Sleeper Watch

Heading into last season, nobody was mistaking Antowain Smith for Priest Holmes, but Smith’s 2003 numbers fell below even the most modest of expectations. 642 yards on 182 carries, a mere 92 receiving yards, and a career-low three touchdowns … while Smith may have reached his goal of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for a second time, fantasy owners counting on his production were left out in the cold.

And now, barely a week after rushing for a game-high 83 yards and a score in the title game, Smith finds himself out in the cold as well. The Patriots, ever conscious of the salary cap, chose not to exercise their option on Smith, meaning that New England’s leading rusher will have to find a new home this off-season.

With his destination in doubt, Smith’s fantasy value now enters a state of limbo as well. At the moment, just about anything is possible; the seven-year veteran might never be a fantasy factor again, but he could also take a page from Stephen Davis’ playbook and return to the 1000-yard rushing plateau. Escaping from New England’s spread-the-ball-around offense can only help his numbers – if he succeeds in landing a job as another team’s feature back.

Considering both this potential and his current low value, Smith makes for an intriguing trade target in dynasty and keeper leagues. Clearly, you shouldn’t overpay for his services, but if you can pick him up for spare parts from a frustrated owner, acquiring Smith at this point could be a risk worth taking.