Keepers for the 2005 NFL Season: NFC North

We’ve broken down the teams in the AFC East and West, and assessed the keeper league value of each team’s core of skill position players. Let’s cut it back against the grain this week, switch over to the NFC, and see what the division formerly known as the “Black & Blue” has to offer fantasy franchise owners. But first, a brief overview.

The Green Bay Packers were soundly beaten by the Norsemen of Minnesota on their own legendary Lambeau Field in the playoffs. But even more alarming than the Pack’s lackluster performance which led to their “one and done” post-season was the play of Brett Favre. His poor games aren’t just blips on the screen anymore, they are occurring with a troubling and increasing frequency. The Vikings in turn have Daunte Culpepper, a quarterback just entering his prime, and possess a potent running attack that even they seemingly underestimate from time to time. However, issues that arguably date back to the Herschel Walker trade/fiasco continue to haunt the team: particularly a definite lack of D.

The Bears could have a franchise QB in Rex Grossman, who started to show flashes of playmaking ability until he suffered a serious knee injury. That injury, however, could have him sidelined through training camp and maybe even beyond. That’s a situation that demands a close eye. The team has a potentially dominant nucleus of defensive players, but the value of the Bears’ skill position players will ride upon the shoulders of… of… whoever the heck’s under center. The Lions were a better team than their record would indicate, and they too have a QB situation that warrants monitoring. Is Joey Harrington capable of leading a potentially loaded offense to a post-season berth? That remains to be seen, but should the Lions’ 2002 first-round draft pick fall flat again next season there’ll be no excuses; the Lions have a solid O-line, playmaking pass-catchers, and a potential top five running back in rookie Kevin Jones.

And with that microanalysis, on to the breakdown!

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

This Vikings started the ‘04 season off with a roar, winning five of their first six contests. They finished the season with a whimper however, backing into a playoff berth on an 8-8 record. They did however prove their mettle with a first round thrashing of the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. Over the years the Vikings have had the offensive pieces in place with QBs Tommy Kramer, Randall Cunningham and Warren Moon, WRs such as Cris Carter, Anthony Carter and Randy “full moon” Moss, and RBs Robert Smith, Moe Williams and Michael Bennett. And yet every season has ended in bitter disappointment for the same reason: defensive shortcomings. And this season will prove no different. The team has perennial Pro-Bowlers at the QB and WR positions, and great depth at running back. The attempt to improve the D over the last off-season wasn’t as successful as head coach Mike Tice would have liked. The addition of shut-down CB Antoine Winfield has improved the secondary a bit, but the league’s new rules benefitting WRs render cover CBs almost powerless. Thus, a guy like Winfield is reduced to a tackling machine. The team’s LBs, while young, are mistake-prone and possess poor tackling skills. This team will go only as far as its sub-par D will take it.

QB Daunte Culpepper
4 STARS; 4,717 yards, 41 TDs (2 rushing), 11 INTs
Culpepper, drafted in the highly-touted and ultimately disappointing QB class of ‘99, is the Vikings’ unquestioned leader and engine. Where he goes, so go the Vikes. Having cut down dramatically upon his turnovers, C-Pepp, built like a defensive end, is the league’s second most dangerous QB as Colt Peyton Manning sets the current bar for passing excellence. Culpepper cannot, however, do it all by himself. It’s unreasonable to ask any QB to singlehandedly carry a team, and Culpepper is constantly forced to play catch-up as the team’s defense remains it’s Achilles’ heel. Nevertheless, Culpepper enjoyed a bevy of multiple-TD games and with the skilled wideouts and pass-catching backs at his disposal, is nearly the fantasy equal of Manning. If you should allow Culpepper to return to the draft … you have no business playing fantasy football.

RB Onterrio Smith
2 1/2 STARS; 544 yards, 4 TDs (2 Rec.), 394 yards rec.
Smith is just part of the many-headed monster that is the Vikings’ running game. What Vikings Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan has done with the team’s stable of RBs has been nothing short of amazing. When Bennett went down with yet another injury, Onterrio Smith grabbed the reins and stepped up; when Smith was suspended by the league for four games for substance abuse, rookie Mewelde Moore assumed the feature back duties; when the Vikes need a goal-line back, they turn to short-yardage specialist Moe Williams … get the point? The Denver Broncos have been lauded as being a back factory, yet what the Vikings have accomplished is equally extraordinary. Smith’s value is somewhat diminished due to the apparent love affair head coach Mike Tice has with speedy, yet injury-prone Michael Bennett. And with that caveat, if you do own Smith, predicated upon the depth of your team, keeping him may well prove to be a shrewd move. He’s proven himself capable of assuming a three-down role, and with Bennett’s injury history, it’s a safe bet that Smith will factor into the RB equation at some point next season. In addition, Smith is averaging nearly 11 yards per reception and is as dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield as he is taking the pitch from Culpepper.

RB Michael Bennett
3 STARS; 276 yards, 2 TDs (1 Rec.), 233 yards rec.
After some experimentation and a lengthy stint on the DL, Bennett has again moved out of Tice’s rather spacious doghouse and is back in his coach’s good graces. A collegiate track star, Bennett has great speed and much like Jaguars RB Fred Taylor, can score from virtually anywhere on the field on virtually any play. The issue with Bennett is what it’s always been; he’s simply injury-prone and lacks 300-tote toughness.

RB Moe Williams
2 1/2 STARS; 161 yards, 4 TDs (1 Rec.), 233 yards rec.
Williams is the team’s goal-line and short-yardage specialist. If you own any of the other Viking RBs you just hate this guy because he’s a TD vulture. Even with the depth the Vikes have at his position, Williams retains value because Tice trusts him not to fumble in crucial situations.

WR Randy Moss
4 STARS; 767 yards, 49 Rec., 13 TDs
Wow. What can be said that hasn’t been already? Randy’s selfish; he’s a “me-first” player; he makes foolish mistakes; he takes plays off; he doesn’t ever play all-out; he’s a risk. Enough? Randy also remains fantasy football’s most dangerous WR, and maybe its most valuable player at any position. And, since fantasy owners don’t personally contend with his foolishness, Moss is an unquestioned keeper. Whether you respect him as a player and person doesn’t really matter, Moss will help you win your league championship, and that’s all this is really about.

WR Nate Burleson
4 STARS; 1,006 yards, 68 Rec., 10 TDs (1 return for TD)
When Moss went down with a bum hammy, Burleson became the Vikings’ go-to receiver, and what a job he did! With a tall, vertical threat in WR Marcus Robinson lining up opposite him, opponents couldn’t really afford to double-team “Nate the Great” and it cost them. With Moss understandably garnering most of the opposing secondary’s attention, Burleson will again prove to be a hot and valuable fantasy commodity next season.

Keep an eye on the Vikings’ running back roller coaster. If they should elect to move a back through a trade in order to bolster the D, it could very well be rookie Mewelde Moore. He too proved capable of assuming a three-down role and might be a dark horse fantasy candidate. The issue that might hinder his value is the huge number of productive backs hitting the free agent market this off-season, in conjunction with several very good RBs coming out of college in this year’s draft. In addition, WR Marcus Robinson might have some limited draft value in deeper leagues, and TE/H-back Jermaine Wiggins notched 71 receptions, 705 yards, and four TDs while proving himself capable of being more than just a safety valve.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have lost much of their mystique. Favre, aging, has proven himself to be both human and fallible. His poor games are occurring with alarming frequency, and he has again brought up the dreaded “R-word”: retirement. Facing painful obstacles such as his wife and best friend’s battle against breast cancer, his father passing away at a relatively young age from a heart attack, and a life-long battle against substance abuse that fans may have forgotten about but will remain an issue for Brett as it does all those forced to contend with such demons, what’s left for Favre to prove as a football player? In addition to the Pack’s QB quandary, RB Ahman Green was banged up all season and may be starting to slow down, the secondary is as watertight as a colander, the team’s run defense is poor, the team’s tackling skills are weak, the D-line and LBs were unable to generate much of a pass rush this season … hold on, let me catch my breath. The Packer franchise is at a cross-roads, and they will be forced to address these issues, and others, in the off-season. The adjustments they make, and how they go about them, will affect the team for far longer than just next season.

QB Brett Favre
3 STARS; 4,088 yards, 30 TDs, 17 INTs
Retirement, poor games, on and off-field issues, and increasing hints of grey hair aside, Favre remains football’s fiercest competitor, still seems to be enjoying the game, and so long as he’s upright, the Pack should never be counted out of any game. Favre’s play may have entered a slight decline over the second half of this season, but he remains a very productive fantasy QB. The bottom line for his owners ise his 30 TDs, and an excellent corps of pass-catchers who’d run through a brick wall for him if need be. Keep Brett for another season as his risk-reward ratio is nominal.

RB Ahman Green
2 1/2 STARS; 1,163 yards, 8 TDs (1 Rec.), 275 yards rec.
This guy’s a riddle wrapped in a mystery wound around a question mark. Are his nagging injuries a portent of things to come? If you look at Green’s numbers, they’re quite sound for a #1-2 fantasy back. And given that the Pack play outdoors and Green’s a big back and a hassle to tackle in five-degree weather, depending upon your roster and RB depth, Green is worth keeping for another season. Here’s the plan: if Green’s level of play appears poor early next season, trade him to an owner who lacks RB depth or who’s suffered skill position injuries and will be willing to take a gamble on Green.

WR Javon Walker
4 STARS; 1,382 yards, 89 Rec., 12 TDs
Walker, a third-year receiver, started to come on strong towards the end of last season. Fantasy owners who picked up on his improving play and made certain to draft him this year were well rewarded. With strong hands and great leaping ability Walker, can out-jump most cornerbacks and can make the difficult catch, especially along the sideline. He’ll occasionally drop a catchable ball, but the long hours Walker spent working on his route running and pass-catching skills manifested themselves in this season’s break-out play. Walker proved to be such a lethal vertical threat that opponents double-teamed him and left fellow wideout Donald Driver virtually uncovered.

WR Donald Driver
3 STARS; 1,208 yards, 84 Rec., 9 TDs
Walker’s tremendous season led to a great campaign for Donald Driver, who also possesses good speed and a reliable pair of hands. Walker made it impossible for opposing Ds to capably cover both pass-catchers, and that afforded Driver the opportunity to really shine over the second half of the season. Expect Driver to improve on this season’s numbers and prove himself worthy of being a true #2 fantasy wideout.

Although Grade-A sized RB Najeh Davenport averaged over five yards per touch, he received only 71 carries, reached the end zone only twice, and should even be available via your league’s wire. No other Pack skill position player is worthy of keeper consideration … except maybe one, TE Bubba Franks. Generally speaking, TEs are not worth assigning keeper slots to, as productive ones are always available through the draft and off of the waiver wire. Antonio Gates, for instance, is a TE who was available to virtually any owner had they dashed to their computer keyboards fast enough one Sunday early this past fall. Having been somewhat of a disappoinment up until this season, Franks recorded seven TDs on 34 grabs for 361 yards and finally emerged as the red-zone threat and pass-catching weapon the team thought they were drafting back in 2000. If your fantasy roster is thin, Franks earned QB Brett Favre’s confidence this past season and might actually improve upon his numbers next season.

Detroit Lions

The Lions, consistently the divvy’s doormat, demonstrated some modest improvement on the offensive side of the ball. However, the team is still uncertain as to whether or not QB Joey Harrington is capable of being the franchise’s passer, and did former first-round pick WR Charles Rogers not receive enough calcium as a kid? This will be the fifth consecutive year that the team has not qualified for the post-season, and the team faces substantial front-office issues. Matt Millen hasn’t made many friends with his five-day, 9-5 work week and questionable draft day decisions; although some of the youngsters, particularly the ‘04 picks, are starting to develop. And, there are still cracks running through the defense, particularly at the safety positions. The Lions were a better team than their 6-10 record might indicate, but competing with the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings would prove to be a tall order for any team. The upcoming season will be a make-or-break campaign for a number of Lions, especially Rogers and Harrington, and there will be no excuses for not competing. As patient as the team-owning Ford family has been, they will, quite rightfully, demand to see some on-field improvement and progress towards providing the Pack and Vikes with a measure of competition. The team will seek to further strengthen the D in the off-season, will tweak their brand of West Coast Offense in yet another in a series of attempts to tailor the scheme to Harrington’s strengths, and the Lions will probably try and secure another playmaking pass-catcher as there are legitimate questions as to whether or not Charles Rogers can stand up to the rigors of the NFL.

QB Joey Harrington
1 1/2 STARS; 3,047 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs
Harrington’s is really a short story: thus far he’s disappointed. And although he’s shown flashes of playmaking ability, Harrington will lock onto a receiver and tends to hurry through his reads for fear of getting popped in the chops. And, having been sacked 36 times in 16 games, it’s easy to understand Harrington’s skittishness. Although there are fantasy starters and even keepers on the Lion offense, Harrington isn’t one of them. In fact, unless you belong to a really deep league, this erratic QB should be available off of the waiver wire.

RB Kevin Jones
3 1/2 STARS; 1,133 yards, 6 TDs (1 Rec.), 180 yards rec.
Even with teams stacking the box in order to stop the rookie, Jones racked up an impressive 1,300 combined yards and six TDs. Hypothetically, if the Lion passing game steps up (Ummhmm, Joey Harrington) and poses a legit’ threat to opponent’s Ds next season, Jones’ already high value will skyrocket. Having stud FB Corey Schlesinger blast holes through the opposing D-lines certainly helped Jones, but a significant number of his yards were acquired on his own. Jones provides the Lions with their first real ground attack since Barry hung ‘em up. Unless you have a trio of #1 fantasy players on your roster, Jones is absolutely worth keeping. For as valuable as he proved to be this season, another off-season of weight training and training camp, coupled with the development of WR Roy Williams and hopefully Charles Rogers, will render Kevin Jones a legitimate #1 fantasy back.

WR Roy Williams
3 STARS; 817 yards, 54 Rec., 8 TDs
A high ankle sprain hobbled the talented pass-catcher for the bulk of the season. Even hurt and with secondaries keying on him, Williams averaged over 15 yards per reception, hauled in eight TDs, and successfully prevented defenses from creeping up in order to stop fellow rook Kevin Jones. Williams started to get healthy towards season’s end, too late for the franchise to challenge for the division or wild card. Although his production and ultimately his fantasy value will ride upon the development of QB Joey Harrington, Roy Williams will still be a top 20 WR next season and warrants a keeper slot on your roster.

Although Az-Zahir Hakim averaged over 17 yards per grab, he only recorded three scores. Given the wideouts opposite him, he might be worth drafting in your league’s later rounds. If you happen to be playing “athlete Scrabble” however, Hakim’s first name will secure you close to 90 points, assuming you’re playing with two Zs and include 50 points for using all seven letters. And until such time as Charles Rogers proves he can stay healthy and work with the wide receivers coach as opposed to the physical therapist, he’ll be worthy of a fifth-round fantasy draft pick and not much more. No other Lion skill position players are worth wasting typing time upon.

Chicago Bears

QB Rex Grossman
1 STAR; 607 yards, 1 TD (rushing), 3 INTs
Due simply to the grit, moxie, and tools shown by Grossman during his limited on-field action, he makes this list. The Bears had a rotating cast of characters at the QB position all season: Grossman, Jonathan Quinn, Craig Krenzel and Chad Hutchinson. Grossman, if he can recover in time to start next season, offers the most (yet still limited) fantasy potential. Limited not due to a lack of ability, but limited due to the positively anemic wide receiving corps the Bears put on the field each week. No Bear pass catcher had more than two receiving TDs last season and that’s just shameful. Keep an eye on Grossman’s recovery, though. He might be worth using a draft pick on if you belong to a dynasty league, but will more than likely be available through your league’s waiver wire.

RB Thomas Jones
2 1/2 STARS; 948 yards, 7 TDs, 427 yards rec.
Thomas, drafted by Arizona in 2000, has bounced about the league a bit but finally seems to have found a home in Chicago. Due to the Bears’ largely fictitious passing attack, opposing safeties were able to creep up and support the run. In addition, the Bears almost constantly found themselves playing from behind and were forced to abandon the running game; both factors hampered Thomas’ effectiveness. Offering fantasy production both on the ground and catching the ball out of the backfield, if the Bears can develop a credible passing game Thomas should become a three-star back and will improve upon some very solid ‘04 numbers.

In short, there are NO… and I do mean NO, other Bear skill position players worth mentioning or drafting. See what the Bears do with their high first-round pick.

 
Jamey Feuer is the Children’s Librarian for a large New Jersey community. Often, parents will bring their little ones to his library with the primary motive of talking sports with Jamey.

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