Focus: Frank Gore
A weekly expository look at players who have momentum

Each week, Daniel Gilford reviews a player who has performed well recently. Daniel analyzes the player’s past performances, evaluates his present value, and projects his future significance as a fantasy football player. He also answers football questions in “The Mailbox.” This week Daniel took a different approach and let Cafe members decide the focus of this week’s column. Carrying the poll with 32% of all votes, San Francisco’s Frank Gore was chosen. This rookie running back may be playing for a faulty team, but as we’ll soon discover, the 49ers’ problems go deeper than their record, and Gore’s problems go even deeper.

Past

Frank Gore was simply a stunning player in his high school days. Setting rushing records left and right, Gore finished his senior high school year with 2,953 yards and 34 touchdowns. He was highly recruited by colleges and was the number 18 prospect in the entire nation for all running backs.

With the decision to attend Miami (Florida), Gore took a back seat in his freshman year. With only 562 yards for the season, Gore’s lack of production was a direct result of his role as backup to Clinton Portis. However, Gore was able to secure an average of 9.1 yards a carry as a freshman. In the following year Gore was ready to improve on his first season, but due to a knee injury and the surgery that followed, he was unable to take the field, and the NCAA awarded him a redshirt.

In his third year (considered his sophomore year), Gore once again took to the field, but was once again held back by injuries. Another knee injury ended his season, but before this setback he was able to do very well. He scored four touchdowns in five games that year, racking up 562 yards and 5.3 yards per carry.

In his final years with the Hurricanes, Gore was finally able to stay on the field and start 11 games. In these games he gained 945 yards and scored eight touchdowns. He also averaged a nifty 4.8 yards a carry.

Despite his constant recurring knee injury, he was chosen with the first pick of the third round by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2005 draft.

Performance

With the beginning of the season, San Francisco head coach Mike Nolan had not yet decided on a starting quarterback. With their selection of Alex Smith with the first overall pick, it was believed that Smith would eventually start in place of Tim Rattay. What nobody saw coming was that the 49ers would trade away Rattay to the Buccaneers and commit to starting Smith for the rest of year.

A dramatic shift for a team … could it be because of their record?

At 1-5, the 49ers are in my opinion the worst team in the NFL. They need to change in a hurry. That’s why they got rid of Rattay. They need change. They need young blood. But how does Gore figure into this?

Nolan changed the quarterback in a hurry, so why not the running back, too? With the fresh legs of Gore, the 49ers could find a new burst to their offense. One which they desperately need.

Kevan Barlow certainly holds the starting job right now, but the focus may be shifting. Gore has been steadily fed more and more carries each week, with nine as the high-water mark last week.

This may not seem like a lot, but notice the following stat: on 34 carries this year, Gore is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt.

But the only real game Gore had impact in was last week against Washington. Playing against the 15th-rated run defense in the NFL, Gore was able to get 89 yards on nine carries and score a touchdown. His biggest run went for a whopping 72 yards. It seems we have another breakout runner in Gore.

Potential

Just like I wrote about Tatum Bell last week, as a breakout runner Gore has high risk, yet high reward.

Yet with Barlow still in the mix, I don’t see Gore with very much value in the near future.

The bottom line is that he is only going to score for your fantasy team when he gets at least a steady ten carries a game or more. That is something we haven’t seen yet.

If you have him on your team as a bye-week filler this week … it’s not a good idea. The Buccaneers are the very best run defense in the NFL, and you definitely want to sit Gore this week. My experimental running back stat predictor suggests that he will only get three carries against Tampa Bay for a total of -2 yards. It’s not a good idea to start him this week.

In fact, I’m going to recommend that you sit Gore until either Barlow gets injured or Gore wins the starting job outright (the only exception is the final week vs. Houston). Don’t start him till then. In the “Start/Bench” box below, I have only suggested several games in which to start him if you are absolutely desperate.

So where can we find Gore’s fantasy value? He is valuable in a keeper or a dynasty league. If you are in one of these two types of leagues, hang on to him. In the years to come, with the 49ers becoming committed to the younger players, I think Gore will become a great fantasy player.

A word of warning: Although so far this year we haven’t heard anything of Gore’s knee, I think it is a good possibility that he could re-injure it given his history. Keep a careful eye on this if you have him on your roster.

Prediction: I think Frank Gore will finish the year with 513 yards and three touchdowns.

(The underline indicates the best and worst Starts & Benches)

The Mailbox:

The newest addition to the Focus column is the Mailbox. If you would like to participate in next week’s mailbox, have a comment about the article, or would like to suggest the topic of next week’s focus article, just PM Daniel here.

Q: How well is Gore learning the offense and blitz assignments? Due to his learning disability, this is the thing that I would be the most concerned about. - Cornbread Maxwell

A: So far there are no reports on how well Gore is learning the plays. I searched high and low, but it seems that no one except the San Francisco coaching staff has the answer. But looking at his play, I would think that Gore might be struggling a bit. He only has one run over 11 yards all year, and this could be a direct result of his learning problems. His wonderlic score of six isn’t very impressive and it worries me a bit, but in the years to come I don’t think it will be a problem. This year it may be affecting him though, and it’s just another reason I plead with fantasy owners not to start him this season.

Q: With Barlow’s ineffectiveness, when can we expect Gore to get the full workload? – dave416

A: I don’t think Gore will win the starting job anytime soon. He has really only had one big run all year, and is pretty much just as ineffective right now as Barlow. I think that youth will eventually force Mike Nolan’s hand and give Gore that starting job, but I believe that is still a year down the road. Right now, grab him for your keeper league and sit on him until next year when he should do fairly well.

Q: San Francisco plays Houston the last game of the year (ironically), do you think San Francisco will spoil the chances of having the first ever 0-16 team? – Alkaholik

A: Providing that the Texans are 0-15 when they play against Houston in Week 17, I do think that their chances will be spoiled. I believe with all my heart (and the stats agree) that the 49ers are the worst team in football. I actually think that while Houston could certainly use an improved offensive line and defense, the rest of their offense seems to be effective. In week 17 the offense will likely win the game for the Texans. This will assure that Houston will not have a winless record.

Daniel Gilford is a hardworking Communications major at St. Petersburg College. When he is neglecting his college work, you’ll find him posting under the name danleroi22 in the forums. Daniel also enjoys taking an active role in the Cafe’s Trivia Blitz, and currently tops the standings.