Keepers for the 2005 NFL Season: AFC East

• Tweet

• Tweet

And so the 2004 NFL regular season has drawn to a close, and with it the hopes and dreams of so many team owners whose seasons seemed so very bright in, oh … September … October, and even up until last weekend. But for those of you who participate in keeper leagues, one task still remains: selecting those players who will return to your roster for the 2005 season. Keeper leagues are not limited to fantasy football of course. Keeper baseball and basketball leagues abound, and if you don’t, or haven’t ever, participated in such a format, give it a shot!

The “keeper” aspect of fantasy gaming provides for an additional layer of strategy and adds another dimension to the game. And after expending (in many cases) a ridiculous amount of time, research, and energy into the construction of your fantasy team through the draft, waiver wire moves and trades, it’s a tremendous asset to be able to retain your franchise’s key players. Depending upon your league and its rules, the number of athletes you are able to retain from one season to the next varies. Most of the leagues I have participated in provide each owner with three keeper slots. And for the purposes of this article, player rankings will be based upon that number.

Numerous factors should be taken into account prior to givinging a player keeper that keeper tag. Is he eligible to file for free agency? What do the athlete’s team’s prospects look like for the upcoming season? Are younger players pressing for playing time at his position? What’s the team’s depth at that position? Is your star player aging? Does the team’s offensive philosophy and talent, or lack thereof, hinder or boost your player’s production? And the considerations go on and on. So as you can see, there are myriad factors that should be weighed and snap or misinformed decisions will hinder the development of your dynasty.

Let’s examine a few examples of details that might affect your keeper selections for the 2005 season.

Things look mighty bleak for the 49ers in the forseeable future. Head coach Dennis Erickson has led this formerly proud team to a grand total of seven wins after two seasons and almost certainly will be shown the door. And, after interviewing for the Ole Miss head coaching position, how can the guy be brought back anyway? The 49er offensive line is absolutely abysmal, and RB Kevan Barlow has displayed a whole lotta nothing after inking a big-money deal to be the team’s feature back. The team’s prospects probably won’t brighten until the 2006 season at the earliest, and given the lack of stability and talent on the team, no 49er is worth keeping unless you’re in a dynasty league.

Another example: RBs Shaun Alexander, Travis Henry and Edgerrin James are all eligible to file for free agency. Henry, who has proven himself to be a physical and relatively durable back, will certainly re-sign elsewhere as the Bills have their leading man in second-year pro Willis McGahee. If Henry should sign with the Miami Dolphins, who need a feature running back as badly as a fish needs water, will he be as productive with the ‘Phins as he was with the Bills?

In Indianapolis, Colt ownership has expressed a determination to keep “The Triplets” intact and retaining Edge, even if they have to slap the franchise tag on him. Will the Colts be able to give James the kind of money he will command (entering week 17, James is a handful of yards behind the league’s rushing leader, Seahawk Shaun Alexander) after re-signing WR Marvin Harrison to a big deal and having given QB Peyton Manning a king’s ransom before that? And as a running back entering his seventh year in the league, is it even wise for the Colts (or you as a fantasy owner, for that matter) to sign James to the long-term contract he will undoubtedly demand?

Seahawk QB Matt Hasselback is also eligible for free agency. Will RB Shaun Alexander be the ‘Hawks first or second priority? If Seattle should unwisely decide that it’s financially impossible to bring Alexander back, will he be as productive elsewhere?

The Lions have stud players in rookies Kevin Jones and Roy Williams, and allegedly another in WR Charles Rogers. However, what do the Lions have in QB Joey Harrington? Until recently the Lions have not surrounded the erratic signal-caller with much talent, so the hopes for that team and its skill position players ride upon his development. Do you anticipate that by having an improved O-line in front of him, and tremendously talented athletes alongside him, Harrington will indeed step up as a professional quarterback in 2005 and thereby make both Jones and Williams worthwhile keepers?

And lastly, “round and round she goes, on which running back they’ll stop … no one knows!” So goes the game of “running back roulette!” Who will be the Bronco feature back in ‘05: Tatum Bell or Reuben Droughns? Who’s it going to be in Minnesota, Onterrio Smith or Michael Bennett? That’s a lot to consider! So, let’s undertake a divisional, team-by-team analysis.

Athletes will be assessed on a sliding scale; from 4 stars being a no-brainer keeper to 1 star indicating a marginal performer who will probably even be available via the waiver wire after your league’s draft. (Statistics are accurate through week 16)

AFC EAST

New England Patriots

This team has not only kept itself above water, having overcome more adversity and injuries than you can shake a stick at, they’ve thrived. This season has been a real testament to the team’s coaching staff and the player’s intestinal fortitude. Concerns that former Bengal malcontent and new Patriot RB Corey Dillon would be a “locker room cancer” were proven to be groundless. According to teammates, Dillon has brought a measure of toughness and even leadership to the Patriots this season. Meanwhile, QB Tom Brady remains as unflappable in the pocket as ever, capably distributing the ball to everyone except the Beer Vendors in the stands.

QB Tom Brady
3 STARS; 3,466 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs
Brady remains a tier below Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper. This season there was but one game wherein Brady did not throw at least one TD pass, and he really had only one poor game, against the Miami Dolphins and their skilled secondary who have a reputation for making QBs look bad. Nevertheless, owners can expect Brady to improve next season with a full contingent of healthy wide receivers.

RB Corey Dillon
4 STARS; 1,366 yards, 12 TDs (inc. 1 receiving)
Money backs like Dillon are not easy to come by. Dillon’s value even increases as the season drags into winter when the Patriots like to run the ball more at opponents. Who wants to try and hit a bull like Dillon when he’s got a full head of steam going and it’s ten degrees outside? Dillon’s numbers should improve a bit next season as he’ll have had a full year to acclimate to his new team, it’s environs and playbook.

TE Daniel Graham
1 1/2 STARS; 30 receptions, 364 yards, 7 TDs
In this, the year of the tight end, Graham has been one of the more productive ones. Nevertheless, unless your current team is really shallow, TEs capable of contributing are always available through the draft and even waiver wire.

WR David Patten
2 STARS; 43 receptions, 777 yards, 7 TDs
Due to the way Brady distributes the ball, Patten’s really the only Patriot wideout worth considering as a keeper.

Miami Dolphins

This team’s season really ended before week 1. The hopes that running back Ricky Williams would carry this team deep into the playoffs turned out to be nothing more than a “pipe-dream” after he retired and wandered off into Australia’s hinterlands. Couple that shocker with Dan Marino holding the position of “Head of Football Operations” for about … 72 hours and former head coach Dave Wannstedt’s poor decision making, and what you have is a recipe for a league laughingstock. Which is precisely what this franchise has deteriorated into. It will be some time before this team gets it’s act together. The Dolphins need to decide upon their quarterback of the future and find a feature running back who, more than likely, will arrive in the form of a trade or free agent signing. Rumors of the team’s interest in bringing Colt RB Edgerrin James back to Florida have been swirling for some time now, but it would be a surprise if the Colts let James go. The only Dolphins worth keeping are marginal at best; WR Chris Chambers and TE Randy McMichael. Both qualify as 2 STAR keepers. Current quarterback A.J Feeley has some tools and has displayed admirable toughness, but he makes poor decisions and almost certainly will be available through the Waiver Wire…unless you’re part of a VERY deep league.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are another team that has demonstrated great moxie and grit this season. With Travis Henry as the team’s lead running back the Bills started the season in less than impressive fashion. When Henry went down with an ankle injury and Willis McGahee was inserted into the lineup however, the team won five of it’s next seven games and hasn’t looked back since. QB Drew Bledsoe has been a more confident signal caller than he was earlier in the season, and both RB Willis McGahee and emerging rookie WR Lee Evans have quite a bit to do with his, and the team’s, impressive turnaround. This is a franchise that NO one wants to face!

QB Drew Blesoe
1 STAR; 2,743 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs
Although he has looked better in recent weeks, Bledsoe is clearly deep into the twilight of his career. In fact, chances are quite good that had rookie QB J.P Losman not gone down with a leg injury Bledsoe would be the one currently wearing a cap and clutching a clipboard on the sideline. How soon Losman will assume the Bill QB position is unclear, but what is clear is that Bledsoe is simply not worth retaining. He’s another QB that should be available through your draft or even waiver wire… again, unless you’re in a very deep league.

RB Travis Henry
2 1/2 STARS; 94 carries for 326 yards, 0 TDs
I just couldn’t pull the 3 STAR trigger on Henry. I like him as a ‘Back, he helped run my 2003 fantasy team to a Championship. But Henry has been banged up and inconsistent this season. He had zero TDs and zero 100-yards games through week 9! Now, that inconsistency could be attributable to former first round pick Willis McGahee vying for the feature back role and breathing down his neck for the position, but I would’ve liked to see Henry rise to the challenge. A tough back who plays with pain and through injury, Henry will be some team’s lead RB next season. His value however, will be contingent upon where he lands.

RB Willis McGahee
4 STARS; 1049 yards, 11 TDs
Writers and fans nation-wide were calling the draft day selection of the injured McGahee everything from “arrogant” to “downright stupid.” And, with a proven 1,000 yard+ running back on the roster in Travis Henry, it was easy to understand such a reaction. Since week 6 of this season however, the drafting of McGahee has looked far more like a stroke of genius and move of great foresight than anything else. This season has seen McGahee rush for over 100 yards in ten games. In addition, McGahee’s altered his running style. Whereas before he was strictly a speedy and elusive ‘Back, McGahee can now take it between the Tackles and is as capable of running over a defender as he is around him. McGahee can be the kind of RB you craft your draft around. Just keep an eye on what happens at the QB position. If by some chance the Bills should decide to go with Losman as their starter next season McGahee’s value will diminish a bit, opponents will try and bottle him up and dare the young QB to beat them.

WR Eric Moulds
2 1/2 STARS; 84 receptions, 1006 yards, 5 TDs
Moulds is still a productive receiver and will be again next season. However, fellow WR and rookie Lee Evans has quietly replaced Moulds as the true go-to TD man. Moulds will be a fine # 2 or 3 receiver next season, but his, as every skill position player’s value does, will ride upon the shoulders of next season’s starting QB.

WR Lee Evans
3 STARS; 46 receptions, 780 yards, 9 TDs
The Bills have been looking for a wideout capable of stretching the field and starting opposite rock-steady Eric Moulds for several drafts now. This year the Bills finally struck gold. Over the course of the past 4 games Evans has hauled in seven TDs. Evans, RB Willis McGahee, and a rejuvenated and stingy defense are attributable for the Bills’ being able to rise from their early season ashes. Lee Evans should be capable of being a #1 receiver next season…again, contingent upon who’s under Center. Nevertheless, unless your team is positively loaded with true #1 players, Evans is absolutely worthy of a keeper slot.

New York Jets

It’s been an up and down season for the Jets who boast a 10-5 record and still harbor playoff hopes. The coaching staff has been criticized for being too conservative, almost as if they try to avoid losing games as opposed to winning them. In particular, Offensive Coordinator Paul Hackett has been under fire and calls for his head continue. Chad Pennington has also been the recipient of criticism; his arm is too weak, he’s a product of the West Coast offense, etc. One thing is certain however, RB Curtis Martin’s greatness. “CM” is arguably enjoying the best season of his career and has cemented a place for himself in Canton.

QB Chad Pennington
2 STARS, 3 STARS if you’re in a Deeper League; 2,492 yards, 15 TD, 9 INTs
Depending upon the talent on your team, Pennington is certainly worth retaining. Next season, with a healthy shoulder and talented WRs Moss and McCareins at his disposal, Pennington should be able to return to Pro-Bowl form and post the numbers that were expected of him.

RB Curtis Martin
3 1/2 STARS; 1,544 yards, 14 TDs (2 receiving), 223 yards receiving
A stud running back is a fantasy team’s strongest and most critical asset. And accordingly, Curtis Martin’s been one of the league’s most consistent and productive feature ‘Backs. A warrior who was hobbled for most of the ‘03 season playing on 2 badly sprained ankles, Martin is on pace for 350+ totes and has an outside shot of hitting 1800 combined yards this year. Although Martin is at an age where many ‘Backs begin to slow down, CM’s shown no signs of doing so. In fact the Jets are prepared to part ways with Martin’s backup, Lamont Jordan, who’s displayed the capability and desire to be a feature running back elsewhere. Curtis Martin is a must-keep player and will serve as a #1-2 fantasy back in ‘05.

RB Lamont Jordan
1 STAR; 456 yards, 2 TDs, 111 yards receiving
Averaging a robust 5.3 yards per carry, Jordan is a big ‘Back and impressive blend of power, speed and wiggle. He has virtually zero value as a Jet, but Jordan will be a Free Agent this summer and has vowed to leave New York in search of a starting job. Jordan is very capable of assuming the lead ‘Back role and has acquitted himself quite nicely when given the opportunity to play. He can catch the ball coming out of the backfield, pick up the blitz, and with so many teams in need of a running back… Jordan should find a new home with no trouble at all. Lamont Jordan is a true sleeper pick and while he’s really not worth using a keeper slot on … just make sure that you don’t overlook him during next season’s draft!

WR Santana Moss
3 STARS; 41 receptions, 810 yards, 5 TDs
Moss hasn’t been as explosive a playmaker this season as he was last season. Nonetheless, Moss is averaging a hair under 20 yards per reception and possesses the ability to break open a game on virtually any play with his quick-as-a-blink speed. Look for Moss and the Jet receiving game to post much better numbers next season.

WR Justin McCareins
2 STARS; 50 receptions, 708 yards, 4 TDs
One of the reasons McCareins was brought to the Jets was to serve as a red-zone receiving threat. Towards that end he’s come up a bit short. As should Moss, look for McCareins to rebound and have a much better season with the J-E-T-S Jets in ‘05.

Next week we’ll break down the AFC WEST!

 
Jamey Feuer is the Children’s Librarian for a large New Jersey community. Often, parents will bring their little ones to his library with the primary motive of talking sports with Jamey.