Rating the Receivers

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Who are the top 20 wide receivers this season?

While not as important as having an elite running back, fielding a strong WR corps is crucial to a fantasy owner’s success. The best receivers will usually go off the board early in round two, with someone like Randy Moss possibly sliding into the top ten. Below are fantasy writer Ryan Fay’s top 20 receivers for 2004:
 

1. Randy Moss, Minnesota
Marvin Harrison would have been in this spot twelve months ago, but Moss has eclipsed him as the top receiver in fantasy football. Still only 27, Moss had his best season last year, racking up 111 receptions, 1,632 yards and 17 scores. The only thing that can stop Moss is Moss himself, and as he gets older, that ought to become less of an issue. It’s a scary thought, but Moss might just be hitting his prime years now.

2. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis
Harrison still remains one of the surest bets in fantasy football. While his numbers fell off a bit last season, he still managed 94 receptions, 1,272 yards and ten scores. Harrison will be 32 in August, though age shouldn’t be a concern for a few more years. Expect another serving of his 2003 numbers, with the receptions likely reaching 100 again.

3. Torry Holt, St. Louis
Holt had a career season a year ago, piling up 117 receptions, 1,696 yards and 12 scores. Another season remotely like that would be enough to vault the 28-year-old Holt over Marvin Harrison. I wouldn’t expect quite as good a campaign, but 100 receptions, 1,400 yards and ten scores is a fair bet.

4. Terrell Owens, Philadelphia
Had to correct myself here, as I was writing “Terrell Owens, San Francisco.” But despite the team change, don’t expect a major shift in the numbers. Owens has always had a good quarterback to work with. Jeff Garcia was probably a better pure quarterback from a throwing standpoint than McNabb will ever be, but Owens will be good for 90 receptions, 1,100 yards and ten scores. Prepare for him missing a game or two … he’s only started all 16 games once in his career.

5. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh
Ward flies under the radar in some circles, but he’s consistently racked up 90-100 receptions and yardage totals between 1,003 and 1,329 the past three years. It’s hard to top that, and he’s scored 22 times combined the past two seasons. Another year like 2003 is on tap.

6. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati
After storming onto the fantasy scene during the second half of the 2002 season, Johnson parlayed that success into a full campaign in 2003. Johnson picked up 90 receptions, 1,355 yards and ten scores. It remains to be seen how he gels with Carson Palmer, but it shouldn’t be a major hurdle for him to climb.

7. Laveranues Coles, Washington
Coles has settled into a nice groove the past two seasons, finishing each year with receptions in the 80s, yards in the 1200s, and scores in the mid-single digits. At this point, the receptions and yards should stay consistent, but pushing ten touchdowns isn’t out of the question.

8. Joe Horn, New Orleans
It’s tough figuring out what to make of Horn’s 2003 campaign. He failed to accumulate 1,000 yards for the first time since being a full time starter – missing by 27 yards – but he did set a career high with ten touchdowns. If he can put antics aside, Horn likely will get back over 1,000 yards while giving owners 85 catches and 7-10 scores.

9. Steve Smith, Carolina
Smith has gotten better in each of his three seasons in the NFL. The small-statured receiver has blazing speed, his biggest asset. He had 88 receptions to go along with 1,100 yards and seven scores last season. Some might question if he can repeat this performance, but I’m confident he can, if only because nobody will be able to catch him.

10. Derrick Mason, Tennessee
Mason set career highs in receptions (95) and yards (1,303) last year. He still hasn’t been able to crack ten touchdowns in a single season, and it looks unlikely that he ever will. I would expect a mild regression back to his 2002-2003 numbers. An average season based on those numbers is roughly 1,075 yards and seven scores. And that’s not exactly terrible.

11. Darrell Jackson, Seattle
12. Eric Moulds, Buffalo
13. Anquan Boldin, Arizona
14. Santana Moss, New York Jets
15. Jimmy Smith, Jacksonville
16. Andre Johnson, Houston
17. Koren Robinson, Seattle
18. Amani Toomer, New York Giants
19. David Boston, Miami
Update: Boston may miss the season following knee surgery. While he is determined to return to action by November, the odds aren’t in his favor.
20. Charles Rogers, Detroit