Spotlight Game: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

There are several obvious storylines heading into this one. While there is speculation about Indianapolis’ possible perfect season, the fact remains that Ben Roethlisberger has yet to lose to a team not named the Patriots. Despite the fact that each team is in prime position to make a playoff run, there are concerns on both sides. The Colts have to reassert themselves defensively after faltering against Cincinnati in week 11. On the other hand, the Steelers hope that the return of Big Ben can help them recover from a disappointing loss at the hands of the Ravens a week ago.

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger will play in this game despite a lingering knee problem. I expect the Steelers to attempt to establish the run early to ease Big Ben back into the mix. As the game goes on, however, they may have to take to the air more often. I feel that Roethlisberger will be somewhat erratic in his first game back (especially early), but he should eventually put up a productive day. Ben will throw for 195 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Pittsburgh RBs: I would suggest staying away from Pittsburgh’s running back situation in week 12. For the first time this season, Duce Staley, Willie Parker, and Jerome Bettis are all healthy enough to play. Also, according to KFFL, Bill Cowher will not commit to a running back rotation this week, so there is no telling who will get the carries. With Staley deactivated in week 11, Parker was the primary ballcarrier as Bettis only saw two carries in backup duty. I would expect to see Staley’s role increase in this game. Last week, Cincinnati gashed the middle of the Indianapolis defensive line by taking advantage of their pass-rushing defensive ends. While Parker has been getting carries, he is not the kind of runner that frequently goes between the tackles. If Parker bounces to the outside, then he would be playing directly into the Colts’ strengths. Therefore, I like Staley and Bettis to see an increased role on Monday. Parker will get his 14-16 carries for 50 yards. Staley should see about 10 carries for 35-40 yards. Lastly, Bettis should only see about five to seven carries for 20 yards, but he has the best chance of scoring in short-yardage situations.

Pittsburgh WRs: Of course, Hines Ward is your only dependable play here. Ward has 629 yards and six touchdowns on the year, and he should make a push for his fifth straight 1,000-yard season. Ward will keep up with Heath Miller in the race for the team lead in touchdown receptions. Ward will grab seven balls for 70 yards and a TD. Antwaan Randle El is a spot start at best. He is a star at times, but has no consistency (only two TDs this year – one passing and one receiving). He should be good for 50 yards on four grabs and one rush for another 10 yards. Cedrick Wilson, Ben’s fourth option in the passing game, should tally 20 yards receiving.

Heath Miller: Miller is tied for the team lead in touchdowns with six, so he has become a viable fantasy start during his rookie season. However, his solid touchdown numbers are tempered by his inconsistency. At times he is a focal point of the offense, and at other times he is conspicuously absent. He only has seven grabs for 48 yards in his last three games combined (no TDs). Many will say that this is the result of Big Ben’s absence, and we will find that out on Monday. Miller is a risk/reward play this week, but I would lean towards starting him after three sub-par performances. He has a connection with Roethlisberger, and you could see him record his seventh score of the year on Monday. Miller will record a TD on five receptions for 40 yards.

Defense: The Steel Curtain probably will not hold up for this game. The Colts are too balanced an offense to justify playing the Steelers in this spot. The Steelers average three sacks per game, but don’t expect them to touch that number as they attempt to handle Indy’s no-huddle offense. I would expect only one sack and one turnover. Ike Taylor has been a pleasant fantasy surprise at corner this year. His 71 tackles lead the team, and he is searching for his first career 100-tackle season. Chris Hope is also an option in the secondary with 65 tackles and three interceptions. James Farrior should be returning on Monday, and he is still second on the team in tackles despite missing two games. He averages over eight tackles per game, and this game should reflect that statistic. I would stay away from Pittsburgh’s prominent pass-rushers (like Joey Porter and Clark Haggans) due to Indianapolis’ ability to protect Manning.

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning: Manning should continue his near-perfect play on Monday night. While the Steelers are sixth in total defense, they are 17th in passing defense, and their secondary does have the tendency to be shaky at times. Not much analysis here: Manning will roll on Monday. In his career, he is 4-0 with a passer rating over 100 on Monday night. Both streaks should continue. Peyton will throw for 280-300 yards and three scores.

Edgerrin James: With Cincinnati keying on him last week, James was held under 100 yards rushing for the first time in six games. However, he still reached the end zone twice as the Colts had their way with the Bengals defense. James will face a stiffer test this week when he comes up against a formidable Steeler front seven that expects to have James Farrior back. Pittsburgh boasts the third-ranked rushing defense in the league, allowing just over 82 yards per game. Expect James to get off to a slow start as Manning & Co. establish the passing game against “Blitzburgh.” If Indy is able to open up a lead, they will ride James to a victory. James will get 22 tries for 85 yards, three grabs for 20 yards, and a TD.

Indianapolis WRs: Marvin Harrison quietly recorded his 900th reception last week while his teammates took care of everything else. Harrison (five catches for 42 yards) was one of the few Colts that were not beneficiaries in the offensive scoring outburst. He should return to form this week, as it will be tough to focus on him exclusively. Harrison should be good for 100 yards and a score on nine catches. Reggie Wayne’s increased role should continue as well. Wayne has recorded 22 catches for an astounding 313 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games. Manning should continue to look to him. His owners should expect 70 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. Brandon Stokley should be a contributor as well if Manning can exploit Pittsburgh’s blitzing defense. Manning will spread the wealth, hitting Stokley for 40 yards and his second trip to pay dirt this year.

Dallas Clark: Clark turned in a career game in Cincinnati last week, totaling 125 yards and a touchdown. Unlike the Bengals, however, the Steelers can deal with pass-catching tight ends. If Clark goes short, the linebackers, led by Farrior, should be able to deal with him. If he stretches the field, Troy Polamalu and Chris Hope should be able to handle him. Clark is not a poor start this week, but I would not have high expectations for him. Clark will have four grabs for 40 yards with a possible red zone look.

Defense: The Colts are not a poor play, but there are better options to be found on the wire. While the Steelers are not immune to giving up sacks (opponents have 20 against them this year), I feel that protecting Ben will be of the utmost importance to the team on Monday. Therefore, I expect the Steelers to begin the game by running the ball and throwing quick, short routes (lessening the opportunity for the defense to make an impact). The defense will get their chance late in the game, but ultimately they won’t have enough opportunities to be a top-tier fantasy option this week. Two sacks and one or two turnovers should be accurate for this unit. The sacks should come from either Robert Mathis (10 sacks, 43 tackles) or Dwight Freeney (seven sacks, 21 tackles), so starting them is recommended. Cato June and Gary Brackett form quite a tandem at linebacker. Each has 79 total tackles on the year, so you can count on a consistent game from each of them.

Sleeper

Nick Harper: Harper, a fifth-year man out of Fort Valley St., has become the Colts’ primary cornerback. He is often responsible for covering the team’s #1 receiver, and in this case it is Hines Ward. Despite a couple of sub-par games, Harper has embraced this role well. He is also improving his ability to make wrap-up tackles, as demonstrated by his career-high nine tackles last week. If he can contain Ward, the Pittsburgh passing game will be stagnant.

Matchup to Watch

Pittsburgh RBs vs. Indianapolis front seven: Going into week 11, Indianapolis boasted one of the more effective run defenses in the league. However, they have since shown that they are vulnerable up the middle. Chris Perry was the most glaring example, as he used several draw plays to average over ten yards per carry on eight touches. If the Steelers can mix Parker’s running style well with the hard nosed rushing of Bettis and Staley up the middle, they have a shot at ending Indianapolis’ chances at an undefeated season. If Indy can plug up the running lanes, Pittsburgh will have a difficult time getting into a rhythm.

Prediction

The good news for Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger is back, and the formerly injury-riddled defense is almost fully healed. The bad news: They face Peyton and the Colts on the road on Monday night. This will be a tough task. Manning and the Colts love to exploit blitzing defenses, and that is the foundation of the Steelers’ defense. The Steelers’ 17th-ranked pass defense will have a tough time keeping up with Manning’s frantic pace. As week 12 ends, I believe that the Steelers will be looking up at the Bengals in the AFC North. However, they can take control of the division with a victory over their division rival in week 13. Indianapolis 31, Pittsburgh 20.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

 

(No Ratings Yet)  Loading ... Questions or comments for Dave? Post them in the Cafe Forums! Want to see your own fantasy wisdom published? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!