Focus: Matt Jones
A weekly expository look at players who have momentum

Each week, Daniel Gilford reviews a player who has performed well recently. Daniel analyzes the player’s past performances, evaluates his present value, and projects his future significance as a fantasy football player. He also answers football questions in “The Mailbox.” Matt Jones is the focus of this week’s article, as two stunning performances from the young receiver have drawn our attention to him. Can the kid win a starting role? Is he worth a fantasy start?

Past

Matt Jones was believed to be one of the best all-round athletes available in the 2005 draft.

Playing quarterback in high school at Northside (in Arkansas), Jones was able to rack up 830 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns as a senior. In addition, Jones’ rushing skills were evident, as he was able to pick 939 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground in his final year of high school.

Being recruited by his home state college (Arkansas), Jones played both football and basketball for the Razorbacks, picking up 8392 total offensive yards in his college football career, and added 77 touchdowns. With numbers like these he was able to break nearly every school record.

Recognized as an extremely talented individual, Jones was drafted 21st overall in the 2005 NFL draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Performance

Drafted as a wide receiver, Jones quickly assumed that role in a young offense with a talented quarterback. With Byron Leftwich at the helm, this offense seemed destined to achieve something great in 2005.

Despite having a very good pre-season, Jones struggled at the beginning of the year.

Jones’ talent was not initially evident in Jacksonville, and in the first three games of the season he caught only 7 catches for 62 yards and no touchdowns.

In week 4 Jones had a similar lack of success, and he was able to haul in only three catches for 27 yards. He was also unable to score that week.

Then week 6 came around… and so did Jones’ play. Against the Steelers Jones was able to make two grabs for 20 yards plus a score.

After their bye week Jones again made his presence known. Last week Jones caught four balls for 38 yards and he again found the endzone.

The Jaguars have a strategy that they like to use. With Jones’ height and size (6’6” and 242 pounds) he can virtually out jump and out muscle any corner in the league. With this advantage the Jaguars have been throwing to him in the critical third down situations, with nine of his 16 catches coming on third down.

In addition, when the Jaguars find themselves in a hole and they need to throw a Hail Mary pass, they’re going to be throwing it to Matt Jones.

Potential

As a fantasy player Jones has significant value. His all-round athleticism could lead he Jaguars to line him up in many different situations, and if Leftwich got hurt I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jones take his place.

The biggest factor that gives Jones value is his size. With his height, weight, and speed he poses a huge problem to every defensive player in the league.

Over the past few week Jones has been getting more and more looks.

The stats show that Jones will get his hands on the ball whenever the Jaguars are behind. In fact, 11 of his 16 catches have come when Jacksonville is trailing in the game. Why? Because he’s the go-to receiver when the Jaguars are in a fix.

But what does all of this mean? Here’s the answer…

Bottom line: When the Jaguars are going to throw the ball to Matt Jones more when they are facing an explosive offense or a very tough defense. They’re going to just chuck it up there and hope he comes down with the football in the critical situations.

There you have it. The above statement is Jones’ value. When Jones is playing a team with a great offense or great defense, he makes a good start.

This week vs. Houston is not a good time to play Jones. I think that the Jaguars will play excellent defense against a poor offense and be able to score enough to keep well ahead of the Texans. This is not an ideal place to start Jones.

If you need a bye-week filler Jones will only be good on certain weeks. Be careful which weeks you choose to play him. The box below reveals my opinion of what the best weeks to start him are.

Don’t bother with Jones if you are already stacked at the receiver position. Jones is a risky play and should only be started when you absolutely need a wide receiver to fill a gap.

Prediction: I believe Matt Jones will finish the year with 52 catches for 580 yards and five touchdowns.

Start or Bench: Week 9 vs. Houston – Bench Week 10 vs. Baltimore – Bench Week 11 at Tennessee – Start Week 12 at Arizona – Bench Week 13 at Cleveland – Bench Week 14 vs. Indianapolis – Start Week 15 vs. San Francisco – Bench Week 16 at Houston – Bench Week 17 vs. Tennessee – Start

(The underline indicates the best and worst Starts & Benches)

The Mailbox:

The newest addition to the Focus column is the Mailbox. If you would like to participate in next week’s mailbox, have a comment about the article, or would like to suggest the topic of next week’s focus article, just PM Daniel here.

Q: With all the hype about Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, isn’t it interesting that Ernest Wilford emerged in week 8 as the go-to #2 target in the Jacksonville offense? With Williams injured, Wilford (not Jones) has worked with the first team offense this week. Has one catch turned us all into a bunch of saps?- The Dude

A: That is the danger you have to be careful of with Matt Jones. Right now the only thing we know is that Jones is picking up the big plays on third downs and when the Jaguars are losing. Wilford will likely get the starting job, and with Reggie Williams being banged up (but soon to return) I see Jones as the third receiver for a while. I don’t expect this to change, that’s why I recommend that you start him in only very specific situations.

Q: Who you think will be more of an impact for my fantasy squad between Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford? – jayday

A: In the long run Jones will be the most effective, but in the short run (the rest of this year) Wilford will produce more. A start8ing role will always give a player more effectiveness and looks, and with Wilford’s emergence I think Jones will take a secondary role. Wilford shouldn’t even be available at this point in any leagues, because he is going to be that productive.

Daniel Gilford is a hardworking Communications major at St. Petersburg College. When he is neglecting his college work, you’ll find him posting under the name danleroi22 in the forums. Daniel also enjoys taking an active role in the Cafe’s Trivia Blitz, and currently tops the standings.

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