Week 1
Games through Sept. 13

• Tweet

• Tweet

The first week in a new NFL season is often the toughest in which to predict fantasy standouts and busts. For months, every minor detail has been analysed in order to predict depth charts, playing time and the fantasy impact of each and every player, and all that information has been distilled into cheat sheets for the draft. But now, with the drafts behind us, it’s time to focus not on the big picture, but only on the week ahead, taking into account matchups, injuries, weather and more.

Last year’s first games produced surprises such as Anquan Boldin, and everyone is eagerly searching for this year’s opening week breakouts while dodging the busts. Here is an overview of our suggestions for this week:

START

QB:

Peyton Manning, Ind: Starting Manning is usually a no-brainer, even when he faces a tough opponent. Yes, he was intercepted four times in last year’s AFC Conference Final, but Manning is just too good to bench and has shown himself capable of handling the Patriots’ defense in the past, as evidenced by his 18-14 career TD-INT ratio against New England. The Colts should come out firing on offense, so be sure not to miss this one.

Jake Delhomme, Car: Delhomme is one of the most underrated fantasy QBs and can provide a welcome boost if the matchup is right. Green Bay had troubles stopping the pass at times in 2003, and the Packers may suffer from the same weakness this year. Unless you’re fortunate enough to own one of the top five QBs, Delhomme is worth considering this week.

Drew Bledsoe, Buf: Veteran fantasy players know Bledsoe as a solid QB whose inconsistency can be frustrating at times. Howevery, with a healthy running game and improved receivers, Bledsoe still has lots of good games left in his tank. This week might be one of the times Bledsoe is well worth having in your lineup, as Jacksonville’s secondary might find itself outmatched.

Others to start:
Chad Pennington, NYJ
Brett Favre, GB
Trent Green, KC
Jake Plummer, Den

No-brainers:
Marc Bulger, StL
Michael Vick, Atl
Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
Donovan McNabb, Phi
Daunte Culpepper, Min
Aaron Brooks, NO

RB:

Corey Dillon, NE: The Patriots’ game plan will rely heavily on the run, and they will give Dillon every opportunity to shine for his new team. The Colts had problems stopping the run last year, and this season may be no different.

Quentin Griffin, Den: Denver, as most fantasy owners know, has a great history of turning anyone capable of putting on pads into an impact fantasy running back, and for now Griffin has the job. Games versus the Chiefs always have the potential to turn into a shootout, so starting Griffin this week seems like a wise move.

Duce Staley, Pit: Staley has found a new home in Pittsburgh, and there is no reason why he should not be a useful #2 RB there. As a starter in Philadelphia, it sometimes seemed as if he was the team’s second ball-carrying option behind Donovan McNabb, but that won’t be the case in Steel Town.

Others to start:
Edgerrin James, Ind
Fred Taylor, Jax
Clinton Portis, Was
Thomas Jones, Chi
Curtis Martin, NYJ
Kevan Barlow, SF
Stephen Davis, Car
Domanick Davis, Hou
Travis Henry, Buf

No-brainers:
LaDainan Tomlinson, SD
Priest Holmes, KC
Jamal Lewis, Bal
Marshall Faulk, StL
Shaun Alexander, Sea
Rudi Johnson, Cin
Deuce McAllister, NO
Ahman Green, GB

WR:

Reggie Wayne, Ind: Wayne had a solid campaign in 2003, but annoyed fantasy owners with his inconsistency. While he presumably will still have his ups and downs this year, he could be a good start this week. The Patriots will try to shut down Marvin Harisson, which should open up a lot of opportunities for Wayne to make his presence felt.

Deion Branch, NE: The Patriots’ WRs were very unpredictable last year; it seemed as if each game, it was someone different who caught the majority of the balls. Will anyone step up and turn into a true #1 receiver this season? It’s too early to tell, but Branch certainly has the potential.

Jimmy Smith, Jax: Besides Fred Taylor (when healthy), Smith might be the only Jaguar worth consideration on an every-week basis. In spite of his age, Smith is still the go-to guy through the air and should post respectable numbers. The Bills may dominate the Jaguars from the beginning, forcing Jacksonville to pass often while playing from behind. If this is how the game develops, expect Smith to be the target of many of those tosses.

Bryant Johnson, Ari: It is not the best sign for a team when a player who missed most of the preseason with an injury may be both the best and the healthiest option on offense. But due to injuries to Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald (who will play) and Marcel Shipp, the Arizona offense needs Johnson to be productive. The Cardinals might not be able to stop the Rams on Sunday, and therefore be forced to pass quite often; expect Johnson to see lots of balls thrown his way.

Others to start:
Marvin Harrison, Ind
Eric Moulds, Buf
Isaac Bruce, StL
Koren Robinson, Sea
Darrell Jackson, Sea
Derrick Mason, Ten
Peerless Price, Atl
Andre Johnson, Hou
Javon Walker, GB

No-brainers:
Torry Holt, StL
Santana Moss, NYJ
Steve Smith, Car
Terrell Owens, Phi
Randy Moss, Min
Joe Horn, NO
Hines Ward, Pit
Chad Johnson, Cin

TE/K/D:

Antonio Gates, TE, SD: Gates is one of the most promising sleeper TEs this year, as he seems to be one of the more reliable targets in an otherwise suspect Chargers offense. Gates should be used a lot against a tough Texans defense as San Diego’s WRs will have problems getting open.

Matt Stover, K, Bal: Baltimore dominated Cleveland twice last year, and has the lineup to do so again. Stover should have plenty of chances to score, and provide you with a good amount of fantasy points.

St. Louis Defense: The Arizona offense has almost more question marks than players on the field, as their WRs are banged up and their starting running back is aging veteran Emmitt Smith. The Rams defense should have few problems stopping the Cardinals and are therefore worth starting in all formats.
 

BENCH

QB:

Tom Brady, NE: While he is a great team leader and solid quarterback for the Patriots, Brady is not the prototypical fantasy star. With Dillon likely to carry the rock often, this could be a quiet game for Brady; if you have other options, leaving him on the bench until the matchup looks more promising is worth considering.

Mark Brunell,Was: Everyone familiar with Joe Gibbs knows that he likes to run the ball. Furthermore, Brunell hasn’t been among the game’s top passers in recent years. He probably will not throw the ball too often against a tough Tampa Bay defense; the safe call is to park him on the bench this week and follow the developements in Wahington closely.

Jay Fiedler, Mia: Fiedler came out of the preseason still the #1 QB for the Dolphins, but as we know, he has never been a great fantasy option. With the weather possibly turning into a factor this week in Miami, and a tough Titans defense coming to town, you probably have better options.

RB:

Any Cleveland RB: With Lee Suggs probably unable to start on Sunday, William Green may get the nod. However, this should not send you rushing to include him in your starting lineup this week, as neither Green nor is worth starting against a Baltimore defense that is among the most daunting in this league.

Travis Minor, Mia: It does not bode well for the Dolphins when their starting QB and their starting RB are on the sit list. However, the Dolphins are busy trying to improve, acquiring Lamar Gordon from St. Louis to upgrade their running game. Minor will start this week, but could struggle against a tough Titans defense that only allowed 80.9 yards per game on the ground last year, tops in the league.

WR:

Troy Brown, NE: The veteran receiver simply is not a good enough player any more to be a starter on your fantasy team. He may show flashes on occasion, but his best days are behind him and predicting when those flashes will be is close to impossible. With no teams on a bye this week, you should have better options.

Jerry Rice, Oak: Rice still has plenty left and can be a welcome addition to your fantasy team – just not this week, when Oakland visits Pittsburgh. There will be better matchups ahead in which to start the future Hall-of-Famer.

Eddie Kennison, KC: Kennison still sits atop the Chiefs’ depth chart, but considering Kansas City’s other options, he basically holds this status by default. Kennison still tends to disappear for long stretches and should be avoided when the matchup is bad. That is the case this week when the Chiefs face a solid Broncos unit, which will make anyone not named Priest Holmes a risky start.

TE/K/D:

Erron Kinney, TE, Ten: Following the departure of Frank Wycheck, Kinney is now the #1 TE for the Titans. However that does not mean he is worth starting. Kinney is better at blocking than he is at catching balls, and with rookie Ben Troupe also in the mix, Kinney may not see many balls thrown his way, especially against a Miami team that still fields a quality defensive unit.

Olindo Mare, Mia/Craig Hentrich,Ten; K: With the game already moved to Saturday because of weather concerns, this does not look good for both offenses. The kickers, of course, will be particularly susceptible to strong winds, and therefore can’t be codered safe starts. (Note that punter Craig Hentrich is slated to handle kicking duties in this game while the Titans search for a more permanent replacement for injured Joe Nedney.)

New York Giants Defense: The G-men have a respectable defense, but there may be better matchups this week than counting on New York to stop the Eagles. Philadelphia has reloaded on offense and desperately wants to go to the Super Bowl. With the addition of Terell Owens, a healthy Donovan McNabb is a bigger threat than ever.
 

Fantasy Football Cafe’s Start & Sit lists are suggestions intended to give fantasy football players an edge in their weekly matchups. Savvy owners will see these lists not as an absolute ranking, but as an indication of possible outcomes of a given week, and use them together with their own opinions and hunches to field the lineup that will give their team the greatest odds of winning. The Start & Sit lists are compiled by Dan Spazierer (not Madame Zelda). For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section.