few games. Two weeks ago, they shut out Tuna and his Cowboys and followed that effort with a clutch overtime win against an under-rated Texans team. Bill Belichick has this team rolling coming down the stretch. They had the guts to tough it out early in the season and are still battling a horde of injuries.

New England has become pretty much a one-dimensional team because their running game is just plain bad, barely averaging over 100 yards per game so far this season. They have managed to play the dump off and screen plays fairly well this year to help compensate for the lack of a ground attack. Expect Kevin Faulk to continue to produce, in part by catching a fair amount of passes. Also look for Daniel Graham to exploit a matchup or two over the middle or out in the flats, especially in the red zone. The emergence of Bethel Johnson has also been a huge help in surviving with a beat up WR corps.

Indianapolis

Indianapolis has been solid as solid can be this year. They don’t have any gaping holes anywhere as far as I can tell. With Edge back to his old self, Peyton Manning has been able to use the play-action pass to befuddle defenses, and mind you, Manning is among the best play-action QBs in the league. Obviously, the Colts’ offense is as potent as any in the league, with arguably the prettiest QB to WR combo in the game right now in Manning to Marvin.

The real key to this team’s success, though, is its defense. Tony Dungy has finally turned this unit around, and the Colts defense is ranked #12 overall this year, and is in the top five against the pass. Their ability to stuff most passing offenses definitely fits the bill this week, especially because of the Pats’ love of throwing the ball. Also look for Indy to switch up the offense early and often to try and disrupt the Patriots defense. They should switch readily between the two TE set and a lone back set when the want to spread the field.

Overview

Since this game has so much riding on it, I expect both teams to pull out all the stops. Peyton Manning has traditionally had difficulty with Bill Belichick’s defensive scheming, but I expect that to change this week. The Colts’ offense seems to be running on all cylinders right now and I doubt that any defense could truly hold them down. I look for this game to be a slugfest with both teams scoring 20+ points.

The Colts’ game plan will need to inject a heavy dose of Edge into the Patriots’ defense to keep them honest. If you let them sit back and wait for you, Belichick will have them eating you alive. This will also set up that great play-action that Peyton runs, and if you get a safety to jump or hesitate, Marvin and Wayne will burn the corner left in man coverage most of the time.

The Pats need to establish some sort of running game. Last week they did so very effectively with Faulk, who had over 180 total yards. I don’t expect him to do quite that well, but he needs to get over 100, probably closer to 120, for New England to stay in this one. Look for a lot of swing passes from Tom Brady, who will try and spread the field like crazy to try and break down the Colts’ great pass defense. When the dust settles, though, I expect the Colts to come out on top this time.

Fantasy Impact

Good starts: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison (Red Flag: see below), Edgerrin James, Kevin Faulk, Tom Brady. Also either Graham or Clark would be a solid play here if you must start a TE.

Bad starts: Troy Brown, Antowain Smith, Deion Branch

Sleeper pick of the week: Reggie Wayne – Belichick tends to like to remove the best offensive player from the game, and that’s Marvin Harrison. Especially with Harrison coming off an injury, I could see Dungy using him as a decoy to get the Patriots’ defense to bite at him while opening up Wayne on the other side.

 
Nick Trione’s Spotlight Game of the Week is a weekly feature at the Cafe. You can catch up with Nick in the forums, where he shares his fantasy knowledge under the name of kashikis.