Spotlight Game: San Diego at Indianapolis

San Diego finally got a break from their torturous schedule last week. Instead of having to travel to the East Coast, it was Miami who had to travel across the country to play at their place. Only one problem: Miami came in and stunned San Diego 23-21, delivering a huge blow to the Chargers’ playoff chances. They now are tied with Pittsburgh for the last spot, but they will need Pittsburgh to stumble along the way if they are to have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. In order to sneak into the playoffs, San Diego’s first task is to travel to Indy to play the undefeated Colts. The Colts have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, but they are not sitting any of their big name players for this marquee game.

San Diego

Drew Brees: Brees has carried the load in the last couple of weeks as teams have focused on Tomlinson. Brees threw 52 passes last week during an attempted comeback at home against Miami. He shouldn’t have to throw as much today unless San Diego falls far behind. That scenario is a possibility, but I do not think that it is likely. Even with Tomlinson carrying the load on the ground, Brees will have to be nearly perfect to come away with a win here. Brees will throw to the tune of 235 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson owners are beginning to worry. After a 184-yard, three touchdown performance at Washington three weeks ago, Tomlinson has been relatively quiet. Tomlinson has not scored in two weeks, which is a monumental drought for him and a crushing blow to owners who need him for their playoff run. He has also been held to under 100 yards rushing in successive weeks against Oakland (a team that he ripped for 179 total yards and two touchdown in their first meeting) and Miami. The Colts are no slouch against the run, but I think that Tomlinson will recover today. In addition, Corey Simon, one of the Colts’ main run stoppers, should be out for this one. With Simon out, the Colts can be beaten up the middle, so Tomlinson should return to form today. Tomlinson goes for 120 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

San Diego WRs: McCardell has been a magician this season, appearing and disappearing while football fans wonder what he will do next. He seems absent during lengthy stretches of the game, only to make his presence felt when you least expect it. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, it is tough to predict his production from week to week. However, I think that Brees will have to throw often enough to make McCardell productive this week. He tends to be streaky, so perhaps he can continue his quality play after scoring last week. I’ll say that McCardell goes for 60 yards and a touchdown on five catches. Eric Parker has been serviceable (42 catches, 542 yards, three touchdowns), and he should see some balls as one of Brees’ main possession receivers. Parker should see 45 yards on a couple of grabs. Reche Caldwell (questionable-calf) will be relegated to backup duty. He should have 20 yards on two catches if he is able to go on Sunday.

Antonio Gates: Gates will register another 1000-yard season this year as the Chargers’ leading receiver. He has proven once again that he is one of, if not the top tight end in the game. He is obviously Brees’ favorite target, and he should go for his tenth touchdown of the year on Sunday. Expect 80 yards on six catches and a trip to pay dirt for Gates.

Defense: This is a defense that you should stay away from at all costs. In fact, they should be released because their last three matchups (at Indianapolis, at Kansas City, and Denver) do not bode well for this defense’s fantasy production. Manning and Co. simply do not make many mistakes. This defense should only produce a sack and a possibly a turnover. Donnie Edwards remains one of the more dependable defensive players in the league. He should be good for another 10 tackles this week as he tries to fill Edgerrin’s running lanes. There are not may other dependable fantasy picks here, but you could take a risk on rookie Shawne Merriman, who has posted 42 tackles and seven sacks on the year.

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning: Manning should have an easy go of it on Sunday afternoon. He faces the 27th ranked passing defense in the friendly confines of the RCA Dome. In the last three weeks, Manning has been in 2004 form, throwing for over 700 yards along with seven touchdowns and only one interception. He also took care of the Jaguars, his regular season nemesis, with 324 yards and two touchdowns last week. His owners should be smiling again after Sunday’s tilt. Look for a 300-yard, two touchdown performance for Manning against the desperate Chargers.

Edgerrin James: James may have a tough task ahead of him, as the Chargers boast the best run defense in the league. Coming into the week, however, James was second in the league with 1440 rushing yards (third after Barber’s performance on Saturday). James is on pace to come close to Jamal Anderson’s record for rushing attempts in one season (410), so this could be his last week of full duty. According to NFL.com, however, James wants to play out the season. “Rest? I’ll rest when I’m through playing football,” he said. “Right now, it’s just a groove that we’re in, and we just want to keep going.” It will be interesting to see what kind of duty James will receive in the last two games, but he should see a full workload today. He may start off slow, but the holes will open as Manning gets comfortable. James will go for 90 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

Indianapolis WRs: Same old story here. Start Wayne and Harrison. They have almost identical reception and yardage numbers, and both are well on their way to another 1000-yard season. Harrison (72 receptions, 992 yards, and 12 touchdowns) is the leading receiver and should produce as he does every week. Harrison will go for 100 yards and a touchdown against San Diego. Wayne (71 receptions, 943 yards, and five touchdowns) should also chip in with 80 yards and a score on six catches. Brandon Stokley will add another 40 yards to the effort.

Dallas Clark: Some expected Clark to develop into a top fantasy tight end this season. With 400 yards and three touchdowns on 31 catches, this development has yet to take place. Clark finds himself in a sea of offensive weapons, and he is the weapon of choice on an inconsistent basis. His only breakout game this year has been against Cincinnati, when he recorded 125 yards and a touchdown on six catches. However, since then, fellow tight end Bryan Fletcher has received more attention while Clark has been taken away from his brief spotlight. Until Clark demonstrates consistency, I wouldn’t insert him into your lineups. Expect only 30 yards on two or three grabs against the Chargers.

Defense: The Chargers will catch a break here. Robert Mathis (foot), Cato June (knee), and Corey Simon (foot) are expected to rest to recuperate from nagging injuries. Both June and Simon would probably have played if it were the playoffs. Therefore, the Colts are not a good play. The Chargers will score their share, especially with the Colts missing their second leading tackler (June), and their team leader in sacks (Mathis). I would only expect two sacks and a turnover from this unit. As for IDPs, sit Mathis, June, and Simon unless they are upgraded before game time. You should also lower your expectations of Dwight Freeney, since the Chargers can double him more frequently without Mathis around to stalk the quarterback. That leaves Gary Brackett (103 tackles) and Bob Sanders (79 tackles) as your most dependable fantasy starts.

Sleeper

Bryan Fletcher: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Brandon Stokley, and Dallas Clark. These are the names that we often think of when we hear about the potent Colts offense. It may be time to add another player to the list. Fletcher is not a household name by any means, but he is emerging as another tight end threat for the Colts. Fletcher had six catches in the first nine weeks of the season. In week 10 against Cincinnati, he recorded the first touchdown of his career. Since then, has become a viable red zone target. In the last three games, Fletcher has eight catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns (compared to Dallas Clark’s six catches for 70 yards and no touchdowns in that same span). Fletcher is not a fantasy option right now, but if he begins to get time alongside of Clark, he could see increased production in the playoffs and in the years to come.

Matchup to Watch

Edgerrin James vs. Chargers’ front seven: The Chargers rank first in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing under 80 yards per game. However, the Chargers rank 27th in pass defense, so something has to give. Manning could shred them in this game if they are not careful. The question is: how often will San Diego drop extra men into the secondary to help their porous pass defense? San Diego will have to pick who they want to contain. If they back into the secondary, James may run freely. So, if the Chargers can adjust properly and still find a way to contain James, they have a shot at not only ending the Colts’ dream season, but they also have a chance to renew their own dream season as well.

Prediction

This will be an interesting game. The Colts find themselves in a rare situation. With three games remaining, they have clinched the division and the number one seed in the playoffs. Despite this, we all know that they still have plenty to play for in these last three games. A win in each of these last three games will give the Colts the elusive 16-0 season. San Diego comes in experiencing a completely different situation. Considered by many to be one of the top teams in the league, San Diego is scrambling for their playoff lives after a disastrous loss against Miami last week. San Diego will be desperate, and that should make for a good game. If this game were in San Diego, I would give this one to the Chargers. However, as it stands, I like the Colts to win it on a late field goal. Indianapolis 30, San Diego 27

Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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