Spotlight Game: Indianapolis at Baltimore

Each week, Dave presents a preview of the week’s most interesting contests from a fantasy perspective, offering his take on player performances, potential sleepers and, of course, the game’s outcome. This week, the focus is on the Sunday night matchup between the Colts, perhaps the top team in the league when it comes to putting points on the board, and the Ravens, whose defense doesn’t fear anybody – not even Peyton Manning & Co.

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning: Unfortunately for Manning owners, he will start the season on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Manning is always a must start in all formats though (unless you have Daunte Culpepper rotting on your bench), just expect slightly lesser numbers against a defense of this stature. He had over 4500 yards passing along with 49 TDs last year, so sleep easy. His numbers will go down slightly on the road against a team like Baltimore, but I would still expect about 250 yards, two TDs, and an interception.

Edgerrin James: James was criticized somewhat last year for his inability to get into the end zone (partially due to Manning’s penchant for passing when the Colts reached the red zone). However, the Colts’ star RB still finished with over 2000 total yards and nine TDs. James could have a tough time in this one though, as Baltimore is ready to stop him. James had problems last year against the Ravens, gaining only 69 yards rushing on 22 carries. He should still be in your line-ups, however, unless you have a viable backup with a better match-up (or a sleeper like Willie Parker). One plus for James owners is that Dominic Rhodes will likely be out for week 1, giving James even more of the rushing load. I would peg him for 70-75 on 20 carries, and another 25-30 yards on three catches. However, James could easily be kept out of the end zone in this game (especially if Manning operates like he did last year).

Indianapolis WRs: One of the problems for fantasy players last year was trying to decide who would pick up the majority of the catches for the Colts in a given week. Unfortunately, this trend could easily continue into this year. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley all had at least 1000 yards and 10 TDs last year. If you sit one of these receivers, I would lean toward Stokley, who was the least consistent of the three last year (and was hampered by a shoulder injury this pre-season). As for this game, I would look for Wayne and Harrison to grab 75 yards and a TD each. On a hunch, I will say that Stokley will be shut down by the feisty Ravens defense: only 20 yards on a couple of catches for Brandon.

Dallas Clark: Clark, a popular sleeper pick at TE in many fantasy drafts this year, has surfaced on the injury report with a concussion. He is currently listed as questionable, and unless we find out anything concrete before game time, you would be treading on thin ice by starting him. A possible injury thrown in with a road game against the Ravens is not a particularly good recipe for success. Assuming Clark finds his way onto the field, I will say that he grabs two to three catches for 25 yards. Regardless of whether or not Clark plays or not, backup Ben Hartsock should also see more time than usual. Hartsock could also grab another 10 or 15 yards receiving.

Defense: Individually, stay away from Montae Reagor (doubtful), Rocky Calmus (questionable), and Mike Doss (suspended). Other than that, Dwight Freeney and newcomer Corey Simon are quality starts (along with Robert Mathis), as each should be able to get to Baltimore quarterback Kyle Boller once. At LB, Cato June (over 100 tackles last year), and David Thornton (92 tackles) are viable plays, seeing as they both should be heavily involved in both stopping both the run and the pass. Expect at least five tackles from each player. The Colts do not offer many quality starts at the cornerback or safety spots, but the best they have to offer right now would be Nicholas Harper (77 tackles, three interceptions last year). As for Indianapolis’ team defense, they turned in a surprisingly productive fantasy year in some formats last season, despite allowing a ridiculous amount of points (due to their high number of turnovers and sacks). The addition of Corey Simon can only help those sack numbers, and the Colts’ defense is a significant sleeper against a Ravens team that can struggle to score offensively. The Colts should chalk up three sacks along with at least one turnover.

Baltimore

Kyle Boller: You want to stay away from Boller in this game. Yes, he is at home facing a porous defense, but a quality pass rush combined with the fact that the Ravens will pound the ball for the majority of the game does not equate to a good fantasy day for Boller. In addition, since Baltimore will employ both Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor in this game, he may only throw around 20 times if this game is close. I’ll say Boller goes for 160-175 yards, 0 TDs, and an interception.

Jamal Lewis/Chester Taylor: This is where the majority of the Baltimore offense should come from this week. Indianapolis is very weak against the run, and the Ravens should be running early and often. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, several sources (The Baltimore Sun, Yahoo.com, Fanball.com) are reporting that Lewis will start, but Taylor will spell him and the number of carries they receive will be “fairly equitable,” according to head coach Brian Billick. Lewis will ease his way into a full workload, so consider sitting him, but only if you have a productive backup. Despite the split in carries, I can still see Lewis going for 80-85 yards and a TD on 18-20 carries. Taylor could see 65-70 yards and a TD on 16-18 carries.

Baltimore WRs: Baltimore comes into the season with a new look at WR. Derrick Mason has come to town to give the Ravens a legitimate threat at the WR position. However, many downgraded Mason’s fantasy status this year based on the fact that Kyle Boller has yet to develop. The fact, though, is that Mason is second only to Torry Holt in receptions since 2003 with an amazing 191. Mason will produce in Baltimore, but probably not on Sunday. The Ravens want Manning off the field, and they will have to run to do it. I see Mason finishing with around 50 yards, along with Clarence Moore and rookie Mark Clayton combining for about 50 more.

Todd Heap: Some lost confidence in Heap after his injury a year ago. However, the Ravens have reported that he is back to full strength and will be 100% for the season. He tended to go off the boarda little later in drafts because of the injury, but he could easily become a top five TE if he has indeed completely recovered from last year. He had a solid 303 yards and three TDs in only six games last year, and there is no reason why he cannot return to his previous form. Boller may look to him often if the Colts’ vaunted pass rush begins to get to him. Heap could have 40-50 yards receivers with some red zone looks.

Defense: As always, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are definite starts for their high tackle numbers. dd Terrell Suggs to that list as well. With 22.5 sacks in his first two professional seasons, he could be one of the few Ravens to put some pressure on Peyton. I would recommend sitting Chris McAlister this week, since he doesn’t put up particularly gaudy tackle numbers, and his chances to create a turnover this week are slim with Manning at the helm. Baltimore’s team defense is arguably the best fantasy defense to own. Do not expect huge points from them this week, however. The fact that Peyton is not prone to mistakes and that his offensive line keeps him clean is reason enough to be leery of Baltimore as a fantasy defense this weekend. They are not a bad start, but it might be worth it to take a flier on a mediocre defense that faces an anemic offense this week, instead. I would expect only one turnover and one sack from the Ravens’ D.

Sleeper

Troy Walters: Walters is a talented player who is buried in the Colts’ depth chart of talented receivers. However, he could be a sleeper this week, especially in deeper leagues that value return yardage. Walters already is the regular punt returner for the team, but with Dominic Rhodes likely out for this game, he will also take over regular kick returning duties in this game. Along with these return duties, he could easily catch a few balls when the Colts go to the four-WR sets. Walters could have 30 yards along with a good amount of return yardage. He is a good start this week in deep leagues that use KR/PR as a position.

Prediction

This game looks to be a virtual toss up. A high-octane offense against a stingy defense should set the stage for a wild Sunday nighter. The only real gauge I have to judge this game is Indianapolis’ 20-10 win over Baltimore last year – but this year’s game is in Baltimore. And plenty has changed since then, including Baltimore’s pick-up of a proven wide receiver in Derrick Mason (not to mention the return of Todd Heap). All that said, I think the result of this game rests squarely on the shoulders of Kyle Boller. Until he proves otherwise and develops into the quarterback that many expect him to be, I will go with the Colts in this one. Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 17.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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