Ranking the Runners

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Who are this season’s top running backs?

Finding at least two stud running backs is the key to a successful fantasy football season. That’s easier said than done, however, because the RB landscape often undergoes massive changes every few seasons. Three years ago, Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James were the consensus top two at the position. This season they’re not even in the top five, and only James cracks the top ten. Owners will likely use their first pick on a back. But who is the right tailback to choose this year? Here are Ryan Fay’s top 20 RBs for 2004.
 

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
Priest Holmes was better last season, scoring a record 27 touchdowns. However, if I’m starting a team this summer, Tomlinson is the man. He’s six years younger than Holmes and led all backs with 100 receptions, a mark topped by only three WRs. He also scored 17 times. Expect more of the same from Tomlinson this season, especially with WR David Boston moving on to Miami. Tomlinson’s yards per carry have risen each season, from 3.6 to 4.5 to 5.3.

2. Clinton Portis, Washington
Few players have carried a career 5.5 yards per carry average into their third season, but the 23-year-old Portis will. He won’t catch as many balls as Tomlinson or some other backs, but he was arguably the best rusher in the second half last season. He racked up 909 rushing yards after the halfway mark with a 5.7 YPC and scored ten times.

3. Priest Holmes, Kansas City
Holmes has been nothing short of legendary the past few seasons, but Portis and Tomlinson are at least comparable now and undoubtedly better long-term. Holmes is the oldest player on this list – he turns a relatively ancient 31 this fall – and cooled off as the season progressed last year. He scored “only” 10 of his 27 touchdowns after week eight, and his yards per carry dipped below four. He’s still going to be an explosive fantasy threat, but don’t expect 20+ touchdowns.

4. Ahman Green, Green Bay
Green had a career year in 2003, scoring seven more times than ever before while rushing for 500 more yards than any previous total. He’s only missed two games the past two seasons – both in 2002 – and has proven to be durable. He probably won’t match last year’s lofty totals, as it was likely a career season, but he should come close.

5. Shaun Alexander, Seattle
Consistency is a major plus, and Alexander is as consistent as they come. In the past three seasons, he has scored either 14 or 16 times while piling up between 1175 and 1435 yards. Alexander is probably the safest back out there.

6. Deuce McAllister, New Orleans
McAllister only scored eight times last season after 16 TDs in 2002, but he became a more complete player. He increased his reception total by 22 and should see his touchdown total get back into double digits this season.

7. Ricky Williams, Miami
Williams was a bust of sorts a year ago, but that was mostly due to a horrendous offensive line. The Fish improved their line in the offseason and added WR David Boston from San Diego, so Williams shouldn’t see eight men stacking the box against him every time. I’d expect 2002 yardage totals – 1245 or so – but with double-digit scores. Miami’s improved offense won’t need to give Williams another 380 carries, which should result in a fresher Ricky down the stretch.

Update: Williams has unexpectedly decided to retire from football; scratch him off your draft lists.

8. Jamal Lewis, Baltimore
Lewis would be a lot higher if not for drug charges hanging over his head. The trial for that offense is scheduled for August, further complicating matters for fantasy owners. If things look rosy for Lewis as the summer progresses, he belong right behind Priest Holmes in this ranking.

9. Edgerrin James, Indianapolis
After being rushed back from knee surgery a couple years ago, James may finally be back. After a lackluster first half last year, James showed renewed burst after week eight, scoring ten times and gaining over 1,000 total yards.

10. Corey Dillon, New England
Dillon will slip based on weak stats from a year ago, but he’s moved on to to New England, where he’ll be the main option in the running attack. There’s no reason why he can’t get back to his pre-2003 levels: 1300 yards and double-digit scores, give or take a few.

11. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville
12. Kevan Barlow, San Francisco
13. Marshall Faulk, St. Louis
14. Domanick Davis, Houston
15. Tiki Barber, New York Giants
16. Travis Henry, Buffalo
17. Michael Bennett, Minnesota
18. Stephen Davis, Carolina
19. Curtis Martin, New York Jets
20. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia