Spotlight Game: Indianapolis at Cincinnati

This contest is eerily similar to the game in 2003 when the Bengals defeated the 9-0 Chiefs, ending their quest for a perfect season. A couple of things have changed, however. The Bengals are a much better team this time around, but the Colts may be the most complete team that the NFL has seen in a long while. The question is, can the Bengals stop the balanced offense (including the revamped running game) of the Colts? The Bengals only give up 14.9 points per game (third in the league), but they still trail the Colts, who give up a mere 12.8 points per game (second). Cincinnati is at home and is healthy and rested coming off a bye week. However, the Colts have been in these situations before.

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning: Manning’s numbers could be down a little this week. While Cincinnati has lost both of their starting safeties for the year, Kevin Kaesviharn and Ifeanyi Ohalete have done an admirable job in backup duties. They also boast a dangerous and opportunistic tandem at the corners with Tory James and Deltha O’Neal, who have led them to the tenth-best passing defense in the NFL. Lastly, they are not very vulnerable to the big play. They have given up an NFL-low one pass play of 30+ yards (a 68-yard TD pass to Cleveland’s Frisman Jackson in week 1). Manning will get his yards, but I think Cincinnati will keep him away from the end zone for the most part. The Bengals should be cognizant of what Manning is capable of (15 touchdown passes in his last six games), so I expect them to be ready for him. I also expect the Colts to pound James often, leaving Manning with fewer attempts. Manning will go for 240 yards, a TD, and an interception.

Edgerrin James: James finds himself in a great situation on Sunday. He has the opportunity to produce a big day and the chance to dictate the pace of the game. The Bengals give up 4.7 yards per carry, while James averages 4.6 per carry. This is a recipe for success for James, who is already over the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Start him in all formats; he should be one of the more productive running backs this week. Chalk him down for 125 yards and two touchdowns on 25-28 tries.

Indianapolis WRs: Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne have both been productive this year as expected. Brandon Stokley, who was part of the unprecedented trio of 1,000-yard receivers last year, has seen his numbers drop due to the focus on James. Wayne leads the AFC with 54 receptions, but he has not been a prominent red zone target to this point in the year (three TDs). I see no reason why this shouldn’t continue. Wayne should have seven or eight grabs for 70 yards. Harrison has again been the model of consistency, catching 53 balls for 624 yards and eight touchdowns. There are enough weapons on this team to keep Harrison and Wayne away from consistent double coverage, so Harrison should end up with another productive day. He will haul in six balls for 75 yards and a score. Stokley should add 25 yards to the mix.

Dallas Clark: With Madieu Williams sidelined for the season, the Bengals have had a difficult time defending pass-catching tight ends (evidenced by the way Heath Miller shredded the secondary in week seven). Therefore, I see Clark as a sneaky play here. He has been lost in the shuffle due to the number of offensive weapons that the Colts possess (19 catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns on the year), but Cincy has struggled against quality tight ends. If you are scrambling for a play at tight end due to injury, consider Clark for the open slot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with four catches for 40-50 yards and a red zone look.

Defense: The Colts defense has been a fixture at the team defense slot for many fantasy teams during the season, but this is a week to sit them. They are facing a formidable AFC foe on the road, and one that can score. Carson Palmer is not prone to turning the ball over, so do not look for much in the turnover category. The Colts’ fantasy performance as a team defense will depend on how many times they can get to Palmer. I’m expecting two to three sacks and one or two turnovers, but Cincinnati should put up enough points to counteract these defensive stats. The Colts do offer several IDP options. Both Cato June and Gary Brackett have been very effective at linebacker. June is your best bet, as he has recorded 71 total tackles (first on the team) and five interceptions (two for touchdowns). Brackett is also a very dependable tackler, registering 69 tackles (second on the team). Assuming that he plays, Bob Sanders (questionable – knee) is an option in the secondary with 50 tackles. Of course, Robert Mathis (nine sacks), Dwight Freeney (seven), and Montae Reagor (four and a half) are all viable plays on the D-line. If Palmer goes down, chances are that one of these three will be responsible.

Cincinnati

Carson Palmer: Palmer should find himself throwing often in this game. If the Bengals are behind late in the contest, he will throw more, but he will also be vulnerable to the pass rush. If Rudi Johnson is mixed into the offense enough to change the pace, Palmer should be effective. I like Carson to have yet another productive fantasy day, and, dare I say, outshine Manning. Palmer goes for 275 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry: Johnson has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this year. While he is on his way to well over 1,000 yards this season (778 yards thus far), he has scored a meager three times. Johnson’s production on Sunday will hinge on the score. Depending on who takes control early, you could see a huge fluctuation in Rudi’s carries. The Colts’ defense is ninth in the league in rushing defense, allowing under 100 yards per game. Therefore, I wouldn’t look for a huge yardage day from Rudi, but I do like him to punch one in from the goal line. Rudi will rush 18 times for 65 yards and a TD. Perry should function as the change-of-pace back, but he should see a substanial amount of touches. Perry is actually the third-leading receiver on the team with 264 yards. He should have five carries for 18 yards and five catches for another 40 yards.

Cincinnati WRs: If there is one place where it is possible to expose Indy’s defense, it is at corner. Nick Harper has been relatively solid, but he will have the tall task of covering the man that is “impossible to cover” in Chad Johnson. Even though Harper will be his primary defender, Johnson should have two guys draped all over him for the majority of his day. Still, expect him to secure seven balls for 75 yards and a touchdown. I really like TJ Houshmandzadeh on the other side of the field. He is healthy again now, and he should be facing off against corner Jason David, who has been inconsistent at times this season. If Johnson has defenders all over him, Housh will be the beneficiary. I would start TJ this week, as I think that he could go for 100 yards and a trip to the end zone on nine catches. Chris Henry, perhaps the fastest player on Cincinnati’s roster, could add 30 yards to Cincinnati’s vaunted passing attack.

Matt Schobel: Once again, no tight end on the Bengals is worth a look until they begin to integrate this position into the offense. Schobel is leading Bengal tight ends with ten grabs for 112 yards. Enough said. He should be good for a catch or two.

Defense: This opportunistic defense shouldn’t see too many opportunities against one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Due to the inconsistency of their defensive line, the Bengals’ fantasy prowess has been fueled mostly by timely turnovers thus far in the season. Therefore, since turnovers will most likely not be seen often in this game, stay away from the Bengals team defense this week. Expect one turnover and a sack. As for IDPs, nobody is worth a play on the Bengals D-line since Manning rarely takes a sack (not to mention that no player on the team has more than two sacks this year). Odell Thurman (50 tackles, four interceptions, one sack) is the most consistent fantasy producer. Brian Simmons (46 tackles) should also be good for six or seven tackles. Deltha O’Neal and Tory James have six and four interceptions respectively, but you will be running a risk by starting them.

Sleeper

Corey Simon: Simon has 24 tackles, no interceptions, and no sacks on the year. Looking at this stat line, it wouldn’t be possible to gauge how important Simon is to the Colts. With Freeney, Reagor, and Mathis responsible for the team’s dangerous pass rush, someone has to be left to anchor the run defense. Simon has been that player. Indianapolis acquired him from Philadelphia for that very reason. He not only clogs up the middle and makes tackles, but he makes running backs stretch their runs to the outside. Simon will lead the charge when Rudi Johnson or Chris Perry come to the line looking for a hole.

Matchups to Watch

Edgerrin James vs. Cincinnati’s front seven: This could be the deciding factor. The Bengals are 24th in the league against the run, but they better improve on that number on Sunday. James’ resurgence comes as no surprise, as the Colts had promised to become a more balanced team. The Colts could very well run more often than they pass on Sunday afternoon. If Edge can run effectively, the Colts will not only control the clock, but they could also make Cincinnati’s offense one-dimensional by jumping out to an early lead. Edge must be contained, or Cincinnati will see a third blemish on their record.

Robert Mathis, Dwight Freeney, and Montae Reagor vs. Cincinnati’s offensive line: With 31 sacks in nine games, it is obvious that the Colts’ defensive line has done its job in getting to the quarterback. They are the catalyst for this opportunistic defense, and the majority of the damage has been done by Mathis, Freeney, and Reagor. They will face a formidable offensive line against Cincinnati anchored by veterans Willie Anderson and Levi Jones. Palmer should be throwing often in this game, and Jones and Anderson will need to keep him clean. If Indy can get to Palmer often, they should head back home with the victory.

Prediction

Cincinnati comes off the bye week healthy, rested, and ready for the team’s first playoff run in about 15 years. So, all of the intangibles seem to be Cincinnati’s favor, but the Colts have the experience (not to mention loads of talent). Even though Cincinnati is the underdog, the hype has begun (with tickets selling for more then ten times face value). However, the Colts will not take this team lightly, so we should see a show. Ultimately, I believe that Palmer will outperform Manning at quarterback, but James may be too much for the defense to handle. Cincinnati is loaded with young talent, but something tells me that the Bengals may be a year away from winning this game. I’ve gone back and forth trying to figure out who will win this clash, but I’ll say that Vanderjagt hits a FG late for the victor< . Indianapolis 27, Cincinnati 24.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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