NFL Rookie Draft Predictions

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It’s still quite early to form a conclusive opinion about the upcoming NFL Draft, but with the free agency picture somewhat sorted out, Ben Kearon feels we have enough new information to paint a slightly more accurate picture than was the case in February.

Thanks again to Ben, familiar to Forum visitors as Canadian_Cheesehead, for keeping us updated!
 

1. San Diego: Eli Manning (QB) – No change here; Manning is still the best player in the draft, and should stay at the top of the list for the time being. However, with the trade of David Boston to Miami, Larry Fitzgerald or Mike Williams could easily be the call here for the Chargers. Also, the Cardinals are looking to move up to snag Fitzgerald, so this pick could be dealt as well.

2. Oakland: Larry Fitzgerald (WR) – With Tim Brown and Jerry Rice ready for retirement, and Jerry Porter obviously not able to do it alone, the Raiders will take the best WR prospect to come along in a long time. Oakland has countless needs, but Fitzgerald is the best player available.

3. Arizona: Mike Williams (WR) – The first sophomore to take advantage of the Maurice Clarett ruling, many people have Williams rated on par with Fitzgerald. The USC star is huge, has great hands, and has a nose for the endzone. A great consolation prize for Dennis Green.

4. New York Giants: Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – He could easily go to the Cards, but with Kerry Collins getting old and Jesse Palmer obviously not the long-term answer, it would be hard for New York to pass on Roethlisberger if he’s still available. Robert Gallery would also be a great fit for the Giants.

5. Washington: Tommie Harris (DT) – Instinct says this pick will be moved, but as long as the Redskins don’t sign Warren Sapp, Harris would be an excellent selection here. Undersized but extremely effective, he should make a great pro.

6. Detroit: Sean Taylor (S) – Probably the best player in the draft, and an absolute steal at #6, Taylor would be a great addition to the Lions’ decrepit secondary. He is fast, strong, and supremely athletic. He could also be gone by this point, by virtue of the Raiders or the Redskins.

7. Cleveland: Robert Gallery (OT) – Gallery could be a dominant tackle along the lines of Orlando Pace or Walter Jones, although a notch below Jonathan Ogden. He is fast, has good coordination and technique, and most of all is massive. He would be a steal at #7, but could easily go to the Giants at #4 or to the Chargers should they trade down.

8. Atlanta: Vince Wilfork (DT) – Even with the recent addition of Rod Coleman, the Falcons’ line is still weak. With a huge stopper like Wilfork it can only get better. The Miami (Fla.) standout improved his stock by arriving at the combine weighing significantly less than previously reported. He doesn’t have quite as much upside as Harris, but should be a decent pick at this point. Other options here include Shawn Andrews and Roy Williams.

9. Jacksonville: Roy Williams (WR) – Williams would be the first WR taken in almost any other draft, but with Mike Williams and Fitzgerald also available, he should slip a bit. Roy Williams is the fastest player of this elite trio, but he is smaller and more injury-prone. Pairing him with Byron Leftwich should make for a lethal tandem for years to come. Kenechi Udeze and Chris Gamble are also options here.

10. Houston: Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE) – The best TE prospect ever is a great pick here at the ten spot. He has great hands, and were it not for some attitude problems he could go even higher. This is not the most logical pick here, but it’s nearly inconceivable that Winslow drops out of the top ten. Chris Gamble or Kenechi Udeze would fill needs here, but most coaches will tell you they would rather have Winslow than either of those guys. He could possibly go to the Redskins, Lions, or even Browns, but with such a deep draft he may still be on the board when Houston picks.

11. Pittsburgh: Philip Rivers (QB) – Rivers would be a good pick for the Steelers: following a prolific college career, he seems to be a better option than Tommy Maddox. Rivers has an unorthodox delivery but should make a pretty good pro. Steven Jackson looked like the logical choice for this pick back in February, but the signing of Duce Staley changed that. This is possibly a bit too high for Rivers, and Pittsburgh could just as well address another need by choosing the pick of this year’s cornerback litter.

12. New York Jets: Chris Gamble (CB) – Gamble is a shutdown corner and could end up being one of the top players in the draft. Missing out on Antoine Winfield hurt the Jets, and picking up Gamble should numb some of the pain. The Jets are also weak at linebacker, so DJ Williams or Jonathan Vilma could be picked here, although it is probably too early for either of these LBs.

13. Buffalo: Kenechi Udeze (DE) – Udeze had a great campaign at USC and would be a very nice pickup for Buffalo. He could easily be gone, however, because many other teams also have needs at DE. With the loss of Winfield, a CB might be selected here, and if Gamble falls to them, the Bills should take a long hard look at him.

14. Chicago: Shawn Andrews (OT) – Andrews is a massive tackle who would be a good addition even if the Bears do get John Tait. The Bears recently signed Thomas Jones so having two good run-blocking tackles would be an excellent foundation for a rebuilding offense. If Harris or Wilfork fall to them, there seems to be little chance Chicago doesn’t take one of them, but there is a significant drop-off in talent at the DT position after these two blue-chippers.

15. Tampa Bay: Vernon Carey (G-OT) – Kevin Jones would make a lot of sense here, but with the apparent signing of Charlie Garner he is not really needed. The Buccaneers’ line, however, is weak, and the versatile Carey would strengthen it significantly.

16. San Francisco: Reggie Williams (WR) – Another WR whose status is hurt by the two sophomores, Fitzgerald and Mike Williams, and would be a higher draft pick most other years. With the loss of TO and Tai Streets, Williams makes sense here as Brandon Lloyd doesn’t appear to be a viable #1 WR yet. A DT is also a possibility here.

17. Cincinnati: DeAngelo Hall (CB) – Hall worked out very well at the combine, and if the Bengals fail to sign Troy Vincent he would be a smart pick here. He is the most athletic player in the draft, and would serve as a great kick returner if Peter Warrick were not already there.

18. New Orleans: Dunta Robinson (CB) – Another supremely athletic CB who ran very well at the combine, Robinson is a bit raw but would provide an infusion of youth into the Saints’ veteran secondary. A LB might also be an option for this pick as the Saints had trouble stopping the run last year.

19. Minnesota: Will Smith (DE) – Smith is a steal here at #19 and fills one of the Vikings’ only remaining needs. The signing of Winfield helped their secondary, and they can now address the defensive line with this pick. Smith was very effective as a senior at Ohio State and should be a good defensive end in the NFL. DJ Williams is also a solid option for the Vikings.

20. Miami: Michael Clayton (WR) – Clayton ran a slow 4.64 40 at the combine but is still a first round talent. The Dolphins could use offensive linemen, but with the premier OLs gone at this point, Clayton is a nice pick even following the acquisition of Boston.

21. New England (via Baltimore): Kevin Jones (RB) – Jones is great value at this stage and an ideal fit for the Pats as well. He is quicker and has more breakaway speed than Steven Jackson, and many people think he is the better back. This is the Patriots’ primary need and they will likely add depth at other positions with their second first-round pick.

22. Dallas: Steven Jackson (RB) – A pounding back with good speed and catching ability in the Ricky Williams mold. This is the dream pick for the Cowboys, and while it might be a surprise if Jackson drops this low, with many teams not in pressing need of a running back, it’s certainly not impossible.

23. Seattle: Randy Starks (DT) – Starks is a great raw tackle that could be a fantastic NFL pro. This is the ideal match for the Seahawks, but he could also go to either the 49ers or Dallas (should they not get Jackson or Jones). He played in the 3-4 at Maryland but should be able to make the transition to the NFL easily. This is the most glaring area of need for the Seahawks and it’s hard to imagine them lookng anywhere else than the defensive line.

24. Denver: Antwan Odom (DE) – The Broncos could use this pick on a RB, but given their success in selecting RBs in the later rounds Odom would be a good pick. Bert Berry left for the Cardinals and Odom was a very productive end in college. The DT spot is also a concern due to Daryl Gardener’s disappointing showing, and Denver could as easily address that deficiency.

25. Green Bay: JP Losman (QB) – Brett Favre is getting up there in years and a replacement is going to be necessary. Most projections aren’t quite as high on Losman, but he has the tools and could very well be a Pro Bowl NFL QB if he puts it all together. DE is also a concern and Marquise Hill would be worth considering as well.

26. St. Louis: Ben Troupe (TE) – Troupe is a a fantastic tight end and a great pick late in the first round. The Rams haven’t had a good TE for some time, but selecting Troupe would change all that. St. Louis is always a bit of a wild card at the draft, however, so it’s hard to know what to expect. Will Poole would also be a viable option should they lose Jarametrius Butler.

27. Tennessee: Marquise Hill (DE) – The Titans’ once dominant defensive line took a hit this off-season with the losses of Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith. Hill is a huge end that could also spend time at tackle, which makes him all the more valuable. This is probably Tennessee’s best option, although the o-line needs a bit of work too.

28. Philadelphia: Lee Evans (WR) – Evans is thoroughly underrated, but after a strong showing at the combine, he may sneak his way into the first round. Prior to his injury he was almost as good a prospect as Larry Fitzgerald or Mike Williams. The Eagles failed to address their pathetic WR corps again this off-season, and unless they get Terrell Owens after all, a WR should be the pick here. Even if they do get Owens, pairing him with Evans would make for a very productive Donovan McNabb.

29. Indianapolis: Jonathan Vilma (LB) – Vilma is a fantastic athlete and had a great career at Miami. Rob Morris is not cutting it for the Colts, and Vilma would be a significant upgrade. If Vilma were a bit taller he would be an early first round pick, but he lacks size and therefore drops to this spot. This would be a very nice choice for the Colts, but they could also spend it on a CB such as Derrick Strait.

30. Kansas City: Marcus Tubbs (DT) – Despite the Chiefs’ record of 12-4, almost every position on their defense needs to be upgraded, and a good WR wouldn’t hurt either. Tubbs was great at Texas and should help to plug some of the holes other teams were running through. The run defense was horrendous at the end of the year and Tubbs could soften the damage quite a bit. Many people are high on Igor Olshansky, but the Oregon DT may not be experienced enough to be chosen in the first round.

31. Carolina: DJ Williams (LB) – Another extremely athletic linebacker, Williams is probably better than this draft spot indicates, but he didn’t decide whether he would play LB or FB until he was at Miami. He has great potential, and even though the Panthers’ run D was great last year, that was primarily because of the defensive line. WR or CB could also be addressed with this pick.

32. New England: Michael Jenkins (WR) – While the Patriots already have a truckload of young WRs, they do not have one as big and strong as Jenkins. New England has two more picks in the second round and they could also wait until then to address WR. Jenkins is a good talent, but with the loss of Woody the Pats would have to look hard at Vernon Carey if he falls this far, or possibly Chris Snee.