Ben Kearon’s January NFL Mock Draft

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I’ve been getting myself worked up into a frenzy for the NFL Draft for about the last month and a half. Now that the underclassman declaration date has finally passed, I am in position to put out my first extensive mock draft of the year. This draft will probably change right up until draft day, but I intend to put one out every month for your reading pleasure. Here’s my early take on how the NFL Draft will unfold.

1. San Francisco 49ers: Aaron Rodgers (QB, California) – The 49ers had a horrible season in which they were only able to win two games, and they only beat one team, the Arizona Cardinals, all year. There is one benefit to having such a bad campaign however, and that is the privilege of having the #1 draft pick. There are too many holes to count on the 49ers team, but the most notable is at the most important position, QB. Rodgers is unquestionably the best QB in this draft in my opinion since Matt Leinart foolishly decided to return to school. He has the potential to be a franchise QB possessing great arm strength and accuracy, good mobility and a solid head on his shoulders. The only real weakness he has is that he is not prototypical QB size at 6′1″. The 49ers have numerous other needs though, so there is a very good chance they will trade this pick in order to build depth.

2. Miami Dolphins: Cedric Benson (RB, Texas) – This is Nick Saban’s team now, and it will be up to him to make all the important personnel decisions this offseason. He has already acknowledged that there is a hole at RB by saying that he would like to acquire Travis Henry from the Bills. If the Dolphins have not acquired a RB by the time the draft rolls around, I fully expect them to draft Benson. Benson is one of the most prolific backs in NCAA history, having rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his four seasons as a Longhorn. He is big, strong, and fast for his size. He also has great vision and is a very powerful runner, willing to bowl over any defensive player. The only real problem he has is that he is not an exceptional receiver out of the backfield. The Dolphins also have needs at QB and along the offensive line, so neither Alex Smith or Alex Barron are out of the question here.

3. Cleveland Browns: Alex Smith (QB, Utah) – Smith has been flying up draft boards lately after a great season and more notably a great game in the nationally televised Fiesta Bowl. He entered the draft after leading Utah to an undefeated season because coach Urban Meyer left Utah to coach at Florida. I doubt Jeff Garcia will be back in Cleveland next year, and while the offensive line is a problem, Smith is a great fit for the Browns here. He has perfect size for the QB position, possesses a great arm, and is very mobile. Alex Barron would also be a smart pick at this spot, but a player of Smith’s caliber is impossible to pass up at this position. Smith and Kellen Winslow II could be a very prolific duo for the coming years, and that bodes well for Browns fans.

4. Chicago Bears: Mike Williams (WR, USC) – Williams attempted to take advantage of the Maurice Clarett ruling last year which enabled sophomores to enter the draft. The rule was then reversed and both Williams and Clarett were ineligible to return to school because they had hired agents. Luckily for Williams, his stock has probably risen in the past year, as this is a much weaker draft. The Bears need playmakers on offence, especially at the WR position, which makes Williams a perfect fit. Williams is massive and very strong; he also has very good hands and is a great leaper. The only real weakness he has is his lack of blazing speed, and scouts also might be scared off by the fact that he has not played competitive football in a year. The Bears could also use help at OT, which would make Alex Barron a good selection, but Williams is really too good to pass up at this point.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronnie Brown (RB, Auburn) – Although he is often overshadowed by his Auburn teammate, Ronnie Brown is for real. He formed one half of one of the best running back by committee backfields I have ever seen. He has great size (6′1″, 220 lbs.) and blazing speed (4.4 40 yard dash). Not only that, but he has good vision and is a fantastic receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs would probably like to select Mike Williams at this point as they were supposedly enamored with him last year, but Brown is a more than adequate consolation prize. Charlie Garner and Mike Pittman are both getting old and bringing in a young stud like Brown would be a very good decision by the Tampa Bay. I think Brown has the most potential out of any back in this draft, and he should have a great NFL career.

6. Tennessee Titans: Alex Barron (OT, Florida State) – Barron could be long gone at this point but the Titans should snap him up if he isn’t. Both Fred Miller and Brad Hopkins are getting up there in years, and one or both of them will most likely be cut this year. Barron is an improvement on either one of them and has franchise left tackle written all over him. He is very big, has quick feet, and is very athletic. The Titans would also like to replace Jevon Kearse, so a stud pass-rusher like Erasmus James is a solid pick at this point should Barron be gone.

7. Oakland Raiders: Cadillac Williams (RB, Auburn) – Norv Turner loves to run the football and an exceptionally talented back like Cadillac would be very productive behind an offensive line as talented as the Raiders’. Cadillac is not overly big or fast, but he has fantastic vision and is a threat to take the ball to the house on any given play. He is a strong back that is willing to run over or around any defender that gets in his way. The Raiders also have holes all over their defence and a linebacker like Derrick Johnson could be the selection here if they fill the hole at RB prior to the draft. Also, Charles Woodson may not be back in Oakland and selecting an elite corner like Antrel Rolle would also be a smart pick.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Derrick Johnson (LB, Texas) – The Cardinals have holes at almost every position on their team so they can’t really go wrong with this pick. RB is a definite area of need, but they can address that in the second round as there is a big dropoff after the top three backs. In my opinion, Derrick Johnson is the best player in this draft and would help any team in the NFL. He was easily the best defensive player in the NCAA and won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker. He is the definition of a playmaker and has exceptional speed. He is a great run-stopper and is very good in coverage. It is very difficult to find a weakness with DJ, but if there is one, it’s that he could stand to put on some weight and muscle. If somehow one of the top QBs slipped to this spot, I’m sure the Cardinals would snap him up, but this pick would help the Cardinals on the defensive side of the ball immensely.

9. Washington Redskins: Erasmus James (DE, Wisconsin) – After sitting out his junior season with an injury, James was the top pass rusher in the country this year and had a great senior season. He is unbelievably athletic and has phenomenal speed. He has boatloads of potential and could be one of the top pass rushing DEs in the NFL. The only real concern is his durability, but if he is healthy he will be dominant. The Redskins boasted one of the best defences in the NFL this year, and the only real hole on their team was at DE. Their offence could use work, but that mostly depends on Patrick Ramsey and how well he plays this year. Also, Fred Smoot might not be back next year, and if they lose him, Antrel Rolle would probably be the pick here.

10. Detroit Lions: Thomas Davis (S, Georgia) – The Lions secondary could use some work and Davis would go a long way to help improve it. As a rookie, he would be an improvement over both Bracy Walker and Brock Marion. Nicknamed the “Hitman,” Davis is a seriously gifted athlete. He is very big and quick and is one of the top run-stopping safeties I have ever seen. He could use a little work on the coverage aspect of his game, but he is such a big hitter that many WRs will not want to come near his coverage area. The Lions could also use some work at LB and DE, so if Derrick Johnson or Erasmus James were on the board here, they would have to give them some consideration.

11. Dallas Cowboys: Antrel Rolle (CB, Miami) – The Cowboys took a big step backwards this year and the play of their secondary was a big reason for that. Terence Newman regressed, and both Peter Hunter and Lance Frazier were unimpressive. The addition of Rolle would give the Cowboys the best young corner tandem in the league. Rolle is a big, athletic, and physical corner. To me, he looks like he could be a shutdown corner at the next level. The Cowboys could also use a DE or a WR, but I expect them to address those needs later in the draft.

12. San Diego Chargers (from New York Giants): Braylon Edwards (WR, Michigan) – This looks like it would be a match made in heaven. Edwards is the perfect fit for the Chargers and fills their biggest need on offence. Braylon was easily the best WR in college football this year, winning the Biletnekoff Award, which is given to the nation’s top receiver. Many people have him rated on par with Mike Williams so it is obvious that he provides very good value at this point in the draft. He is big, strong, and very fast for his size. If anyone saw him playing at Michigan this year (most notably in the Rose Bowl) they realize that he has the ability to dominate any game. The only real problem he has is the tendency to drop some easy balls, but for every easy ball he drops he makes a spectacular catch. The Chargers also could use some help along the offensive line, so if Edwards is gone, Jamaal Brown would be a definite possibility at this point.

13. Houston Texans: Shawne Merriman (OLB/DE, Maryland) – I was not expecting Merriman to enter this draft at all, but now that he has it looks like he made the right decision. His stock is very high as teams are interested in his ability to play both OLB and DE. He is the perfect fit for the Texans’ 3-4 scheme, as he would be a great pass rusher playing either as a down lineman or a stand up LB ࠬa Terrell Suggs. Merriman has the most potential of any player in this draft, as he is supremely athletic, very fast, and very strong. There isn’t much more you could look for and the only player I think the Texans could logically consider instead of Merriman is Thomas Davis (if he falls this far).

14. Carolina Panthers: Jammal Brown (OT, Oklahoma) – In 2003 the Panthers offensive line rejuvenated Stephen Davis’ career and led them to the Super Bowl. Fast forward one year into the future, and three fifths of that line were no longer with Carolina. Jordan Gross is a great talent along the line, but apart from him the Panthers have little else. Brown is very good and was the winner of the Outland Trophy, given to the top interior lineman in the NCAA. He helped to pave roads for Adrian Peterson’s Heisman-worthy season and keep Jason White in position to make plays all year long. If the Panthers were to draft Brown they would be set for years with a pair of bookend tackles. The Panthers also need help at safety, but Thomas Davis will not be around at this pick and there is no other safety that provides value here.

15. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Miller (CB, Clemson) – If you look at any position on the Chiefs defence you are likely to find a position that should be filled with a first-round draft pick. However, with only one first-rounder, it is important that the Chiefs address their most pressing need. They have a crater-sized hole at the CB position. In this day and age, with the NFL predicated more and more on the pass, your team is just not going to stop anyone by starting William Bartee and Eric Warfield. Insert Justin Miller. He is a great CB who I think will make a major impact at the next level. Not only is he fast and a great cover corner, he is a ballhawk and is one of the most dangerous players in college football with a ball in his hands. He may not be ranked as the second-best corner in a lot of different places, but by the time the combine is over, I think that many teams will covet him. The Chiefs could also use a DT, but after the horrendous picks of Ryan Sims and John Browning, I can’t see them investing another high pick in that position.

16. New Orleans Saints: Pac-Mac Jones (CB, West Virginia) – Year after year the Saints are in need of a corner, and year after year they pass on one. Hopefully the Saints will wise up this time and take the CB they so sorely need. Mike McKenzie is a solid corner on one side of the field, but Fred Thomas just does not do it for me. Pac-Man would be a good fit for the Saints: he is supremely fast, a good cover corner, and plays well in run support. The Saints also need an outside linebacker and a defensive tackle, but I think Pac-Man provides better value than either Kevin Burnett or Anttaj Hawthorne.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Travis Johnson (DT, Florida State) – Johnson has really shot up the boards, especially after the surprising decision by Rodrique Wright to return for his senior year, which left Johnson as the top DT available. The Bengals are absolutely horrible stopping the run and a good DT is just what the doctor ordered for that problem. Johnson is big and has good speed; he is the type of tackle who makes a lot of plays in the backfield. The Bengals could also use some help at CB, but DT is a more pressing need and this draft is deep with CBs, so they can address that position with their next pick.

18. Minnesota Vikings*: Kevin Burnett (OLB, Tennessee) – Despite investing countless draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings’ defence is still something that has been holding their team back. They are poor against the run, and their pass defence is mediocre. They do have some nice young players along the line (Kevin Williams, Kenechi Udeze), but their linebackers and safeties are absolutely atrocious. EJ Henderson has been a colossal bust as he is possibly the worst cover linebacker I have seen in the league, and Brian Russell is a season removed from his ten-interception year and is also a liability. Burnett is the perfect fit for the Vikings as he is a great cover linebacker. He is also pretty big and very fast. I actually think that Burnett is going too low here, but most other mock drafts will tell you otherwise. If the Vikings pass on Burnett for some reason, they may draft Earnest Shazor to replace Brian Williams, or possibly a DT like Anttaj Hawthorne to play nose tackle in the 3-4 defence they are said to be switching to next year.

19. St. Louis Rams*: Carlos Rogers (CB, Auburn) – The Rams, much like the Saints, have many needs on the defensive side of the ball. They only have two real playmakers on defence in Adam Archuleta and Leonard Little. Jaremtrius Butler is a liability at corner as he tries to make too many big plays and often gets burned, and Travis Fisher is unspectacular. Rogers had a great senior season, winning the Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back over many other qualified players including Antrel Rolle. He is very fast and has great size for a corner. He was rarely beat this year and was a big reason why Auburn’s defence was so good. The Rams could also use this pick to address their need along the offensive line as it looks like Kyle Turley will not be back next year. However, there are no OTs worthy of this pick as Jamaal Brown will probably be gone and Adam Terry is a late first-round pick.

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Buffalo Bills): Dan Cody (DE, Oklahoma) – Having addressed their need at corner with their earlier pick the Cowboys might look to fix the other aspect of their pass defence with this one. I am not nearly as high on Cody as most, but he still provides a solid value at this point of round one and would be a good addition for Dallas. Cody is a lunchpail kind of guy who has a motor that never quits. He was very good as a member of a couple of very strong Oklahoma teams. Not only is he a solid threat against the pass, but he is good against the run as well. He could stand to put on some weight, but on the whole is a very solid player. Should the Cowboys address a different position with their first pick I would expect them to take a corner like Marlin Jackson or Carlos Rogers here, and it is also possible that they might nab a WR like Roddy White or Troy Williamson. Keep in mind that with two first-round picks, there is always a possibility that Dallas will trade up in round one.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: David Pollack (DE, Georgia) – The Jaguars have what is most likely the worst set of defensive ends in the NFL after cutting both Hugh Douglas and Tony Brackens. This is easily their most pressing need. Pollack is one of the most heralded players in NCAA history and was a three-time All-American selection. He has great intensity and is a real blue-collar type of guy, who makes up for this lack of great size and speed with his hard-working demeanor. DE is really the only choice for the Jaguars here, but were they to address another position, they would most likely take Marlin Jackson or Corey Webster to pair with Rashean Mathis at corner.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Mark Clayton (WR, Oklahoma) – Anyone who watches even a small amount of football can tell you that the Baltimore Ravens are in desperate need of a WR. They pursued Terrell Owens last year, and have been mentioned in rumored trade talks for Randy Moss. Mark Clayton has just about everything you look for in a WR: great speed, good hands, great route-running skills, and he is a terror after he catches the ball. However he lacks one thing that every scout is looking for in a WR, size. If Clayton were three inches and 25 pounds heavier, I think he would be a lock for the top ten. Regardless, Clayton is still a very good WR and would be a nice fit in Baltimore for the future. I am not even going to address other needs, as the Ravens have to take a WR here if they hope for their offence to improve.

23. Seattle Seahawks*: Channing Crowder (ILB, Florida) – Crowder is only a sophomore, but is eligible for the draft because it has been three years since his high school class graduated. The Seahawks have a pressing need at ILB and Crowder is the best ILB in this entire draft. Crowder has been one of the best players at Florida every since he was a freshman and has great physical assets. He is very fast, athletic, and has good size. He is also a playmaker and is very aggressive in going after the ball. The trouble with Crowder is his off the field behavior, as he has had a couple of issues during his time at Florida. RB Ciatrick Fason is also a distince possibility here because there is a decent chance that Shaun Alexander will not be back in Seattle next year.

24. Green Bay Packers*: Marcus Spears (DE, LSU) – As a fan of the Packers, I found it very difficult to watch their defence play this year. The corners are mediocre, the linebackers unspectacular, and their defensive line could use some improvement. Their biggest need in my opinion is at DE, where Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is solid but is weak versus the run, and Aaron Kampman is just poor all-around. Bringing in a lineman like Spears who is very versatile and strong against the run would be a nice selection because he is the perfect complement to KGB. They could also use help at outside linebacker, where all the top prospects will be gone at this point, and at corner, where there is so much depth they can probably address that need with a second-round pick. Many people would suggest that the Packers look at an heir apparent to Brett Favre, but I think that he will play for at least one more season and more likely two. If they are nervous about Favre’s retirement, then Charlie Frye from Akron would probably be the selection here. However, next year will be a pretty deep QB draft, and I would also not mind if the Packers nabbed Jason Campbell or Adrian McPherson in the later rounds.

25. Denver Broncos*: Heath Miller (TE, Virginia) – Ever since Shannon Sharpe retired to work for CBS, the Denver offence just hasn’t been the same. The lack of a consistent threat at the TE position has really hurt the Broncos, and I am sure they would be very pleased if they were afforded the chance to bring in a top pass-catcher like Heath Miller. He is pretty athletic and is a great threat in the passing game. He could use a little work as a blocker, though, and while he is very talented, he is never going to be a Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates. The Broncos also have a lot of needs along the defensive line, most notably their hole at DT, but as I have said before, this is a poor DT draft and there is no one that will be available at this point that is worth this pick.

26. New York Jets*: Marlin Jackson (CB, Michigan) – The Jets exceeded the expectations of most people this year and put together a very solid season. A big part of their success was the play of their defence, and more notably, the improved play of their corners. Although they have some solid players at CB, they lack a true difference-maker, and I feel that Marlin Jackson could be that difference-maker. David Barrett is solid but unspectacular, and Donnie Abraham is getting old, so this pick makes a lot of sense. Jackson is big and athletic and plays very well in coverage, his speed is pretty good, but I think that he will run very well at the combine and should be a steal at this point in the draft. The Jets could also address the DE position, as John Abraham may not be back next year.

27. Atlanta Falcons*: Adam Terry (OT, Syracuse) – The Falcons looked to be in a great position two weeks ago with the chance to grab a very good tackle at this point in the draft, but the decisions of Marcus McNeill, D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Jonathon Scott to return to school for their senior seasons really hurt them. Kevin Shaffer is clearly not the answer at left tackle, and bringing in a guy like Terry would really improve the offensive line. Terry is huge at 6′9″ and has pretty good speed for his size; I think he will be a solid player in the NFL for the years to come. The Falcons could also consider replacing Cory Hall at safety and Earnest Shazor would be a good fit, but the offensive line is a much more pressing need.

28. San Diego Chargers*: Ernest Shazor (S, Michigan) – Jerry Wilson is obviously not a point of strength on the Chargers defence and probably is better suited to a backup role. Shazor is very gifted physically and is a force against the run. He is also a big hitter (he forced the game-sealing fumble vs. Purdue) and has good speed. His coverage skills could use some work, but they can be improved upon at the next level. The offensive line is obviously a need, and if the Falcons pass on Terry he would be the logical pick here. Also, with two first-round picks it is a distinct possibility that the Chargers will trade up in round one. Still, with a great season under their belts and two first-round picks this year, the Chargers look like they are in a very good position for the coming years.

29. Indianapolis Colts*: Corey Webster (CB, LSU) – The Colts were nearly unstoppable this season on offence and should avoid drafting any offensive players with their high draft picks. However, their defence is quite a different story. Yet again, the Indianapolis defence was very forgettable; were it not for them the Colts would probably have been a lot better than they are. On defence their most pressing need is at corner where Nick Harper and Jason David are both below average. Webster has been a player at LSU for a few years now and would greatly improve the Colts’ weak pass defence. He had a down season at LSU this year and was nagged by injuries for much of the campaign. However, he is a very good prospect at corner and has all the necessary tools to succeed there in the NFL. Defensive tackle and linebacker could also use work, but Webster provides the best value for the Colts at this point.

30. Philadelphia Eagles*: Troy Williamson (WR, South Carolina) – Terrell Owens is obviously a stud, but there is little else in the Eagles’ WR corps that bears mentioning. Greg Lewis, Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston would all make nice third WRs, but none of them is adequately equipped to fill the position, in my opinion. Also, TO is getting on in years and the Eagles will need another consistent WR when he starts to lose a step. Williamson is very fast and has good size at 6′2″, 200 pounds. He could use some polish, but he can be a very effective player in the NFL. He would also be a nice big play threat on a team like the Eagles. Philadelphia could use a back-up RB to Brian Westbrook, and someone to get tough yards, but I think adding another WR would be a better decision, especially with a talent like Williamson available.

31. New England Patriots*: Brandon Browner (CB, Oregon State) – After watching the Pats lose four regular season games in their past two seasons it is very difficult to try and find a point of weakness on their team. The New England secondary, however, was hit hard by injuries to both Ty Law and Tyrone Poole this season, and while their back-ups have played admirably in their place, there is still a need to bring in a young stud at corner. Also, there are rumors that Ty Law and his massive contract will be released from New England this year, and you know that if any team is willing to cut loose a stud over contract issues, it is the Patriots (see: Lawyer Milloy). Browner, a redshirt sophomore, was a surprise declaration for the draft, especially since he was expected to be one of the top corner prospects in the 2006 draft. Browner has a ton of potential and I am very high on him. I think that if he posts a good 40 time, he will be long gone at this point. Browner, at 6′4″, would be one of the tallest corners in the league, and in this age of the big WR that would make him a valuable asset. He also is very athletic and could even be moved to safety by some teams. The Patriots could also use a dominant guard along the offensive line, and Elton Brown would be a nice fit for their team, but I feel selecting a corner would better serve the Patriots’ interests.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers*: Shaun Cody (DT/DE, USC) – The Steelers had a memorable regular season, becoming one of the very few teams in NFL history to post 15 wins in 16 games. A team that wins all of their games except one has to be pretty talented and deep at most positions. The Steelers are no different; there is not a glaring need at any position on their team. Cody had a great season as a pass-rushing DT at USC and would project perfectly in the Steelers 3-4 defence as a defensive end. He was very productive at USC and is a highly effective pass rusher. The Steelers could also stand to add a corner as their CBs are nothing special, but I feel that there is a drop-off after Browner. Were one of the previously mentioned corners to be available here, Pittsburgh would have to take a long look at them. The Steelers could also use some improvement at OLB and Darryl Blackstock would be the ideal fit for their 3-4 defence, but overall this is a very solid team.

Note: * denotes teams that have made the playoffs; draft order is based upon regular season records. The draft order will be finalized after the Super Bowl.

 
Thanks again to Ben, familiar to Forum visitors as Canadian_Cheesehead, for his latest insights!