Keepers for the 2005 NFL Season: AFC West

After kicking off this series with the AFC East, it’s time to head across the continent and take a look at the division that’s home to the Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders…

AFC WEST

Put simply, with the exception of the San Diego Chargers, this division was just awful this year. The teams of the AFC West took it upon their shoulder pads to prove the NFL’s age-old adage, ‘defense wins football games,’ to be true by failing to play defense, and therefore failing to earn victories.

Coupling several of the league’s most powerful and talented offenses with some of the weakest defensive units in professional football, this division was a spectacular disappointment.

At the start of the ‘04 season, Raider Nation had good reason to believe that they had a vastly improved team to root for; Chiefs fans were whooping it up, confident in ‘their’ Priest’s ability to lead them to the post-season promised land; the Broncos were poised to buck the perception that only John Elway was capable of taking the team to the Super Bowl; and the Chargers were quietly confident that they would be the league’s surprise team.

And when the ashes of the AFC West’s disastrous regular season cooled, the Chargers were the only team left standing.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are renowned for pursuing big name, retirement age free agents. Team owner Al Davis, always stylin’ with his circa 1920 librarian’s spectacles and Grecian Formula hair-do, has truly become football’s answer to New York Yankee team owner George Steinbrenner. Former Buccaneer DL Warren Sapp was signed with the hope that he would rejuvenate a stagnant pass-rush while helping to shore up a porous run defense. But Sapp’s ’sapped.’ Big-bellied and slow-footed, the former star defender was rarely a factor. Observers believe however, that the team’s defensive style hindered Sapp and is a poor fit for its personnel.

Likewise, the Raiders have been searching for a legitimate running game for several years now. Greybeard RB Tyrone Wheatley provided Oakland with the closest thing to it, but the injury-prone and aging back is closer to retirement than anything else. The team drafted RB Justin Fargas in ‘03, hoping that he could be a Warrick Dunn type of rusher. But the concerns about his sturdiness and ability to assume a third-down role were well-founded, and Fargas appears to be nothing more than a speedy change-of pace back at best. Towards the end of the season college QB-turned-WR Ronald Curry really came on as a field-stretching threat, as did WR Doug Gabriel. Likewise, hulking second-year WR Teyo Johnson demonstrated that he could provide opponents with matchup difficulties as well. The team, under the stewardship of Kerry Collins, began to develop an offensive identity over the final quarter of the season. Look for the Silver and Black to seek defensive help through the draft and pursue a running back through free agency. Bengal back Rudi Johnson comes to mind and might be a good fit. Jet free agent to be LaMont Jordan also has a running style that might mesh well with the Raiders’ offensive philosophy.

QB Kerry Collins
2 STARS; 3,495 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs
Collins is a strong-armed, one-dimensional pocket passer who has become a bit of a journeyman. Because of his arm, each team that has given him a paycheck has envisioned him as their starter. The Raiders’ offensive system places great emphasis on the vertical game; stretching the field with their track star receiving corps. Therefore, Collins would seem to be an ideal fit as the deep ball is probably his greatest strength. There are concerns however. The lack of any real running attack will allow opponents to shut down the passing game, providing the LBs with opportunities to blitz the daylights out of Collins. Towards the end of his Giant career Collins was a shell of a QB. With his eyes wide and glassy, Collins was always expecting the next big hit. If opposing Ds can get in Collins’ grill and knock him down a few times … they’ll be able to throw him off of his game and shut down an otherwise potent offense. But if the Raiders can secure a playmaker at running back, the value of Collins and all Raider skill position players will increase.

WR Jerry Porter
3 STARS; 64 rec., 998 yards, 9 TDs
Porter is a very talented, still developing pass catcher. He was, however, much more productive and impressive over the final third of the season. Porter’s numbers could well be attributable to his impending free agency and quest for a ‘lotto’ type contract, however. Although he’s sworn to move on, the chemistry he developed with QB Kerry Collins paired with a big money contract might be sufficient motivation for Porter to remain a Raider.

No other Raider skill position players are worthy of retaining as they can be acquired via the draft or waiver wire.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers were the biggest surprise team in all of football this season. Boasting a Comeback Player of the Year in QB Drew Brees, an MVP candidate in undrafted second-year TE and former hoopster Antonio Gates, and a perennial Pro-Bowler in RB LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers were Super Bowl hopefuls. A vastly improved offensive line provided QB Drew Brees ample time to throw and a choice of passing lanes while opening huge holes for LaDainian Tomlinson to roar through. As for the defense, the secondary features fast, aggressive young corners, and the team possesses a swift, sure tackling group of LBs, capable of flowing swiftly to the ball and shutting down any team’s running attack. Head coach Marty Schottenheimer did a masterful job of remolding this team into a winning franchise and deserved Coach of the Year honors.

QB Drew Brees
3 STARS; 3,159 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs
Operating out of a simplified West Coast offensive and with nothing to lose, Brees played smart, good football while securing a Pro Bowl berth and the Comeback Player of the Year award. Several factors played a role in Brees’ re-emergence: a vastly improved O-line, wide receivers who can actually catch the ball and make things happen after the catch, the out-of-nowhere emergence of TE and fellow Pro Bowler Antonio Gates, and an improved Bolts D that puts far less pressure on the offense to score with every possession. The Chargers will soon be faced with a quarterback quandary however. They have a very accurate, unflappable QB who has also stepped up as a team leader in Drew Brees, and a high first-round investment in rookie Philip Rivers. Smart money says the Chargers franchise Brees and try and move one of the signal-callers on or around draft day. If the Bolts decide to hold onto both QBs, expect the resurgent Brees to enter the 2005 season as the unquestioned starter and to be a top fantasy option as well. It also wouldn’t be a great surprise if Brees’ numbers increase with a healthy Reche Caldwell returning to the fold in ‘05.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson
4 STARS; 1,335 yards, 18 TDs (1 rec.), 441 yards receiving
Enough good things can’t be said about this enormously productive work horse of a back. A humble kid possessing an exemplary work ethic, LT has soft hands, can catch the ball coming out of the backfield or line up as a wide receiver (he caught more than 100 passes in ‘03), and he can pick up the blitz. Tomlinson is the textbook definition of a ‘complete’ running back. Due to the improved wide receivers, Tomlinson’s receptions have decreased by 50% … but that’s a good thing! Brees was positively besieged last season, often forced to dump the ball off to his safety valve, LT. This year, however, the skilled back has been able to do that which he does best: run right, run left, run over and run around. LT is a fantasy player capable of carrying an entire franchise and so long as he remains healthy, he should have great value for the next five years or so.

TE Antonio Gates
3 STARS; 81 rec., 964 yards, 13 TDs
A former basketball player, Gates hadn’t played organized football since high school. Nevertheless, Gates has been virtually impossible to cover. A matchup nightmare akin to Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez, imagine how good Gates will be once he learns the nuances of his position! Gates is seemingly the best real and fantasy TE since the Ravens drafted Todd Heap. And, while TEs are generally not considered keeper material, Gates is an anomaly. Capable of making 10-13 grabs per game, Gates has enjoyed several multiple-TD games and is no run of the mill pass-catcher. Unless you have a trio of top ten RBs or WRs, Gates should be on your roster in 2005.

Due to the nature of the Charger offense, no other skill position players currently warrant keeper status. Savvy owners will however keep an eye on WR Eric Parker. With his speed and ability to make things happen after the catch, Parker’s a potential #2-3 fantasy receiver. Also, keep a pre-season eye on WR Reche Caldwell. The light had seemingly come on for the emerging wideout … but then he was lost for the season with a leg injury. Caldwell offers deceptive speed and improved pass-catching skills. Complementing Gates and Tomlinson, Caldwell might make for a competent #2 fantasy WR next season.

Denver Broncos

Here’s a team that’s proven to be a true enigma. QB Jake ‘The Snake’ Plummer remains as erratic as a Bronco as he was as a Cardinal. The guy still makes bad decisions, still lacks maturity from time to time, and still tries to force passes into openings not much bigger than a postage stamp. The other thing Plummer still continues to do? Tease you with talent. He can demonstrate flashes of brilliance that make your eyes pop open. Another issue that has become an ongoing Denver soap opera is the running back position. Reuben Droughns or Tatum Bell? Tatum Bell or Reuben Droughns? It’s running back roulette and ’round and ’round she goes and on which back she’ll stop no one knows!

The loss of DL Trevor Pryce affected the team’s ability to rush the passer all season, while the previously stingy secondary has been picked on with alarming frequency as well. Even with a playoff berth, Denver’s season can only be considered disappointing.

** Note, Denver’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts couldn’t have come as a surprise to the knowledgeable football fan. Plummer had a decent day, going 24/34 for 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. The Denver D couldn’t have been expected to contain Colt QB Peyton Manning who resumed his assault on opposing defenses. Manning made the Denver D look like a high school squad, going 27/33 for 457 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. Ridiculous!

QB Jake Plummer
2 STARS; 4,089 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs
Plummer is known for his exciting style of play and comeback ability. But he can also be wildly inconsistent and has increasingly frustrated the Denver fan base with his see-saw play. If he’s known for his comeback capabilities … then it’s because his teams have frequently been playing from behind. Plummer blends big play potential with frustrating decision-making skills. Although you might see a decrease in his interceptions next season, at this point in Plummer’s career, what you see is what you get. Plummer is almost too erratic to be considered a #1 fantasy QB.

RB Reuben Droughns
2 1/2 STARS; 1,240 yards, 8 TDs (2 rec.), 241 yards rec.
If we look at head coach Mike Shanahan’s history and the way both Bronc’ backs were used towards season’s end, it would appear as if Droughns’ role will be substantially reduced in ‘05. He might be used in goal-line situations, or as Shanny did with former 1,500-yard rusher Mike Anderson, move Droughns back to his old position of fullback. That would be a bitter pill for Droughns to swallow after his extraordinary season, but the Broncos didn’t draft Tatum Bell to distribute Gatorade. Given the way both backs were used in last Sunday’s playoff loss to Indianapolis, Droughns’ value will be marginal next season. However, keep him on your radar. If Tatum Bell should go down with an injury, which is precisely what happened this season, Droughns will be thrown right back into the feature back role.

RB Tatum Bell
3 STARS; 396 yards, 3 TDs
This is no easy decision given the way Bronco head coach Mike Shanahan has juggled RBs. Droughns, a back-up FB entering the season, really caught team observers by surprise with his game-breaking ability. Don’t forget, at the start of the season everyone was excited by what ‘jitterbug’ RB Quentin Griffin brought to the position. Next year, however, given his durability, Griffin will probably serve as a super-elusive scat-back. Bell was drafted with the anticipation that he’d be the feature RB in the not too distant future. And that future is ‘05; look for this speedy and elusive runner to emerge next season and have great value as the Broncs’ featured back. And, while assigning a keeper slot to Bell would constitute a bit of a gamble, the potential payoff is a #1 fantasy running back.

WR Rod Smith
2 1/2 STARS; 79 rec., 1,144 yards, 7 TDs
Smith has been a very productive, prolific receiver, but is arguably entering the twilight of his extraordinary career. A wonderfully conditioned athlete, Smith has been as reliable a wideout as any in the league. And although he posted very good numbers this season, it wouldn’t come as a great surprise if both the running game and emerging pass catcher Ashley Lelie cut into Smith’s numbers next year. The Broncos may also be looking to add another playmaking pass catcher in the off-season. Or, they may elect to stand pat, improve the defense, and see what they have in young WRs Triandos Luke and Darius Watts. Luke in particular has intriguing skills.

WR Ashley Lelie
2 1/2 STARS; 54 rec., 1,084 yards, 7 TDs
Lelie, drafted two years ago, really emerged this season. A fast, fluid receiver, Lelie has developed a knack for getting behind CBs and has displayed better pass-catching techniques. Look for the youngster to build upon this year’s excellent production and post even better numbers in ‘05.

Kansas City Chiefs

If this team fielded any kind of defense they’d be unstoppable. With an offense virtually able to score at will, an awful KC D has ensured that opponents can do the same. In particular, poor play from the secondary has kept this team from achieving any real success. Both QB Trent Green and all-world TE Tony Gonzalez aren’t getting any younger, and RB Priest Holmes has lost large chunks of the past two seasons due to injury and had been toying with retirement. Thus, the time is now for the Chiefs. Look for the team to make a determined effort to bolster the D in the off-season and make a strong Super Bowl push next year.

QB Trent Green
4 STARS; 4,591 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs
Trent Green is the epitome of the pocket passer, and if forced to scramble … well, a cactus is probably more nimble than the statue-esque quarterback. Nevertheless, an explosive run game has made Green even more dangerous and he’s posted some very impressive yardage totals this season. Arguably a better fantasy QB than NFL passer, Green is a true #1 fantasy player and if you’re fortunate enough to have him on your roster … you’d better keep him. If the Chiefs can add another play-making wideout, or if if the young and impressive Samie Parker can step up and provide Green with a true, speedy, field-stretching pass catcher, Green’s TD total could even creep up a bit.

RB Priest Holmes
4 STARS: 892 yards, 15 TDs (1 rec.), 187 yards receiving
Holmes, when healthy, is a peerless running back capable of posting gaudy fantasy numbers. Able to hit the hole at full speed the moment it develops, Priest is powerfully built and is able to gain yards after contact. He’s also very fast, and nimble enough to cut a run back against the grain. A valuable red-zone weapon who can be his own lead blocker, Holmes has put aside those rumors alluding to his retirement. A fully healthy and rejuvenated Priest Holmes could be next season’s most valuable fantasy football player. The only concern is his durability.

RB Larry Johnson
3 STARS: 581 yards, 11 TDs (2 rec.), 278 yards rec.
Johnson hopped out of his diapers and spat out the pacifier during week 12, and he hasn’t looked for a rattle since. The well-publicized tiff between head coach Dicky ‘Tears’ Vermeil and RB Larry ‘Lil’ J’ Johnson certainly seemed to motivate last year’s first round pick. Since being introduced to the starting lineup following Holmes’ season-ending injury, Johnson has run hard and has been everything the team hoped for when they drafted the Penn State product. But here’s the catch: Priest returns to his flock next season, and there’s no room for a disciple in ‘05. Thus, look for the Chiefs to move Johnson through a trade that will most likely bolster the D before, or on, draft day ‘05.

TE Tony Gonzalez
4 STARS: 102 rec., 1,258 yards, 7 TDs
In this, the Year of the Tight End,Tony Gonzalez is the patriarch. Hall of Fame TE Kellen Winslow may well have redefined the position, making the athlete more of a pass-catching weapon, but since Winslow no TE has so dominated the position until Gonzalez. For an unacceptably long time ‘Gonzo’ was the sole receiving weapon in Kansas City. But the Chiefs now have wideouts capable of taking the pressure off of him, and those receivers are helping to boost Gonzalez’ numbers while prolonging his career. Unless you have three #1 skill position players, Gonzo is worthy of a keeper slot.

The Chiefs have a cast of wideouts that include Chris Horn, Eddie Kennison, Johnny Morton and the aforementioned Samie Parker. None, however, are worthy of assigning a keeper slot to. Don’t overlook Eddie Kennison during your league’s ‘05 draft, however. While he may not warrant a keeper slot, his 1,100 yards receiving and eight TDs do make him worthy of drafting.

Up next … the NFC NORTH!

 
Jamey Feuer is the Children’s Librarian for a large New Jersey community. Often, parents will bring their little ones to his library with the primary motive of talking sports with Jamey.