Keepers for the 2005 NFL Season: AFC South

The Colts may have stolen the show last season, but the AFC South has plenty more to offer than just Manning, Harrison and James. From up-and-comers like Chris Brown to tried and true veterans such as Jimmy Smith, this division features plenty of intriguing fantasy performers. Which players are worthy of keeper spots on your roster? Read on…

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are like the school yard bully: big, strong and full of bluster, but when whacked soundly in the nose, both tend to collapse into a heap. Those who remember the early 80s Charger teams that were under the stewardship of former head coach Don “Air” Coryell will recall the visionary coach trotting out an offense that possessed a rocket-armed signal-caller working within a philosophy that was well ahead of its time. However, on defense, those same Chargers couldn’t keep a squad of bingo-bound septuagenarians out of the end zone. This millennium’s Indianapolis franchise has much in common with that offensively potent, defensively challenged San Diego squad. While this Colts team boasts a peerless offensive arsenal, it also fields an opportunistic but still underwhelming defense that was ranked 29th overall in yards allowed last season.

Cobbling together a defense that will compliment the vaunted O will be the Colts’ greatest and most important task this off-season. Also, the unanswered questions swirling around RB Edgerrin James’ return must be settled. As the legendary Clash song goes, “should I stay or should I go now?” Although the veteran running back was slapped with the franchise tag and inked to a one-year, $8 million plus contract, Edge’s return is anything but a certainty. Seeking the security of a long-term contract that Indy can ill afford to grant for fear of winding up in salary cap hell, the Colts and James are seeking to arrive upon a mutually amenable solution. Chances are no better than 50/50 that James will be wearing a helmet with a horseshoe come August, however.

The Colts feel that they have a certain measure of security with RB Dominic Rhodes still in the fold. When James went down with a torn ACL in ‘01, Rhodes put on quite a display, amassing 1,100+ yards and nine TDs. That being said, should James depart, the Colts will probably seek to add a running back on Day 1 of the upcoming draft. Assuming that Edge remains a Colt this coming season, however, the “Triplets” (Manning, Harrison, James) will remain intact for a seventh straight season. Consider what that talented troika has accomplished: a trio of divisional titles and five playoff appearances in six seasons. The only year the Colts missed making the playoffs was in 2001, when James was lost to that torn ACL we talked about.

*Note: If James should head to the white sand beaches of Florida and sign a deal with the Miami Dolphins, who covet him and have made no secret of that desire, Manning’s value – and the value of every Indy – receiver, will rise even further.

QB Peyton Manning
4 STARS: 4,557 yards, 49 TDs, 10 INTs
When discussing Peyton Manning and his ability, football fans frequently lapse into fits of hyperbole. Yet, it would seem as if no amount of praise would prove too effusive when mulling Manning’s accomplishments. Quite arguably the best QB of his era, and the type of player who, years from now, will evoke claims of, “I saw him play,” Manning benefits from a scary deep pool of wide receiving talent, a soft-handed, fleet-of-foot tight end whose size poses serious match-up problems in Dallas Clark, and for the time being, anyway, a top-tier feature back in Edgerrin James. Directing his offense much like a great conductor does an orchestra, Manning is capable of seeing things that others cannot, much like a conductor hears things the untrained ear cannot. Thus, the already prolific QB can unmask and exploit almost any defense, even when the best defensive coordinator has done his best to camouflauge its weaknesses. With an improved D supporting him, a full complement of pass catchers at his disposal, and the bitter taste of divisional championship defeat still on his tongue and fresh in his mind, look for Manning to again be single-minded in his efforts to escort the Colts to the Super Bowl. Without question, Peyton Manning should again be fantasy football’s most dangerous weapon and its number one overall draft pick.

*Note: This coming season, with the single-season touchdown record now safely part of his resume, Manning’s TD total, while still absurd, will probably be much closer to 40 than 50.

RB Edgerrin James
4 STARS: 1,548 yards, 9 TDs, 483 rec. yards
The good news for Colt fans is that, for now at least, James remains in Indy. Saying that Edge plays Robin to Manning’s Batman may seem a bit like, well, hyperbole, but there’s no getting around the fact that the Colts’ all-time rushing leader loosens up opposing Ds and provides his QB with greater room to operate. And, having recorded his best season since he tore his ACL in … right, ‘01, James has “a leg to stand upon” with regard to his contract demands. You see, with the Colts having given QB Peyton Manning a king’s ransom of a contract (7 years/$98 million with an eye-ball popping $34.5 million bonus), and Marvin Harrison having received his lotto-type contract (7 years/$67 million with $23 million guaranteed), James quite understandably feels it’s his turn to get paid. But, alas, the Colts cannot mortgage their future for their “right now.” With several teams having expressed interest in the gifted back, James could well be donning a brand new uni come next season.

For a fantasy owner, that’s a very important factor to consider. Should James end up in Miami, his value will diminish, quite possibly significantly. Miami’s iffy QB situation, coupled with it’s dearth of receiving talent, will hinder James as opponents will simply stack the box to stop him and dare the QB (currently AJ Feeley) to beat them. Interestingly, for a big back (he’s listed at 6′, 215 lbs), James has a hard time bulldozing his way into the end zone. Should James remain with Indianapolis, the team is toying with the idea of lining a fullback up in front of him. Such a development could boost James’ TD totals a bit. Keep an eye on the Colts’ draft day machinations, for Edge’s ultimate value is contingent upon his ultimate destination.

WR Marvin Harrison
4 STARS: 86 rec., 1,113 yards, 15 TDs
Harrison and Manning have an uncanny chemistry. With nothing more than a glance or seemingly innocuous gesture, Harrison will know precisley what his QB wants and where he should be. With a history that dates back to Manning’s rookie year of ‘98, Harrison and Manning could eventually be the most prolific catch-and-throw tandem in league history. Is Harrison losing a step as he enters his mid-30s? Maybe. But, the guy’s a training fanatic, a physical marvel (6′, 175 lbs), has never had a major injury) and has talented young receivers in Brandon Stokely and Reggie Wayne to help alleviate the pressure. With other skill position players I will cite statistics and game performances in order to justify my assessment. However, “Marvelous Marvin” is Peyton Manning’s favorite receiver, is quite possibly the NFL’s quietest and most underrated star, should still be good for double-digit TDs next season, and is one of a select few “no brainer” keepers.

WR Reggie Wayne
3 STARS: 77 rec., 1,210 yards, 12 TDs
Wayne’s numbers have steadily improved since his rookie year of 2001. Nevertheless, last season was one of the best ever for a #2 pass catcher. Wayne came up big frequently last year, posting four 100+ yard receiving days (including an inspired 11-grab, 184-yard week 3 game against the Packers) and three 90+ yard receiving days. Wayne recorded TDs in 10 of 16 games last season, and should again make for a nice #2-3 fantasy pass catcher. If Harrison should prove to have lost a step next season, and after a ridiculous 15-TD campaign there’s nothing to indicate that he has, Wayne will assume an even larger role than he did this past year. Depending upon the depth of your team’s skill position players, allot a keeper slot to this skilled receiver who’s just entering his prime at age 27. After a breakout 12-TD season in an offense that features the league’s top QB and emphasizes the passing game, Wayne’s an absolute keeper.

WR Brandon Stokely
2 1/2 STARS: 68 rec., 1,077 yards, 10 TDs
With a remarkably consistent knack for getting open, Stokely didn’t just emerge last season, he positively blew up! Drafted in ‘99, Stokely’s previous most productive campaign was 2002 when he notched 24 receptions for 357 yards and two TDs. Was last season an aberration? Quite possibly. On any other team Stokely would be afforded “2 STAR” status, but with Manning as his QB … how can you bet against the speedy receiver? Interestingly, Stokely was either overlooked or almost overworked depending upon the opponent: seven games saw Stokely record fewer than five catches, and there were seven contests where he had five or more grabs. Here’s the rub: even though Stokely had 10 TDs (exactly half of his career total), there were games, and indeed stretches of games, where he just disappeared. This season should be an intriguing one for Stokely, especially if RB Edgerrin James is sent packing, for the team will be forced to rely even more heavily upon its third and fourth receivers. For those of you who belong to yardage leagues, Stokely possesses even greater value.

Colt Extra Points: Recently, the team parted ways their long time TE, Marcus Pollard. One of Manning’s favorite red zone and “safety valve” targets due to his ability to catch almost anything thrown within reach, Pollard posted a mere 29 receptions this past season, but six resulted in TDs. The greatest beneficiary of Pollard’s departure will be fellow TE Dallas Clark, who possesses the ability to split coverage and find the soft spots in zones. And with 25 receptions for a wide receiver-esque average of 16.9 yards per catch and five TDs to his credit, Clark will be a top sleeper this season. However, the loss of Pollard will have significant ripple effects. The team will now be forced to adapt the playbook substantially as they will be unable to run their preferred two-TE sets. Another sleeper is RB Dominic Rhodes, owner of a gaudy 4.8 yard per carry average. If James is dealt, the Colts may well rely upon Rhodes. Lastly, Mike Vanderjagt, once referred to as “that … (insert your own insult) drunken kicker,” was 59/60 for PATs and 20/25 in FG attempts. A savvy owner won’t underestimate the value of a kicker (depending, of course, upon your league), and next to New England’s Adam Vinatieri no other kicker is as reliable or cool under pressure. To be clear, I am not suggesting owners burn keeper slots on kickers. Rather, I am saying that smart owners don’t “punt” the kicker position.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans proved to be a frustrating team to watch last season and things might not be a whole lot better this time. Gone is McNair’s “safety blanket” pass catcher, the sturdy and reliable Derrick Mason, now a Raven and destined to be Kyle Boller’s new favorite receiver. In conjunction, highly touted WR Tyrone Calico, a 6′4″, 220 pound speedster, was a non-factor in ‘04 due to injury. According to reports, Calico (who’s five months into his rehab for a torn ACL) has been running and working on exploding into his cuts. That’s all well and good, but Calico has yet to cash in on his considerable size and talent. One potential sleeper is the 6′4″, 260 pound TE, Ben Troupe. Last season’s second round pick and owner of a timed 40-yard dash of 4.7 seconds, he could be a coverage nightmare for opposing DBs and LBs, assuming he’s finally got the playbook down. Still, fantasy owners will be well served drafting skill position players from other teams. Given the sheer number of free agent defections and salary cap casualties, the Tennessee Titans will probably be no better than a first year expansion team this coming season.

QB Steve McNair
2 1/2 STARS; 1,343 yards, 8 TDs, 9 INTs
On-field sightings of “Air McNair” have proven to be increasingly rare. The QB’s ‘04 season was an injury-plagued affair and ended up being a virtual washout. Frustrated and expressing his desire to simply have the ability to ambulate when older, McNair (now 32) seriously contemplated hanging ‘em up due to his accumulated aches and agonies. But, it would seem as if this gamer’s good for at least one more season. He will however, have a somewhat suspect receiving corps at his disposal.

Unless the aforementioned Tyrone Calico puts on an absolute clinic in mini-camp or the pre-season, or the Titans make a big draft day move and acquire a #1 wideout (taking nothing away from Drew Bennett), I’d look elsewhere for my fantasy QB as the team will play a more run-oriented game plan with their young back, Chris Brown, returning to health. And should McNair get nicked up in the pre-season (it’d be shocking if he plays more than a few pre-season quarters anyway) or early regular season, don’t be stunned if he decides to reverse field and suddenly opt for retirement. Interestingly enough, an intriguing draft day pick (especially for those of you in dynasty or keeper leagues) for daring franchise owners might be McNair’s backup, Billy Volek, a guy who’d be a starter for many teams. Volek, who developed impressive chemistry with WR Drew Bennett, went off for 2,486 yards, 18 TDs and 10 INTs. With huge games in weeks 14 and 15 against the hapless Chiefs and Raiders, Volek recorded a combined 918 passing yards and eight TDs. The kid cooled off considerably during the final two weeks of the season, however, much to the dismay of the many owners who were counting on him to carry their teams to fantasy football’s post-season glory. Nevertheless, Volek showed enough to be counted upon to one day (and that day may come sooner rather than later) be a top fantasy performer.

RB Chris Brown
3 STARS: 1,067 yards, 6 TDs
For a big guy, Brown’s another Titan who can be found on the trainer’s table with an irritating regularity. Weeks 1-10 (the team enjoyed a week 9 bye) saw Brown post solid fantasy numbers; he broke 100 yards rushing in five of those nine contests, and scored five TDs. However, weeks 11-17 were another story, with the Titan back playing in just two of seven games (weeks 13 and 14). In those contests Brown ran for another 195 yards and one score. Owners who were anticipating a 1,600 yard, double-diggy TD season were sorely disappointed. As Chicago Cubs fans are often overheard saying, “maybe this season?” The trouble with Brown may lie in his running style. Listed at 6′ 3″, Brown’s a tall back who runs with an upright stance. Such an approach frequently leaves him open to punishing hits. And, as his QB can well attest, those nicks and dings can really start to add up. During this past off-season Brown had surgery on both ankles. Due to the iffy nature of the Tennessee QB and WR situations, coupled with Brown’s penchant for getting banged up, perhaps leave Brown to another owner.

WR Drew Bennett
2 1/2 STARS: 80 rec., 1,247 yards, 11 TDs
This dude went from being an undrafted unkown, to a household name (at least in those homes where the residents play fantasy sports) inside of a season. Why? Let me throw some numbers at you: 379, 478, 504 and 1,247. Mean anything? If not, the first three figures are Bennett’s yards receiving totals for the years ‘01-’03, the last is his ‘04 total. Impressed, but still unconvinced? Ok, how ’bout, 1 2, 4, and 11. Those digits would be Bennett’s TD totals correlating with the same years.

Now you’re impressed and eager to see more from Bennett, aren’t you? Well, so are the Titans. But, if the increased expectations that come with such a breakout performance weren’t pressure enough, with the loss of WR Derrick Mason to Baltimore through free agency comes the ascension of Bennett to #1 WR receiver status. Yet, with jaw-dropping performances such as his week 14, 12-catch, 233-yard, three-TD effort, it’s easy to understand the ownership and coaching staff’s titanic confidence. But can the young pass catcher duplicate such hefty numbers? It’s difficult to forecast, especially given the unsettled nature of the team’s offensive personnel. Of the five games in which Bennett toasted foes for at least 100+ yards receiving, three came during the season’s final quarter. As a point of reference, through the first 11 games of last season, Bennett snared a mere two TDs. While the guy’s a sharp route runner and possesses deceptive speed, the better gamble is to not afford Bennett keeper status. Rather, try and draft the over-achieving pass catcher in the early to middle rounds. Without Derrick Mason on the field to monopolize the attention of the opposing team’s top cover man, Bennett may well find himself facing a far more difficult challenge.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Already fielding an impressive pair of bookend defensive tackles in Johnathan Henderson and Marcus Stroud, the Jags further bolstered an already formidable D by adding former Denver Bronco and pass rush specialist Reggie Hayward. Hayward, who notched an impressive 10 1/2 Sacks last season, will help turn the Jaguar pass rush into one of the most relentless in the league. And as if that wasn’t enough, the Jags continued to improve the defensive side of the ball by adding defensive end Marcellus Wiley. If nothing else, the nine-year veteran will help provide depth and run support. What the team really needs though, and desperately, are offensive playmakers. While I don’t mean to diminish Jimmy Smith’s more than adequate ‘04 campaign, a #1 pass catcher must record more than a fistful of TDs; Smith crossed the goal line a mere six times. Further complicating matters is the fact that the next most productive Jaguar wide receiver, Troy Edwards, posted a very pedestrian 50 grabs for 533 yards and one TD. In addition, it’s time for these cats to begin grooming an heir to RB Fred Taylor’s throne. While Taylor also had a solid season on paper, on the gridiron … well, that was something else entirely. While the former big game back did rack up almost 1,300 rushing yards, his continued inability to find the end zone has caused the Jacksonville coaching staff, and his fantasy owners, to pull their collective hair out by its roots. The team tried to answer the skill position issues, assuredly not new dilemmas, unsuccessfully through last season’s draft by taking wide receiver Reggie Williams in the first round, and RB Greg Jones in the second. Both athletes fell as flat as sewer caps, however. While Williams hauled in 27 balls for 268 yards and one TD, his average yards per catch, 9.9, was more what you’d expect from a fullback. Likewise, RB Greg Jones notched three TDs and amassed a less than inspiring 162 yards on 62 totes, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Clearly, the Jaguar staff must do a better job finding athletes who are both NFL ready and who fit their offensive scheme … which begs another question. What is Jacksonville’s offensive philosophy? If the team doesn’t bring a take-charge offensive coordinator on board soon, QB Byron Leftwich’s development threatens to be permanenetly retarded.

QB Byron Leftwich
3 STARS: 2,491 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs
Byron Leftwich is blossoming into a reliable if unspectacular fantasy starter. From a fantasy perspective you’ve got to like the fact that “Lefty” tossed TD passes in 11 of 16 games last season and threw more TDs then INTs. If there is a downside to slapping a keeper tag on Leftwich it’s the fact that the young signal-caller lacks a true vertical threat capable of helping him inflate his yardage and TD totals. Also, it should be noted that he’s frequently banged up and plays hurt with some regularity; he missed a pair of games to a knee injury last season. If the Jags can manage to line up a credible receiving threat opposite the aging Jimmy Smith (and this draft, while not deep in WR talent, includes several standouts), Lefty’s value will escalate considerably. The caveat being that the team really doesn’t have the luxury of drafting a project. Rather, they need a rookie pass catcher capable of making an immediate impact.

RB Fred Taylor
2 1/2 STARS: 1,224 yards, 3 TDs (1 rec.), 345 rec. yards.
Many owners may still shy away from drafting this speedy back due to fears over his sturdiness or perceived lack thereof. But, how many owners are aware that prior to sitting out the final two games of last season due to an acute knee injury Taylor had strung together 46 consecutive starts? The Jags’ first round pick of ‘98, Taylor missed 24 of his first 64 contests to various injuries; including a knee-clampingly painful sounding abdominal injury wherein his groin muscles actually tore away from his pelvis (and yes, my knees are currently mashed together). Still, last season marked Taylor’s fifth 1,000 yard season in seven years. Pretty impressive stuff when you consider his earlier fragility. As the centerpiece of the Jaguar O, though, one would like to see Taylor post more than just the trio of TDs he accumulated all of last season. Still possessing good speed even at this stage of his career, (Fred won’t be celebrating his 30th birthday until the end of next season) the guy has the wheels to take it to the house from virtually anyplace on the field. But the fact of the matter is, until such time as defenses are forced to guard against the long passing play Fred Taylor will continue to be greeted by defenses and schemes geared almost expressly toward stopping him. This is yet another example of an athlete whose value in yardage leagues far surpasses his value in TD leagues.

Houston Texans

Here’s the Texans’ deal in a nutshell: “needs, needs, needs.” Having released linebackers Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman, the Texans will seek to replace the meat of the D through the draft. The team, running a 3-4 scheme, was largely unable to mount a pass rush last season and they will quite probably consider taking an outside ‘backer on Day 1. In conjunction, the staff still isn’t comfortable with either their cornerback or offensive line situations, and the team has a safety with coverage skills close to the top of its draft day wish list. While last year’s first round pick, CB Dunta Robinson, has shown great promise, he’s still raw and remains a work in progress. Meanwhile, cornerback Aaron Glenn (33) has lost a step and is on the downside of his career. As for the O-line? Carr was sacked 49 times last season; ’nuff said. The Texans must find someone – anyone – capable of protecting QB David Carr’s blind side. Protection has been an ongoing problem for the team. And, while the team selected OT Seth Wand in the third round of the ‘03 draft, he hasn’t been the answer either. An agile offensive tackle will prove to be another high draft day priority. Lastly, the team still needs to find a legitimate receiving threat to play opposite promising WR Andre Johnson. Owning the 13th pick in this year’s draft, the Texans could go either way, wide receiver or offensive line. While rumor has it the team would like to take a running back capable of pushing or filling in for Domanick Davis, the team has numerous needs that are far more pressing.

QB David Carr
2 STARS: 3,531 yards, 16 TDs, 14 INTs.
Entering a “make or break” season, Carr doesn’t rate a keeper tag unless you belong to a deep league. Having tossed picks in nine of 16 games last season and with a disconcerting six INTs to four TDs over the season’s final quarter, Carr must work upon his decision making. One rather urgent problem for Carr has been the unfortunate drubbing he’s endured at the hands of the assorted linebackers, cornerbacks, defensive ends, and occassional DBs and DTs that have sacked him 140 times over the course of his first three seasons. Again, that’s no misprint. Carr has been sacked 140 times over his three seasons in the NFL, and that number doesn’t include the countless knockdowns, hurries and late hits he’s been subjected to. Carr’s been the recipient of some absolute tattoos, and while you’ve got to admire his toughness, we’re talking production here. We’re talking fantasy value. And, fortunately, Carr’s got a few weapons at his disposal. WR Andre Johnson is perched on the very cusp of stardom, and RB Domanick Davis is a dangerous ball carrier, capable of burning the defense that foolishly chooses to discount him. All the same, Carr and his Texans remain at least one playmaker away from being able to take foes out to the woodshed. However, Carr has proven himself capable of really hanging some numbers. And with a season that saw the developing signal-caller post 200+ passing yards in 11 games and a pair of 300+ yard passing games, Carr is a far more attractive yardage league QB. Although the TD numbers should rise in ‘05, Carr will still be a second to third tier QB in most leagues.

RB Domanick Davis
3 STARS: 1,180 yards, 14 TDs (1 rec.), 588 rec. yards
Those fantasy owners who entered last season believing Davis to be nothing more than a flash in the pan athlete incapable of carrying the load missed out on a top five fantasy back. Davis actually proved himself to be the very definition of a workhorse back, both on the gridiron and in fantasy games, recording at least 20 totes in eight games (and 19 in one more), and scores in 12 of 16 contests. But Davis offers his offensive coordinator and owners more than just speed to the outside and power between the tackles. He possesses excellent hands and is a viable passing game weapon. With five 50+ yard receiving days, the guy’s more than just a safety valve receiver. And, although ball security was an issue at the start of the season (Davis had put the ball on the ground four times by the end of week 2), few backs were more reliable by week 17. Any owner contemplating cutting this kid loose obviously has a stacked roster … or has no business playing fantasy football.

WR Andre Johnson
2 1/2 STARS: 79 rec., 1,142 yards, 6 TDs
The ‘03 draft’s third overall pick possesses prototype size (6′3″, 220 lbs), outstanding speed, great hands, tremendous vertical leap, an acrobat’s body contro, and the ability to track and high point the ball. Johnson is assuredly one of the league’s most talented wideouts, with the ability to be a Pro Bowl regular for the better part of the next decade. But, after finishing poorly for a second straight season, Johnson clearly has some work to do before he’ll be considered a finished product. Although he snagged almost 80 passes last year and recorded a reception of 30 yards or more in seven games (ok, one was for 29 yards), the final quarter of the season saw a significant decline in Johnson’s production, with a mere 11 grabs for 124 yards and one TD. It would seem as if the talented pass catcher relies upon his natural ability a bit too often. Johnson’s one of those athletes who is difficult to assess. Certainly, a 1,100+ yard receiving season is heady stuff … but again, here’s a case where the athlete rates another 1/2 star if you belong to a yardage league, as a fantasy team’s #1 pass catcher must record more than a handful of TDs.

 
Jamey Feuer is the Children’s Librarian for a large New Jersey community. Often, parents will bring their little ones to his library with the primary motive of talking sports with Jamey.

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Jamey Feuer is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Jamey in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of jameeman.