Picking The Passers

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Which quarterback should you take?

Fantasy pundits often advise against taking a QB in round one of the draft, and they’re right. Owners should stay away from signal-callers in the early going. Teams can get away with having their best quarterback be nothing more than mediocre. On the other hand, if your top running back or wide receiver is only average, you’re probably in a lot of trouble. Quarterbacks are important nonetheless, but shouldn’t be taken until round two at the earliest in average-sized leagues.

Here are the top 20 for 2004, as ranked by fantasy writer Ryan Fay (known in the Forums as RFay8585):
 

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Manning, 28, was the co-MVP last season, passing for 4,267 yards while sporting a 29-10 TD-INT ratio. He was accurate as ever, completing 67% of his passes. Manning is the most consistent signal-caller in the game, having thrown at least 26 touchdown passes in every professional season. What’s more, he has never missed a game in his pro career, making him one of the safest picks out there.

2. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
McNabb was horrendous for the first half of the 2003 season, but came alive afterwards, posting a 3-to-1 TD-INT ratio in games 9-16. McNabb has always put up great numbers – through the air and on the ground – despite not having anyone worthwhile to throw to. That changes this year as Terrell Owens comes over from San Francisco. It’s scary to imagine how good McNabb can be with a great receiver to work with. We’re about to find out.

3. Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota
Culpepper threw for 3,479 yards last season, passing for 25 touchdowns while getting picked off a career-low 11 times. The big guy – he’s 6′4″, 264 lbs. – can move well, gaining 422 rushing yards and scoring four times on the ground. Culpepper was excellent in 2000 and 2003, but the two years in between were lackluster. He needs to be more consistent from year to year, and the aforementioned career low in picks is a good sign.

4. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
Hasselbeck had a breakout campaign last year, when he racked up 3,841 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns. After serving as Brett Favre’s backup in Green Bay, Hasselbeck came to Seattle with big expectations. He showed signs of breaking out two years ago, posting significant improvement in completion percentage from 2001 to 2002. Last year was his first season starting all 16 games, and he didn’t let anyone down. Expect more of the same.

5. Trent Green, Kansas City
Green flies under the radar a bit, but has had back-to-back superb seasons. In the past two years, he’s averaged 3,865 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and half as many picks. There’s nothing that indicates Green can’t have another season like the previous two.

6. Steve McNair, Tennessee
“Air McNair” joined Manning as co-MVP last season. He posted career bests in passer rating, passing touchdowns, and interceptions thrown. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last season from a statistical standpoint, as it seems to be a trademark career year. Even if he doesn’t and reverts back to previous levels, he’s still good.

7. Marc Bulger, St. Louis
Now that Kurt Warner has joined the Giants, Bulger finally has job security and should become a more relaxed passer in only his second season as the full-time starter. The interceptions (22) are bothersome, but guys who complete 63% of their passes shouldn’t get picked 22 times. Expect the picks to drop and look for him to throw for 25 scores.

8. Brett Favre, Green Bay
Favre was Favre once again last season. He threw for 3,361 yards, 32 touchdowns, and had the best completion percentage of his career at 65.4. He shows no signs of slowing down at 34 and hasn’t missed a game since 1992. It’s a good gamble to expect another 3,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns.

9. Aaron Brooks, New Orleans
Brooks has improved his TD-INT ratio for two straight years, and at 28, seems to be coming into his own. He’s started all 16 games the past three seasons and the risk factor is quite low with this guy.

10. Chad Pennington, New York Jets
Pennington only played in ten games last season due to a major injury. He returned in the second half and had over 2,000 passing yards as well as a 13-12 TD-INT ratio in those ten contests. As long as he stays healthy, 3,000 yards and 25 scores are not out of the question.

11. Michael Vick, Atlanta
12. Tom Brady, New England
13. Jeff Garcia, Cleveland
14. Jake Plummer, Denver
15. Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville
16. Joey Harrington, Detroit
17. Mark Brunell, Washington
18. David Carr, Houston
19. Jake Delhomme, Carolina
20. Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo