Spotlight Game: Chicago at Pittsburgh

This is one of those “must win” games for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They currently trail Kansas City and San Diego by a game for the final playoff spot in the AFC (although they own the tiebreaker against San Diego). All is not lost for Pittsburgh, however, as they could sneak into the playoffs with a strong finish (Kansas City and San Diego both have difficult schedules the rest of the way). Chicago, on the other hand, is the surprise team in the NFC. They have a two-game lead over Minnesota in the NFC North, and they have posted eight straight wins after beginning the year 1-3.

Chicago

Kyle Orton: After Rex Grossman went down early in the season, many figured that the Bears’ season was over. These fears seemed to be justified at first, as the inexperienced Orton threw five interceptions in a 24-7 week three loss to Cincinnati. Since that loss, the Bears have gone 8-1, including a current eight-game winning streak. The Bears defense has taken over, and this squad has become a carbon copy of the 2000 Ravens team. The pressure is off Orton, as he can now play within himself to lead the team to victory. That being said, Orton will not be a fantasy option unless he gets a few more years to develop in this system. He will try to act as the stabilizing force for the Bears on Sunday, but something tells me that he could struggle in the face of the “Blitz-burgh” defense. I will say that Orton will finish with 150 yards passing, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Steelers passing defense can be beaten, but I don’t think Orton will be able to take advantage at this stage of his career.

Thomas Jones: After Cedric Benson’s injury, most thought that Jones would now have a stranglehold on the starting RB position (as he did for the majority of the year). However, with lingering injuries hampering him, Jones received 19 carries last week while his new backup, Adrian Peterson, received 11 tries. Despite this, Jones now looks to be fully recovered and ready to go. The Steelers boast the fourth-best rushing defense in the league, but they have faltered in the last two weeks, allowing Edgerrin James (29 carries, 124 yards) and Rudi Johnson (21 carries, 98 yards, two TDs) to have their way. Therefore, I think Jones should see plenty of carries and yards in this game. Jones has been one of the more underrated backs in the league this season. He has anchored a team without a strong passing game with his 1,005 yards and six touchdowns. I expect to see 25-27 carries for 100-110 yards and a TD from Jones. Adrian Peterson has averaged 5.7 yards per carry this season, so he will get his touches as well. He should see 10 carries for about 35-40 yards.

Chicago WRs: Not much on the horizon for fantasy players here: even though Pittsburgh’s pass defense is 21st in the league, do not expect any of the Chicago WRs to make a big splash here. Veteran Mushin Muhammad leads the group with 561 yards and three touchdowns on 48 receptions. He should be Orton’s main target in this game. Muhammad should pick up about 60 yards receiving on six catches. Rookie Mark Bradley and Justin Gage are the other contributors at wide receiver. Bradley definitely has a future in the NFL, and he is beginning to develop. Expect him to add 30 yards through the air while Gage adds a catch for 10 yards.

Desmond Clark: Clark acted as Orton’s safety valve early in the season before the quarterback got used to the speed of the NFL game. Clark has seen his production decline now that Orton has the confidence to throw into traffic. Clark has functioned primarily as a blocker, but has caught the ball when he has been needed (23 receptions, 202 yards, two touchdowns). I actually like Clark in this game if you happen to be in a deep league (very deep) or you have been plugging in tight ends due to injury. With Pittsburgh’s blitzes, look for Orton to check it down to Clark quite often. Expect Clark to record five grabs for 30-40 yards and a red-zone look.

Defense: Chicago, as always, is a must-start regardless of the matchup. Their performance may hinge on Ben Roethlisberger’s arm. Big Ben demonstrated that he can throw often against Cincinnati, but he made several wobbly tosses that resulted in three interceptions. Chicago will pressure Big Ben, so it’s up to him to avoid mistakes. At the end of the day, I feel that Chicago will have a productive day. Chalk them down for two or three sacks and one to two turnovers. Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are solid options at linebacker with 92 and 83 tackles respectively. Urlacher is your best option with his six sacks on the season. Adewale Ogunleye is the best pick at the D-line spot. His 38 tackles and nine sacks should have his owners salivating at his prospects this week. A good risk/reward play is Nathan Vasher at defensive back. Vasher has a nose for the ball, accumulating 37 tackles and seven interceptions this year. Mike Brown (calf) and rookie Chris Harris (knee) are both out for this game, so plan accordingly. This means that Chicago will be missing both of their starting safeties on Sunday.

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger: Since the running game was largely ineffective, Big Ben was forced to throw an unprecedented 41 times last week, with mixed results. He may have to throw often once again against a stingy Chicago defense. However, both of Chicago’s starting safeties are out, so perhaps Ben could take a couple of shots deep (although it is said that he has a difficult time doing this due to his thumb injury). It is tough to predict how Big Ben will react in this situation, so I see him having another up and down game. I’ll say that he goes for 225 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Pittsburgh RBs: Willie Parker, a once dependable back, is now suffering from what used to be called Tiki Barber syndrome (two fumbles last week). Jerome Bettis, who used to hit the hole hard, now flops into the line to gain one or two yards. Duce Staley, once a steady back, has showed signs of slowing. One of these backs must show up to play on Sunday. I think it will be Parker. Despite Parker’s frustrating fumbling problems last week, he still found enough holes to rush 15 times for 71 yards. Bettis is no longer a reliable back. He is really only useful in short-yardage situations. Staley also looks sluggish and tentative as he works his way back into the fray. Therefore, despite his problems, I expect Parker to carry the load once again. Look for 18 carries for 70 yards for Parker. Bettis will still be used for short-yardage and goal-line purposes. He will contribute five carries for 10 yards while Staley will get three tries for 10 yards. The Steelers do not need a dominant running game against the Bears, but they do need one that will be effective enough to open up the passing game.

Pittsburgh WRs: As always, Hines Ward is the dependable play. Despite the tough matchup, Roethlisberger should target him often. This should result in a seven-catch game that includes 80 yards and a score. Antwaan Randle El could have an impact on this contest as well. With both of Chicago’s starting safeties out, either Randle El or Cedrick Wilson could take a couple of shots down the field. Randle El could make a big play either as a receiver or on special teams, where he is always dangerous. I’ll say that Wilson and Randle El each contribute 45 yards to the cause. If Ben’s thumb is healthy enough to go downfield, one of these receivers will be the beneficiary.

Heath Miller: Miller should be solid as usual in this game. He is probably not a great start, however, as neither team should be spending too much time in the red zone during this game. Miller is Big Ben’s second option in the red zone (next to Ward), but there will not be an abundance of opportunities for him to make a big play. I’ll say that Miller registers 40 yards on four catches with a red-zone look.

Defense: This is a good spot for the Pittsburgh defense. After facing prolific offenses in Indianapolis and Cincinnati, they should find themselves in a defensive battle with Chicago. Sure-handed Thomas Jones should run often, but Orton will throw enough to make Pittsburgh a viable play. Pittsburgh should blitz Orton to the tune of two or three sacks and two turnovers. James Farrior and Chris Hope are your most dependable IDP plays, as both have recorded over 80 tackles on the year. Troy Polamalu, despite his relative absence last week, remains a good play since he is capable of scoring fantasy points in several ways (69 tackles, three sacks, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries). Clark Haggans (seven sacks) and Joey Porter (six sacks) should each get a shot at Orton.

Sleeper

Charles Tillman: When people think of the productive mainstays in the Chicago secondary, they usually think of two people. Many remember Mike Brown, who was famous for returning interceptions for touchdowns in 2001 (during Chicago’s 13-3 dream season). In addition, others now recognize Nathan Vasher for heroics such as the 107-yard return against San Francisco. Charles Tillman is often the player that gets lost in the shuffle. He has played an important role for the Bears since graduating from Louisiana-Lafayette. He has continued to excel this season, serving as one of Chicago’s best cover men while recording 75 tackles (third on the team) and four interceptions (one for a TD). If he can help to lock up the passing game on Sunday, Pittsburgh could have a tough time producing points.

Matchups to Watch

Pittsburgh’s offensive line vs. Chicago’s defensive line: Marvel Smith looks to be out once again for the Steelers, so they will have to contain the Bears defensive line without him. Pittsburgh will need to run and pass effectively, and the offensive line will have to be the foundation if the offense is going to be productive. The Steelers will need to open up running holes while keeping Big Ben clean and healthy. The winner of the war at the line could come away with this victory.

Robbie Gould vs. Jeff Reed: Heinz Field is notoriously an extremely difficult place to kick. The stadium is often surrounded by swirling winds that leave kickers scratching their heads. In fact, no kicker has ever kicked a 50+ yard field goal in the history of Heinz Field. This is where Robbie Gould, a rookie kicker out of Penn State, could have trouble. Gould has been sound and efficient from under 40, completing 13 of his 14 kicks successfully. However, he struggles when he is presented with a longer field goal. He has only hit two of his six field goal attempts from 40 or more yards. Gould could have similar struggles on Sunday, so the Bears may have to get close to the end zone in order to put points on the board. Some would argue that Reed (five for ten from 40 or more yards) has not been much better. However, Reed is more used to these confines, and he has the experience advantage. If this game comes down to late field goals, one of these kickers could make the difference.

Prediction

Pittsburgh has actually struggled at Heinz Field this season, posting a mediocre 3-3 mark. However, expect the terrible towels to be waving during this one, as Pittsburgh’s fans realize just how important this game is to the team. The key to this game will be mistakes. Teams like Chicago thrive off of these mistakes, and they will turn them into points. In the last three games, Chicago’s longest touchdown drive has been one yard, so they will need the Steelers to turn the ball over. I think that the Steelers will be efficient enough to take this game at home. The Steelers’ will still have playoff aspirations after this game. Pittsburgh 16, Chicago 10.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

 

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