Focus: Tatum Bell
A weekly expository look at players who have momentum

Each week, Daniel Gilford reviews a player who has performed well recently. Daniel analyzes the player’s past performances, evaluates his present value, and projects his future significance as a fantasy football player. He also answers football questions in his new feature, “The Mailbox.” What’s one of the biggest headaches for fantasy football owners? The answer is “running back by committee.” You know it, you’ve been there. Most every fantasy football owner has had to deal with this tragedy at one point in his or her career, and owners of Tatum Bell are in this situation now. What is Bell’s real value? Let’s take a look…

Past

Known as one of the fastest running backs in the nation during high school, Tatum Bell rushed for 1,225 yards and 19 touchdowns in DeSoto, Texas. He was also known early in his career for his all-round versatility, and in high school he actually threw for three touchdowns and returned a kick all the way. Many of the major college football teams started to recruit Bell.

Choosing to attend Oklahoma State University over schools like Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, Tatum quickly developed and clocked a 4.34 forty yard dash. His accomplishments certainly paid off for his team.

Bell was able to play 41 total games at OSU, racking up 3,409 yards on just 634 carries. By averaging 5.4 yards a carry and scoring 34 touchdowns at OSU, Tatum was able to break many school and Big 12 conference records. He finished his college career ranked sixth in all-time rushing yards in the Big 12, eighth in all-time average yards per carry, and fifth in rushing touchdowns.

With this skill, Bell found a way onto the Broncos’ draft board, and he was selected with the 41st overall pick in the 2004 draft.

His rookie year proved to be an effective start for his promising career. He rushed for 396 yards and three touchdowns despite being third on the depth chart. One reason for his emergence even while performing backup duties was his yards-per-carry average. Bell racked up an average of 5.3 yards per rushing attempt in his rookie season.

Performance

Bell became a much more productive player in 2005.

With the absence of Reuben Droughns and the decline of Quentin Griffin, Bell has been fed the ball more and more this year. In his first three games in the 2005 season, Bell ran for 154 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

In week 5 against Washington, Bell truly proved to his team that he could make a huge impact. Even though he was handed the ball only twelve times during the game, Bell was able to compile 127 yards with a whopping 10.6 yards per carry. His longest run was 55 yards, and even if you take out this huge run he still averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. That’s quite a good number. In addition to this he scored two touchdowns.

Against New England in week 6, Bell did not disappoint, either. On thirteen carries Tatum picked up 114 yards, with an average of 8.8 yards per carry and a touchdown. If we remove his 68-yard run, he still ends up with a solid 3.8-yard average.

Potential

In 2005, Bell’s stock in Denver has skyrocketed. So far he has 395 total yards on the year, only a yard less than his rookie season total. He has also scored just as many touchdowns this year as he did in his rookie year: 3.

According to the numbers, Bell doesn’t look all that bad. On the contrary, he looks like a breakout player. That’s precisely what he is.

In Denver, the old running-back-by-committee system is used. As you probably know, this is not a good experience for most fantasy football owners. It’s one of the most dreaded parts of fantasy football when a team reverts to handing the ball off ten times each to three different players.

That is what happens in Denver. Bell now has an average of 9.6 carries a game.

If you notice the statistics mentioned in the “Performance” section, a single stat seems to stick out when reviewing the numbers on Bell: his yards per carry. I included that statistic for every game because that is the number that matters when it comes to running back committees.

Bell is a high risk, high reward type of player. When he gets handed the ball, everyone watching holds their breath because they want to see what he’s going to do. He is a flat-out explosive play maker.

But what’s his fantasy value? That’s a tough one.

Bell will consistently get his 10-15 carries a game, and he will continue to break out big runs, which is what you’re looking for if you have him on your team.

This week I do not believe he is a good start. Playing against a solid Giants defense that had an impressive defensive stat line vs. Dallas last week, I don’t expect Bell to have very good numbers. The longest run that the Giants gave up last Sunday was only 12 yards, and the longest they have given up all year was 62 yards (but this was by LaDainian Tomlinson). Besides the run by LT, the next-longest run they have given up this season was a 22-yarder, also in the San Diego game. Bell will score points when he breaks a big run, but I don’t expect him to do so this week in New York.

According to NFL.com, Bell was drafted in 95% of all leagues and is currently owned in 98%. In other words, your chances of picking him up as a free agent are not good.

But there is that rare diamond in the rough. In fact, I am in a league where I found Bell was available, and I grabbed him. If you can find him on your waiver wire, don’t wait another moment: add him now.

But what does all this mean to you if he’s not on your waiver wire? Just this: you should go and get Tatum Bell. Especially if you are struggling at the RB position, send out a trade offer. What do you trade? I think you could get him for a solid wide receiver or a stud tight end. I think he’s worth it if you need running back help.

The bottom line is that Bell is most likely going continue to score fantasy football points.

Just one warning: If you have Bell, watch the running back situation in Denver closely.

Prediction: Tatum Bell will finish the year with 164 carries, 1076 yards, and 10 Touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards a carry.

Start or Bench: Week 7 at New York Giants – Bench Week 8 vs. Philadelphia- Start Week 9 – Bye Week Week 10 at Oakland – Start Week 11 vs. New York Jets – Start Week 12 at Dallas – Bench Week 13 at Kansas City – Start Week 14 vs. Baltimore – Start Week 15 at Buffalo – Start Week 16 vs. Oakland – Bench Week 17 at San Diego – Bench

(The underline indicates the best and worst Starts & Benches)

The Mailbox:

The newest addition to the Focus column is the Mailbox. If you would like to participate in next week’s mailbox, have a comment about the article, or would like to suggest the topic of next week’s focus article, just PM Daniel here.

Q: Is the Denver running game successful because of the system or is it the talent at RB? – 1crzydmnd

A: I believe that the success in Denver ultimately stems from the running back talent. The staff has done a wonderful job of drafting and signing great players throughout the years. Clinton Portis is a great example. Although not scoring as many touchdowns now in Washington, he is still able to rack up many yards, a result of his talent. As you can see in the article, Bell has likewise displayed incredibe talent throughout his career. Other running backs such as Rueben Droughns, Mike Anderson, and Ron Dayne have also shown their talent. Of course the offensive line and Mike Shanahan’s system in particular have an impact as well, but overall the running back capability has made the running game in Denver so successful.

Q: Given the dramatic shift in the Denver running philosophy over this season of using more than one back consistently, do you think that running back by committee is a permanent change in coach Shanahan’s game plan, or is it a personnel decision? – skibrett15

A: I believe this is a permanent change to the game plan. So far this year, there are two players (Bell and Anderson) who have more than 55 carries. Last year, three players (Droughns, Bell, and Griffin) all had 75 or more carries. This has become a fundamental part of the Denver offense, and as I mentioned in the article, Bell will continue to share carries with Anderson. But Anderson is injury-prone and in his sixth year in the NFL. Bell has fresher legs and a fresher body. I expect to see Bell get more and more carries as the year progresses. If Anderson goes out for good with an injury, Bell will get the bulk of the carries, with Dayne probably getting about 8-12 a game.

Q: Do you think Mike Shanahan eats giant blocks of cheese instead of real meals? – BrutallyHuge

A: No, I do not … If he does, he is certainly in better shape than most people would be with that diet.

Daniel Gilford is a hardworking Communications major at St. Petersburg College. Recently, Daniel became a member of the Cafe’s response team, and when he is neglecting his college work, you’ll find him posting under the name danleroi22 in the forums. Daniel also enjoys taking an active role in the Cafe’s Trivia Blitz, and currently tops the standings.

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