RankingsNovember 16, 2005


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Strength of Remaining Schedule

By Arlo Vander

It’s the middle of November, and the trading deadline is rapidly approaching in many fantasy leagues. A deadline deal can often change a team’s fortunes considerably, breathing life into struggling teams or providing the final pieces for a championship run. Yet which players should you target, and which should you shop? Whose value will rise during the stretch run, and who will fade away?

We don’t have a crystal ball, unfortunately (well, Dan ‘Start & Sit’ Spazierer might, but he’s not sharing), but we might be able to point you in the right direction with a look at the strength of each team’s remaining schedule.

A number of interesting things can be seen in the chart below. For instance, the defending champion Patriots now have a relatively easy schedule following a grueling first half, but Tom Brady might not be the prime beneficiary, since New England’s opponents tend to be very strong against the pass. Similarly, Carolina’s Jake Delhomme and Atlanta’s Michael Vick will face tough challenges, while Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell, and Trent Green should all benefit from the schedule.

While Bledsoe’s value may rise, along with that of Dallas’ receivers, the Cowboys’ running backs will have their work cut out for them, as will Atlanta’s. On the flip side, Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon will face defenses that struggle against the run. So will Jacksonville’s backs (and incidentally, no team has an easier schedule the rest of the way than the Jaguars).

Needless to say, the strength of a player’s schedule alone should never be the only factor you look at when you consider making a trade. But when two players’ values are close, it can be all the difference in the world.

TEAMOpp W%Avg Opp PPGAvg Opp PAPGAvg Opp Rank vs. RunAvg Opp Rank vs. Pass
Jacksonville (6-3)0.33318.423.821.018.3
Houston (1-8)0.36518.623.918.617.9
Miami (3-6)0.38119.522.321.018.4
New England (5-4)0.38116.921.121.39.7
St. Louis (4-5)0.38118.324.220.919.7
Denver (7-2)0.42919.320.615.615.6
Seattle (7-2)0.42921.222.714.621.3
Minnesota (4-5)0.44419.019.215.014.4
New York Jets (2-7)0.46020.422.821.119.1
San Francisco (2-7)0.46021.623.020.616.6
Washington (5-4)0.47623.722.814.722.0
Arizona (2-7)0.49220.522.520.417.6
Baltimore (2-7)0.49220.320.318.719.4
Oakland (3-6)0.49221.320.014.718.9
Cleveland (3-6)0.50819.519.217.714.3
Philadelphia (4-5)0.50824.321.715.118.3
Green Bay (2-7)0.52418.518.313.313.6
Chicago (6-3)0.54022.619.712.015.6
Cincinnati (7-2)0.54019.318.014.714.1
Detroit (4-5)0.54021.420.118.114.3
New York Giants (6-3)0.54022.621.113.419.9
Tampa Bay (6-3)0.54021.121.319.013.9
Tennessee (2-7)0.54020.319.819.313.7
Pittsburgh (7-2)0.55618.717.417.112.4
Buffalo (4-5)0.57122.720.214.420.1
Carolina (7-2)0.57119.918.717.78.3
Indianapolis (9-0)0.57123.019.814.615.6
New Orleans (2-7)0.57120.720.013.914.0
San Diego (5-4)0.57122.019.315.016.1
Kansas City (5-4)0.58723.420.714.322.6
Atlanta (6-3)0.60320.818.59.310.4
Dallas (6-3)0.60323.920.910.922.0

Legend
Opp W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents
Avg Opp PPG = Average points scored per game by remaining opponents
Avg Opp PAPG = Average points allowed per game by remaining opponents
Avg Opp Rank vs. Run = Average rank of remaining opponents against the run
Avg Opp Rank vs. Pass = Average rank of remaining opponents against the pass

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