Keepers for the 2005 NFL Season: NFC South

In the last installment of this series, our ongoing Fantasy Football Keeper Quest took us on a journey through the former ‘Black and Blue Division,’ from Minnesota’s cavernous Metrodome to Green Bay’s legendary and physically demanding Lambeau Field. This week, we’ll flee the numbing cold of the NFC North, and head to greener pastures and warmer climes as we break down the NFC South. But first, a few notes.

The NFC South has to be considered a disappointment this season having sent but a single emissary to the playoffs. That team was Atlanta, the only franchise that posted a winning record. In addition, where the NFC North boasted an embarrassment of fantasy riches, with a few notable exceptions fantasy studs were much scarcer in the South. An interesting distinction between the two divisions and one worthy of mention is the premium placed upon defense.

With the exception of the Chicago Bears, no other team in the North could have been accused of fielding an intimidating D. However, every defense in the South proved to be, at least occasionally, smothering. Even the Saints’ horrid squad showed signs of life over the season’s final quarter. The Falcons’ fearsome front foursome of Kerney, Coleman, Smith and Jasper were able to bring the rush like few other teams, and skilled linebackers Draft and Brooking made life miserable for opposing ball carriers. Carolina arguably had the most talented personnel. With disruptive young ends Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers, savvy linebackers Dan Morgan and Mark Fields, and a promising, young, ball-hawking secondary that includes Ricky Manning, Jr. and Chris Gamble (who tied for the NFC lead with seven interceptions), the future looks mighty bright for Panther fans. Lastly, Tampa Bay was able to sustain their long-standing reputation for fielding a punishing D. And while linebacker Derrick Brooks may have lost a step, his football IQ, instincts, and meticulous preparation allowed him to make several game-altering plays while elevating the level of play of his teammates. Thus, due to their better, more talented defenses, the teams of the South weren’t constantly pressed to out-score their opponents as the Vikings and Packers, for instance, were.

Reviewing some numbers will more graphically illustrate the differences between the divisions’ Ds. Allowing foes to score early and often, Minnesota’s defense was largely fictitious and surrendered the most points by far in the North, 395. The Pack weren’t too far back, ceding 380 points. The Lions allowed 350, and the Bears gave up the fewest points, 331.

On the other hand, with the exception of the New Orleans Saints who allowed a shameful 405 points, the teams of the NFC South held opponents to significantly lower totals. A very distant second to the ‘Aints were the 339 points allowed by the Panthers, followed by the Falcons’ 337. The Buccaneers proved to be the stingiest unit, allowing a mere 304 points scored, or an average of 19 points per game. The divisions proved to be polar opposites in many respects, and these differences were also reflected in the fantasy values of their players. So without further ado, let’s peer inside each franchise of the NFC South and take a look at their skill position performers.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Simply put, the Falcons boast the most exciting player in football, if not all of sports, QB Michael Vick. And due to Vick’s unconventional style and jaw-dropping athleticism, the Falcons are very difficult to scheme for and keep opposing defensive coordinators sleepless and swigging from bottles of Pepto-Bismol. In addition, the Falcons have a very effective ‘thunder and lightning’ running back combination in Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett, and a prototypical tight end in Alge Crumpler. The team made it to the NFC Championship game primarily due to Vick’s legs and a vastly improved defense, but lost, thanks to an essentially one-dimensional offense.

The team traded up to get WR Michael Jenkins with its first-round pick in last April’s draft, but with a grand total of seven receptions Jenkins has thus far been a pricey disappointment and must make some big strides next season. Far more impressive was fellow rookie DeAngelo Hall. With good speed, fluid hips and improving technique, ‘D-Hall’ could well be a factor, and perhaps even a top five cornerback for years to come. But even with their talented defense and deep running game, if the Falcons hope to ever win the NFC title game they must improve their below-average receiving corps. While TE Alge Crumpler has the speed to get downfield, can make the tough catch and is a nightmare to cover, the wide receivers the Falcons currently field each week are a collection of average possession types who don’t really scare anyone.

QB Michael Vick
3 STARS: 2,313 Yards (902 rushing yards), 17 TDs (3 Rushing), 12 INTs
Watching Vick play football is reminiscent of the scene from the classic film Rocky, where the plodding pugilist attempts to improve his speed and reaction time by catching a chicken with his bare hands. Every time Rocky thinks his prey is bottled up, the pesky poultry darts away and leaves the fighter grasping at air and gasping for breath. The Falcons’ QB is no less elusive a quarry, and much like Rocky’s chicken, Vick can make defenders look downright silly, often forcing them to the sidelines in search of an available oxygen mask. But the debate continues to rage: is Vick a quarterback, a running back, or simply a gifted athlete playing the QB position?

There are no easy answers, and assigning a fantasy value to Vick is almost as challenging as getting a hand on him. But as Vick’s owners can attest, at this stage of his career, he’s a better NFL QB than fantasy signal-caller. And for our purposes, that’s a crucial distinction. The value of MV7 as a fantasy/real QB is an entire article in and of itself, so let’s try to simplify things a bit. In no game did Vick throw for more than two scores, though he did have three three-TD games (with one rushing TD in each). Vick threw for a season-high of 258 yards in week 8. His next-highest passing total was 218 yards. There were three contests in which Vick threw for a paltry 115 yards, and the week 17 game against Seattle saw Vick rack up an awe-inspiring 35 passing yards. So for those of you who belong to yardage leagues, note that Vick averaged just 136 passing yards per game.

On the flip side of the coin, Vick did rush for 902 yards and had three 100-yard games. That’s the third-highest rushing total for a QB in league history, and Vick was the league’s 11th-ranked rusher. The truth is, Vick’s still maturing as a passer and learning the nuances of his position. And much like a great chef who’s been asked to whip up a four-star meal with canned vegetables and Spam (apologies to all Spam aficionados), Vick can do only so much with the ‘ingredients’ at his disposal. Keep an eye on Atlanta’s draft and free agent moves. While Vick’s three-star ranking for the upcoming ‘05 season is based more on potential than performance, he possesses uncanny vision, can throw a football through a brick wall, and the addition of a pass-catching play maker will (ok, should) appreciably bolster his fantasy numbers.

RB Warrick Dunn
2 1/2 STARS: 1,106 Yards, 9 TDs, 293 Yards Rec.
It’s interesting how misleading Dunn’s numbers are. For the most part, his best performances came against the league’s softest Ds. Dunn started off well, notching four TDs over the course of weeks 1 and 2. But he also had a five-game drought without a single score, recorded a mere three TDs over an 11-game span, and enjoyed only four 100+ yard rushing games. However, without a substantial passing game supporting him and with defenders keying upon the run, such numbers shouldn’t be surprising. I’m starting to sound like a broken record here but Dunn’s ‘05 value, as is true for all of the Falcons’ skill position players, rests upon the moves the front office makes during the off-season. If Atlanta can force defenders to at least consider the notion of the forward pass, then the running game will receive a bit more breathing room.

RB T.J Duckett
2 STARS: 509 Yards, 8 TDs
Playing thunder to Dunn’s lightning, Duckett’s numbers are no less misleading as half of his total TDs came in Week 14’s tilt against Oakland. Duckett racked up zero 100 yard rushing performances, and his highest single-game total was an unimpressive 65 yards. With Dunn currently entrenched as the team’s feature back, Duckett just won’t receive 20 totes per game. Nevertheless, Duckett is a load who seems to get stronger with each successive carry. He showed toughness and promise towards the end of the season, and is a solid goal-line option. Unless you’re in a very deep league, Duckett’s not worthy of assigning a keeper slot to. He is worthy of drafting, however (as a late-round pick), and his value might even rise if the team bolsters it’s receiving corps … something the Falcons are bound to do.

Given enough time, the bright minds of the NFL can find a way to solve virtually any problem. While the ‘Vick dilemma’ took a bit more time, it too was also solved … to some degree anyway. Defensive coordinators have discovered that if you can keep Vick inside the tackles his iffy ball security often leads to fumbles, and if he’s unable to get outside and turn the corner he can be brought down and sacked more easily. Vick needs to demonstrate a bit more patience and let his receivers run their routes. In turn, Atlanta desperately needs to add an experienced free agent wideout, or for young WR Michael Jenkins to step up and prove himself worthy of his high draft status. Former Buffalo Bills standout WR Peerless Price was signed to be ‘The Man,’ but a pair of unspectacular seasons have proven Price to be nothing more than an ordinary pass-catcher, if that.

To further complicate matters, the 53 receptions, 628 yards, and four TDs that fellow receivers Brian Finneran (who struggled with injuries all season) and Dez White combined for won’t exactly have opponents agonizing over game film. The lone receiving bright spot this past season was the team’s TE, Alge Crumpler. And while I rarely endorse using keeper slots on TEs, Crumpler’s six TDs and 774 receiving yards were the envy of many teams’ #2 wide receivers. Depending on the depth of your league and talent on your roster, Crumpler again projects to be a top four tight end.

New Orleans Saints

You know a franchise is floundering when finishing with a .500 record is reason to cheer. The team, which demonstrated poor discipline and set a franchise record for penalty yards assessed, reverted back to its ‘Aints’ persona for the first three quarters of the season. The team’s confluence of offensive talent flat-out underachieved, and to say that the offense started each game slowly would be gracious as the team scored two first-quarter TDs all season. QB Aaron Brooks, who continues to frustrate coaches and fans alike, must become more consistent and stop trying to get by on physical ability alone. And if the confounding QB play wasn’t enough to cause head coach Jim Haslett profound gastric distress, then the play of feature back Deuce McAllister was.

To be perfectly fair, Deuce couldn’t shake loose from the high ankle sprain he suffered during week 2. There were some questions about McAllister’s conditioning, however, and in an effort to assist the talented back in reaching his considerable potential the team brought Johnny Roland in to serve as the new running backs coach. Questions about McAllister’s commitment to the game date back to the day he was drafted and were the reason he fell 20 or so picks. Roland, who has coached such legends as Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton, would appear to have the proper credentials. And while the offense clearly had its problems, there’s also the perfectly ghastly Saints defense to consider.

Having surrendered over 400 points, the Saint D ranked dead last overall in 2004. The team did show some intestinal fortitude when, after starting 4-8, they reeled off four straight wins against solid competition (including drubbings of Dallas and Atlanta). Not coincidentally, the defense tightened up significantly at that point, far too late to make a difference of course, and held opponents to 15.3 points per game as opposed to the far more generous 28.7 points they surrendered during the first 12 games. The Saints must improve their secondary play and secure a play-making linebacker. If the team can do that, a talented offense should right itself and the franchise will again return to the playoff promised land; a place they haven’t seen for four consecutive years.

QB Aaron Brooks
3 STARS: 3,810 Yards, 25 TDs (4 rushing), 16 INTs
This could be a pivotal season for the mercurial QB as his offensive coordinator and chief cheerleader/apologist Mike McCarthy has departed. Along with McCarthy went most of the leeway afforded Brooks for his numerous mental errors and boneheaded plays. Brooks has an irritating penchant for handing the ball back to the opposition; he recorded turnovers in 11 of 16 games and multiple turnovers in six of those contests. Nonetheless, Brooks has very respectable fantasy value. Unafraid to leave the pocket, he tossed TD passes in all but one game and had multiple TDs in nine games last season. Accordingly, Brooks rates a keeper slot. Nevertheless, I’d be inclined to take a ‘wait and see’ approach with the Saint signal caller. If the new offensive coordinator opts to completely overhaul the team’s West Coast philosophy, and Brooks is forced to adjust to an entirely new system (which could well be the case), it could well put a damper on his ultimate fantasy value.

RB Deuce McAllister
3 STARS: 1,074 Yards (228 Rec.), 9 TDs
As stated above, Deuce’s ‘04 issues were twofold: an inability to surmount a high ankle sprain coupled with an inability to surmount his apparent contentment with mediocrity. Just to be clear, mediocrity for McAllister would constitute excellence for another, lesser back, and therein lies the source of the team’s frustration with the talented runner. For an athlete possessing ideal size, terrific speed and more moves than a Soul Train audition, Deuce hasn’t lived up to his considerable potential. Enter 26-year coaching veteran Johnny Roland. Having worked with a literal ‘who’s who’ of running backs, the team is comfortable in allowing Roland to put Deuce’s feet to the fire. Assuming the Saints commit themselves to the run, and play a more ball-control-oriented offensive style, the impact of Aaron Brooks’ inevitable turnovers will be diminished and McAllister could even approach 1,600 yards, with a shot at 12-15 TDs.

WR Joe Horn
3 STARS: 94 Rec., 1,399 Yards, 11 TDs
Horn is Brooks’ go-to receiver, and with receiving days that included a five-catch, 167-yard outing against the Chiefs (I know, KC’s D made everyone look good) and an eight-catch, 160-yard, two-TD explosion against the Panthers, it’s easy to understand such coziness. While Horn isn’t afraid to blow his own … well, horn, he is an excellent receiver, fantasy weapon, and rates a keeper slot. The emergence (at long last) of fellow receiver Donte Stallworth could benefit Horn by making it more difficult to double-team him, but Stallworth could pinch some receptions and TD opportunities as well. The team went vertical with regularity this past season, but much of that was due to the fact that they were frequently forced to play catch-up football. Hence, Horn was able to pad his numbers with lots of underneath stuff. Again, keep an eye on the team’s off-season moves. If they indeed elect to move away from the West Coast Offense and decide to make McAllister the offensive focal point, Horn’s value could drop considerably and his numbers dip by as much as 25%.

During the ‘03 season, tight end Boo Williams posted some very good games and seemed poised to break into the top tier at his position. But, along with the team’s defense, Boo proved to be a bitter disappointment. The sole other Saint skill position player worthy of a second glance would be the aforementioned WR, Donte Stallworth. Along with good speed and great bloodlines (he’s related to legendary Steeler pass-catcher John Stallworth) came big expectations. Stallworth, however, has had a litany of injuries (chronic hamstring issues, for one) and had been unable to stay healthy until this past season. A 58-catch, five-TD ‘04 makes him draft-worthy. If the guy can stay between the hash marks and out of physical therapy, look for him to build on his solid season.

Carolina Panthers

This team was positively besieged by injuries last season (with 14 athletes simultaneously on the IL). At one point, wide receivers and running backs were dropping like flies and the team was forced to trot out its fifth string running back … and my oh my, did that ever turn out to be a good decision! The team started out 1-7, then turned it on and won six of their next eight and made an admirable playoff push. There were several inspiring story lines for the Panthers this past season, but the most significant might have been a continued emergence of defensive talent. Young and relentless, the D often kept a team competitive. Teams who’ve relied upon their aggressive Ds such as the mid-’80s Bears, ‘90 Giants, and recent Raven squads, have demonstrated that a franchise need not field a Manning, Moss and Tomlinson in order to secure a post-season berth.

Defending ‘by land,’ the Panthers averaged more than two Sacks per game. Defending ‘by air,’ 11 different players recorded at least one interception, six players recorded multiple picks, and the team as a whole had a very impressive 26 picks. But as smothering as the D proved to be, there’s hope yet for that offense! During the week 2 game against Kansas City (there they are again!), third-year running back DeShaun Foster flashed game-breaking ability with a 32-carry, 174-yard performance. Unfortunately, Foster was subsequently lost for the season after week 5. And as much as the team missed WR Steve Smith, veteran WR Muhsin Muhammed reemerged to record a simply awesome 16-TD season. Due to his staggering cap number, however, Muhammed will have to agree to restructure his contract if he hopes to return. But even with uncertainty revolving around Muhammed, Smith and Stephen Davis’ return, fiery QB Jake Delhomme, RBs Nick Goings and DeShaun Foster, WR Keary Colbert, and a bright young defense should key another playoff run.

QB Jake Delhomme
3 STARS: 3,886 Yards, 30 TDs (1 Rushing), 15 Ints
A ’steady-Eddie’ QB can be a fantasy team owner’s best friend, and few passers were more consistent than Delhomme. Recording touchdown passes in 15 of 17 games and with 11 multiple-TD games to his credit, Delhomme was as reliable as any fantasy QB in ‘04. While his control was admittedly a bit rocky through week 6, given the team’s spate of injuries and the Panthers’ need to almost completely revise their offensive philosophy, Delhomme should be accorded a little slack. A tough, reliable, and gritty athlete who inspires confidence in his teammates, Delhomme’s numbers could even creep up a bit next season, assuming the Panthers’ top skill position players return to health.

RB DeShaun Foster
2 1/2 STARS: 255 Yards, 2 TDs
Foster is another athlete whose ranking is based more upon po’ than po’formance. Although fellow RB Stephen Davis is expected back, due to the serious nature of Davis’ surgery coupled with his age, the plan, it seems, is to give Foster a heavy preseason load and see what shakes out. The team likes Foster’s burst and top-end speed, running style, and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. While Foster isn’t a true keeper, he’s certainly draft-worthy. And if Foster can endure the rigors of the NFL, something he has yet to do, he offers an owner 1,000 yard and 6-8 TD potential.

Muhsin Muhammed
3 STARS: 93 Rec.,1,405 Yards, 16 TDs
Muhammed is at a career crossroads. Although he’s at an age when WRs generally start to lose a step, Muhammed posted career best numbers, had some rather gaudy fantasy games, and finished the season in strong style. ‘Moose’ had at least 90 yards receiving in ten games, recorded over 100 yards receiving in seven contests (including an inspiring 10-catch, 179-yard week 13 performance against the Saints), and scored in eight of the team’s final ten games. That whole crossroads thing? Muhammed, who didn’t really distinguish himself in either ‘02 or ‘03, is due a $10 million roster bonus on March 1 and will count $12.5 million against the Panthers’ ‘05 salary cap. Then, there’s the distinct possibility that his ridiculous numbers were part of a free agent contract drive. The best guess is that Muhammed, who claims to enjoy playing for the Panthers, will allow his deal to be reworked. And while he can’t possibly be expected to post the numbers he did last season, with a strong core of skill position players returning and a quality pass-catcher opposite him in young Keary Colbert, look for Moose to be a solid #2 fantasy receiver, notch another 1,000 yards receiving, and be much closer to 10 TDs than 20.

After Delhomme, Foster, and Muhammed, my fantasy Magic 8-Ball gets a bit murky. Using keeper slots on athletes such as RBs Stephen Davis and Nick Goings, and WRs Steve Smith and Keary Colbert offers high risk to modest reward. Davis had a very good 2003 campaign in which he ran for 1,444 yards, but is returning from serious microfracture knee surgery and is far from a safe bet to return in top form. There’s a definite possibility that his best days are behind him. As for surprise fifth-string RB Nick Goings who came from nowhere and saved Carolina’s bacon by recording 821 yards rushing, 394 yards receiving, and seven TDs, he’ll most likely split carries with Foster. Ultimately, Goings’ fantasy value will be contingent upon Davis’ return and Foster’s durability. From a fantasy standpoint, should they all be healthy, the trio of backs will most likely diminish one another’s value.

Regarding smurf-esque WR Steve Smith, who’s also returning from a season ending injury (broken leg), he’s not a keeper, but keep an eye on his mini-camp and preseason performance as he retains modest fantasy value. And complementary WR Keary Colbert? Although his ability and contributions (754 yards, five TDs) were eclipsed by Muhammed, Colbert possesses upside and is worth expending a mid-round pick on if Muhammed should depart, and a late-rounder if Muhammed returns.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A pair of back to back losing seasons has served to further deepen Jon ‘Chucky’ Gruden’s perpetual scowl. Meanwhile, that scowl could be morphing into a grimace, because the seat Gruden’s on is rapidly heating. The bottom line is that the team has a lot of work to do before they can even consider a serious playoff run. Trying to assess the fantasy value of the Bucs’ skill position players is rather daunting, for this is a team that makes its living, primarily, off of its aggressive defense. Furthermore, with a pair of notable exceptions, the skill players who aren’t passed their primes are a relatively unremarkable bunch and won’t do a whole lot to push a fantasy franchise over the top. While many owners wouldn’t consider the following athletes to be keepers, they are worthy of mention.

QB Brian Griese
2 STARS: 2,632 Yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs
While Griese was certainly serviceable from a fantasy perspective this past season, a prohibitive cap number in conjunction with the coaching staff’s comfort level with young Chris Simms would indicate that Griese’s no lock to return. The interesting thing is that Griese, having been to the Pro Bowl a few seasons back, went from the highest of possible highs in Denver to being bench-meat. The move to Tampa Bay was just the tonic for Griese, who has seemingly rediscovered both his touch and passion for the game. Nevertheless, keep an eye on Tampa’s sure to be busy off-season. Griese could well be released and the bright, promising Simms installed.

RB Michael Pittman
2 1/2 STARS: 926 Yards, 10 TDs (3 Rec.), 391 Yards Rec.
Meet aforementioned ‘exception #1.’ Pittman is built like the proverbial brick house and possesses nice wiggle for a big man. With good speed and soft hands, Pittman’s a versatile weapon and a threat to score from virtually anywhere on the field. Case in point: the week 12 game against Carolina saw Pittman record a mere 29 yards on 18 carries, and eight receptions for 134 yards and two TDs. Such flexibility is rare but here’s the rub: Pittman carries more baggage than the QE 2, and the Buccaneers are seriously contemplating taking a running back in April’s back-rich draft. If, on the other hand, the Bucs elect to bolster the O-line and defense and do not use a high-round pick on a runner, Pittman will be worthy of using a keeper slot. Do a little research before you draft the brutish Buc back.

WR Michael Clayton
2 1/2 STARS: 80 Rec., 1,193 Yards, 7 TDs
Meet ‘exception #2,’ rookie pass catcher Michael Clayton. In an ‘04 draft that included more prolific receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) and Roy Williams (Detroit), Clayton’s wonderful season eclipsed them all. Still, Clayton doesn’t have game-breaking speed, and while he’s sure to be an impact player with hands soft enough to catch sunbeams, it’s very possible that he benefited from Tampa’s dearth of pass-catching talent. Carefully examine your roster before allotting a keeper slot to Clayton.

Next Up… the AFC North!

 
Jamey Feuer is the Children’s Librarian for a large New Jersey community. Often, parents will bring their little ones to his library with the primary motive of talking sports with Jamey.

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