Week 16
Games through Dec. 27

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Week 16 is here. In most fantasy leagues, it’s the biggest week of the year, the battle for the fantasy championship! If you made it this far, you probably had quite a few studs on your team, and probably also got some production out of recent breakout players like Drew Bennett, Billy Volek or maybe even Lee Evans. These guys all have nice streaks going, and we see no reason why they should not continue to produce. For other players, there might be reason to be a bit worried. For example, with Terrell Owens out, Donovan McNabb’s value drops, too. McNabb is also hurt by the fact that the Eagles have clinched home-field advantage throughout the season.

This week, there are again several key games in the NFL that will get most attention from fantasy owners. First, there is the Kansas City – Oakland game, which has all the makings of a potential shoot-out. And there is the game which may decide a lot of fantasy leagues by itself, the duel between Indianapolis and San Diego. This game features a number of fantasy stars, but it is difficult to predict whether this one will turn into the offensive fireworks display many owners are hoping for. Of course, there are many other extremely interesting games and players to watch, and in our weekly column, we take a look at which players you should trust this week, and which might cost you the fantasy trophy.

START

QB:

Kerry Collins, Oak: All those who trusted Collins last week were rewarded with a huge performance and a big step toward the next round of the fantasy playoffs. But the fun might not be overr for Collins owners. He plays against the worst passing defense of the league this week, the Kansas City Chiefs, and therefore is a must-start, perhaps even over guys like Donovan McNabb.

Michael Vick, Atl: Vick has fallen quite rapidly from the ranks of the top fantasy quarterbacks this year, but this week he still is worth a look against a weak New Orleans defense. While he may not throw for as many touch as that Peyton Manning fellow, he has a chance to do a lot of damage on the ground and should therefore strongly be considered.

Others to start:
Tom Brady, NE
Donovan McNabb, Phi
Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
Jake Plummer, Den

No-brainers:
Daunte Culpepper, Min
Peyton Manning, Ind
Trent Green, KC
Brett Favre, GB
Drew Brees, SD
Byron Leftwich, Jax
Billy Volek, Ten

RB:

Tiki Barber, NYG: Barber spent the last two weeks on the Sit list, and he indeed produced sub-par numbers compared to what he did earlier this year. However, Eli Manning is starting to look a bit more comfortable at quarterback, and his upswing should continue against the soft Bengals defense. This in turn will give Barber a lot more room to work with, and he will quickly respond with better numbers than in his last outings.

Nick Goings, Car: After four 100+ yard games in a row, Goings failed to reach the century mark last week against the Falcons. Still, he should be expected to rebound quickly, as he plays against a mediocre Tampa Bay run defense on Sunday. Goings had 106 yards against the Buccaneers earlier this season, and he should be able to match this number again.

Others to start:
Michael Pittman, TB
Fred Taylor, Jax
Deuce McAllister, NO
Jamal Lewis, Bal
Ahman Green, GB
Warrick Dunn, Atl
Corey Dillon, NE

No-brainers:
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Shaun Alexander, Sea
Edgerrin James, Ind
Clinton Portis, Was
Curtis Martin, NYJ
Domanick Davis, Hou
Brian Westbrook, Phi
Larry Johnson, KC
Kevin Jones, Det
Rudi Johnson, Cin

WR:

TJ Houshmandzadeh, Cin: Cincinnati’s date with the Giants has the potential to be an entertaining, high-scoring game, and Houshmandzadeh could join the fun with a trip to the end zone against a team that allows almost two passing TDs per game. He and fellow wideout Chad Johnson should find plenty of room, and both look like very solid fantasy starts.

Donald Driver, GB: Driver had some disappointing games in the first half of the season, but his production has since stabilized a bit. Against the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers should be able to lean heavily on their excellent passing game, Driver will look to take full advantage of any holes he finds in the secondary. This is the match-up you have to like, so be sure to have him in your lineup on Christmas Eve.

Others to start:
Lee Evans, Buf
Chad Johnson, Cin
Isaac Bruce, StL
Michael Clayton, TB
Hines Ward, Pit
Jimmy Smith, Jax
Darrell Jackson, Sea
Rod Smith, Den
Brandon Stokley, Ind

No-brainers:
Drew Bennett, Ten
Torry Holt, StL
Joe Horn, NO
Randy Moss, Min
Muhsin Muhammad, Car
Marvin Harrison, Ind
Reggie Wayne, Ind
Javon Walker, GB
Andre Johnson, Hou
Eddie Kennison, KC
Jerry Porter, Oak

TE/K/D:

Bubba Franks, TE, GB: Franks has been sub-par all season long, and has lost his status as a top ten fantasy tight end, perhaps permanently. Still, this week you might want to take a chance on him, as his match-up against the Vikings looks good (see Donald Driver). The Packers should throw the ball a lot, and Franks could be a frequent target, especially in the red zone.

Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oak: With the Raiders’ passing offense clicking, Janikowski can be viewed as a very solid start this week. The Raiders should move into scoring position a lot against the weak Chiefs, so expect Janikowski to receive quite a few opportunities this week.

Miami Defense: The Dolphins’ defense has been overlooked a bit this year, as the team’s inability to move the ball on offense also lowered the value of their defense. This week, Miami looks like a fine start, lining up against the hapless Browns, who have turned the ball over 11 times during the last three games.

 
BENCH

QB:

Jake Delhomme, Car: Delhomme and the Panthers are on a nice run right now, even though they lost against the Falcons in OT last week. But despite his team’s loss, Delhomme still managed to give you some nice stats for your fantasy team. However, it will not be as easy for him this time, as he faces the league’s best passing defense on Sunday. Look for other options.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pit: Ben’s winning streak is still alive, but even in a high-scoring win against the Giants last week, Roethlisberger did not produce enough to help your fantasy team much. And last week’s numbers may be all you can expect this week against the Ravens, who held Peyton Manning to just one score last week.

RB:

Julius Jones, Dal: Jones faces his first really tough defense this week, going against a Redskins unit that allows only 83 yards per game on the ground. It will be very interesting to see how Jones responds to such a test, but for you fantasy team, it may be wise to avoid the risk. The Redskins can focus on stopping Jones, as the Cowboys passing game is no real threat to them, making Jones far less of a sure thing than his owners have become used to.

Antowain Smith, Ten: Smith will start for the Titans, as Chris Brown is out for the season, but he will not have much fantasy value this week. Smith failed to make a significant impact in the last two weeks, and that was against weaker defenses than he has to face on Saturday. The Broncos are still in the top 10 against the rush, despite allowing 151 yards to Larry Johnson of the Chiefs. Smith is not Larry Johnson, and therefore should be avoided this week

WR:

Antwaan Randle El, Pit: Randle El had a huge game last week, winning it for the Steelers not only by catching the ball frequently, but also by throwing a TD pass himself. Still, it might be wise to temper expectations, since the Steelers remain a run-first team, and Randle El is not even the first option when Pittsburgh throws the ball. Additionally, the Ravens are a very tough team on the defensive end, so Randle El’s numbers might come crashing back down to earth.

Clarence Moore, Bal: Moore was picked up by many owners after his two-TD performance against the Giants two weeks ago, but reality caught up with him quickly, and he made only one catch against the Colts. The Ravens are simply not a reliable passing team, and the only player you can trust each week remains Todd Heap.

TE/K/D:

Randy McMichael, Mia: McMichael has been one of the top passing targets for Miami all season, but he faces a tough challenge this week against the Browns. Cleveland has shut down opposing TEs in the past weeks, and even Antonio Gates had just one catch last weekend, although it was a huge one – plus, Gates had lined up as FB on this play. So take away Gates’ 72-yard fullback TD catch, and the Browns have allowed opposing TEs a total of only two catches for 29 yards in the past two weeks, not exactly the match up you like your guy to have.

Adam Vinatieri, K, NE: Vinatieri has been huge in a lot of games this year, but might not be able to do a lot for your fantasy team in this crucial week. The Jets have allowed only eight points by kickers in the last three weeks, so as good as Vinatiri is, at least consider other choices.

San Diego Defense: The Chargers shut out Cleveland last week, and are one of the better defenses in the league. However, they may not score a lot of points for you this week, as the play against Peyton Manning and the Colts. Indianapolis does not turn over the ball very often, and also protects Manning quite nicely (only three sacks in the last three games). Furthermore, Manning and his offense should still be able to produce more than 300 total yards, so better go with another defense this week.

 
Fantasy Football Cafe’s Start & Sit lists are suggestions intended to give fantasy football players an edge in their weekly matchups. Savvy owners will see these lists not as an absolute ranking, but as an indication of possible outcomes of a given week, and use them together with their own opinions and hunches to field the lineup that will give their team the greatest odds of winning. The Start & Sit lists are compiled by Dan Spazierer (not Madame Zelda). For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section.