Strategy

November 23, 2005

Injuries, Busts, and TO’s Suspension
Finding a method in all this madness

Here we are approaching week 12, and the hunt for the playoffs is coming to a head. But injuries, busts, suspensions, and other issues may have left your fantasy squad in shambles, leaving your team with a tough fight to reach the postseason.

In this critical time of the season it’s important that each owner be able to gather his or her troops and make that final push. In this article, I’m going to give you a rundown of the gaps that have undoubtedly been formed by the players who are dropping like flies, and I’ll also tell you how you can best capitalize on the mishaps. So without further oration, let’s dive into some sticky situations…

Injuries

Priest Holmes (RB, KC) – Out for the season with neck/spinal injury.

If you don’t know that Priest Holmes is out for the season:

A. You don’t have him on your team. Or…
B. You shouldn’t be playing fantasy football.

The loss of Holmes has been significant, as many owners took the Priest with their first choice in the draft. We talked about it a lot before the draft. The buzz was high. We hope you listened. It was highly recommended that if you did end up with Holmes in your draft, you also took Larry Johnson with one of your selections. If you are a Holmes owner and you have Larry Johnson, thank your lucky stars. If you don’t have him, you are in a mess now. This is the main reason many recommend that you handcuff your studs.

The Benefactors

Larry Johnson (RB, KC)

This couldn’t be more obvious. With Holmes out for the season, Johnson will be running all over the opposing defenses, and if you want my honest opinion, I believe Johnson is a better running back than Holmes in the first place.

If you were one of those owners who drafted Johnson and have held on to him all this time, your patience has indeed paid off. Johnson will be your fantasy stud from now on.

If you don’t have Johnson, chances are good that it is way too late to pull the trigger on trying to trade for him. Sorry, but that’s the truth. If you trade for Johnson right now, you’re going to buy high, not a good option. You’ll just have to wait until next year. But there is still hope. Check out the next benefactor…

Tony Gonzalez (TE, KC)

This may come as a surprise, but I recommend that you go trade for Tony if you don’t have him … and I think you should trade now, especially with the trading deadline very close (if it has not already passed).

His value is relatively low in most leagues, due to his lack of touchdown production this year, but I think that you’ll want to own him as you go for a playoff push.

With the loss of Priest, the Chiefs are going to be throwing a bit more and Tony Gonzalez is the guy who will gain the most from this. In week 10, Tony caught eight passes for 81 yards. In week 11, Tony caught nine balls for 98 yards. I actually expect those numbers to go up as the season progresses, and I also believe he will start to catch some more touchdowns since the team no longer has the reliable Priest to turn to on the goal line.

Donovan McNabb (QB, Phi) – Out for the season with a sports hernia/groin.

If you have Donovan McNabb, you are not in very good shape right now. The loss of Terrell Owens, and the quarterback’s recent injury have more than likely left your team in the gutter.

I have also seen the devastating effects of his loss. In one of my leagues, we had a team with McNabb and Owens. The owner won five of his first six games because of the duo, but has since lost three of his last four because of the fallout. If you have McNabb, you are in a world of hurt. As for Owens … we’ll get to him later on.

Things do look bad for McNabb owners, Eagles fans, and the Eagles in general, but let’s not jump out of the ship too fast … there is one person who will likely benefit from McNabb’s departure, and if you have him on your team you should, too.

The Benefactor

Brian Westbrook (RB, Phi)

With McNabb gone, I’m looking for Westbrook to improve in the running game. Without a great passing attack, The Eagles will most likely try to run the ball a little more, and try to control the clock, giving Mike McMahon a chance to run a balanced offense.

But in week 11, Westbrook received the same amount of carries as he did in the previous weeks. Does this mean his production will still be low following McNabb’s injury? I doubt it. Although the loss of McNabb means less passes his way, I think the Eagles will be forced to give him the ball more, if only to give McMahon a breather.

Stick with Westbrook and ultimately he should benefit from the loss of McNabb.

Corey Dillon (RB, NE) – Out for who knows how long…

Here we are again, looking at the same player we’ve looked at all year long. Is he out? Is he going to play? What’s the news on Dillon?

So many people got burned when it was hinted that Dillon would start, and then Bill Belichick yanked him from the lineup. How long will we have to put up with the New England injury secrecy? How long will fantasy owners suffer through it?

I’m not sure. But one thing I do know for sure is that one player in particular has taken advantage of Dillon’s injury.

The Benefactor

Heath Evans (RB, NE)

If you don’t know who I am going to talk about, you should. Cut by Miami earlier in the season, Heath Evans has come back with a vengeance, and has literally taken over the Patriots starting running back role until Dillon gets healthy.

We don’t know when Dillon will be back, but we do know that until that day comes, Evans is a great fantasy football play. He’s getting over 15 carries a game without Dillon, and with those kinds of numbers he’s bound to find the end zone eventually.

His benefit is your benefit. If you need a handcuff for Dillon, grab Heath Evans.

Busts

Marcel Shipp (RB, Ari)

For a starting running back, this guy has been doing horribly. Carrying the ball 109 times this season, he’s only managed to pick up a measly 274 yards, just 2.5 yards a carry. Not to mention he’s not scored a single touchdown all year.

Although most people didn’t think of Shipp as a breakout guy, I’m sure some thought that he might be a decent scorer. Not so. If you had Shipp at one point (I’m part of this group), you probably have already cut him (I’m also part of this group).

With the strange decision by Dennis Green to start Kurt Warner over Josh McCown, Green also hurt Shipp’s chances in Arizona to put up decent numbers (considering the fact that Warner likes to throw … a lot).

Despite the fact that I question nearly every decision that Green makes … maybe … just maybe for once he’s made a good choice in giving more carries to JJ Arrington in the recent weeks.

The Benefactor

JJ Arrington (RB, Ari)

This man is hopefully going to be getting more and more carries as the year goes on.

Can any good thing (besides receivers and kickers) come out of Arizona? I hope Arrington will make us answer a rousounding “yes!”

With a 4.1 yard per carry game in week 11, and a second straight week with a touchdown, I see Arrington as a solid pickup in a league where you are struggling at the running back position. And chances are very good that he is a free agent in your league.

If Dennis Green uses any common sense … he should start getting Arrington more involved. If he doesn’t stop making calls that frankly don’t have very good logic, his team will continue to lose football games and he will probably be out of a job next year.

Jamal Lewis (RB, Bal)

You know very well if you are a Jamal Lewis owner that he is doing downright awful this year.

He is anything but consistent, he can’t seem to score, he has another Baltimore running back doing better than he is, he’s getting older, he’s coming off a year marred with injury, his offensive line isn’t doing its job, his glory days are behind him, his off-season was a legal nightmare, and he’s playing under a very poor quarterback and offense in general.

It could be worse couldn’t it? I don’t really think so. I have been tempted several times this year to simply drop Lewis and be done with it, but I just haven’t been able to bring myself to do it. That 2,000-yard season looks me in the face and tells me that Jamal is a stud.

There’s got to be a way to win here, somebody must be able to benefit from Lewis’ demise … but who?

The Benefactor

Chester Taylor – Bal

Look no further than Lewis’ backup. Recently, head coach Brian Billick announced that Jamal will start to share carries with the agile backup running back. The Ravens need some kind of spark to light their offense, and Taylor might be that spark.

Just last week (week 11) Jamal only received 13 carries while Chester Taylor got the ball handed to him 19 times. Lewis is averaging 2.2 yards a carry while Taylor is averaging 3.1. In addition, Taylor is catching the ball about five times a game, a helpful addition to a struggling passing game.

As the season progresses Taylor’s role in the offense, productivity, and value will increase.

Although it is very likely someone in your league owns Taylor, having him on your team is not a bad idea. If you have Jamal you’re going to want to go trade for Taylor, or just trade Lewis away. If you happen to be a lucky owner who can grab Taylor off the waiver wire, I would do so without hesitation. Chester Taylor will be a valuable asset as the season comes to a close.

Michael Clayton (WR, TB)

As expected, the Buccaneers passing attack has been a non-balanced one, with Tampa Bay quarterbacks throwing the ball mostly to a single receiver. Unfortunately, if you drafted or traded for Clayton, you have the wrong Tampa receiver.

With Brian Griese first and now, more recently, Chris Simms, the Bucs have continually thrown the ball to Joey Galloway … leaving Michael Clayton out of the picture. I’m sure by now many frustrated owners have dumped Clayton for someone like Chris Henry.

I too have been tempted to drop this disappointing player, but now with Chris Simms, Clayton may receive a few more looks … so I’m going to hang on to him for a while and see what he’s got.

But even if he improves, this supposed top 15 receiver will go down as a bust in 2005, so let’s take a look at the players who benefit.

The Benefactors

Joey Galloway (WR, TB)

I think this is quite obvbious … you don’t need a long write-up about how Galloway is doing well and Clayton is doing poorly. If you have either of them you know this.

The old man who played in Seattle and Dallas has a total of 51 catches for 862 yards and seven touchdowns: fantasy stud material. And that’s what Joey has become. If you have Galloway, he has certainly been a great boon for your fantasy team.

Carnell Williams (RB, TB)

Another big benefactor as well as a factor in Clayton’s decline is the Cadillac. When Gruden drafted the 5 foot 11 inch running back out of Auburn, he decided that a great deal of the team’s fate would be decided by Williams.

The stats tell the story … when Williams rushes for over 100 yards, Tampa Bay wins the game, and last week is no exception.

When the Bucs are focused on running the ball that means they will throw less. Clayton’s poor numbers are probably a result of Carnell’s success. If it isn’t broke … don’t fix it. As long as Cadillac is running well, why throw the ball?

Carnell Williams is undoubtedly the biggest winner in this entire situation. If you have him on your fantasy team, he should be a solid start each week, as well as an exceptional keeper.

Suspensions

Terrell Owens (WR, Phi)

As an Eagles fan (and a loyal one…) I ask myself why. Why? Why in the world did TO have to go and be a jerk? Why did he have to distance himself from the rest of the team? Why did he have to hire an agent who frankly has made his situation worse, not better? Why?

Every time I ask these questions, I get the same answer. “TO is just being TO.”

That’s right. That’s the way he is. The Eagles should have never traded for him in the first place. I believe he’s better off suspended if he can’t get along with the team. I congratulate Andy Reid for taking a stand.

But this article is about fantasy football, and chances are that some of the people reading this have TO on their roster … or had him on their roster.

If you’ve dropped TO, I’m not so sure that was a good move. Who knows? Crazier things have happened. We could see TO in an Eagles uniform again by the end of the year.

Although I don’t own TO in any of my leagues (I intentionally avoided drafting either him or McNabb because of the rough off-season), if I did have him and I didn’t currently have any drastic needs, I would hang onto him. Yes, he burns a roster spot… but he also could come back and play, and in your playoffs he could be a devastating force. It’s a long shot, but I think it’s worth it.

I might take some heat for saying this, but I believe there is still a chance, and I’m sticking to that belief, especially with McNabb out.

But enough about TO… let’s see who benefits from this suspension.

The Benefactor

Reggie Brown (WR, Phi)

Brown is the winner in this soap opera. Reggie Brown has taken advantage of TO’s attitude and made his presence felt on the field.

In the last three games without Owens, Brown has 11 catches for 197 yards and two touchdowns. With Owens out, Brown has become the consistent downfield threat.

If he is a free agent in your league, don’t hesitate to add him. With the Eagles’ season all but lost, they are going to get desperate and start throwing downfield a lot more. Brown is the guy that will be catching those throws … plus Brown and McMahon play well together.

Don’t wait, grab the man who benefits from TO’s whining.

Daniel Gilford is a hardworking Communications major at St. Petersburg College. When he is neglecting his college work, you’ll find him posting under the name danleroi22 in the forums. Along with writing and learning to create graphics for Café members, Daniel also enjoys taking an active role in the Cafe’s Trivia Blitz, and currently tops the standings.

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