Spotlight Game: Cincinnati at Kansas City

The timing of this game is very interesting from many standpoints. Kansas City kept their playoff hopes alive by beating San Diego last week. However, they still need a miracle. They would have to win while Pittsburgh and San Diego would have to lose to Detroit and Denver respectively. However, Denver and San Diego play on Saturday, so there is a chance that Kansas City could be out of the race by the time this game kicks off. This could affect many of the complexities of the game. Who will play? What are these teams playing for? Does this game matter? I’ll do my best to answer these tough questions.

Cincinnati

Carson Palmer: Palmer is a risky play this week due to questions about his availability. Lewis has kept quiet about his status all week, but some new information is coming out. KFFL reported Friday that Mark Curnutte (of the Cincinnati Enquirer) reported that Palmer (groin) practiced Friday and is expected to play. Curnutte also stated that Marvin Lewis said that Palmer had practiced in 11-on-11 drills on both Wednesday and Thursday (despite other reports stating that he had not practiced until Friday). This is good news for owners looking to start Palmer this week. I would wait on more information before starting him, but this initial information is promising. If he plays, he could do very well against the Chiefs secondary. It is still possible that he could play only part of the game, but hopefully that information comes out before game time. Assuming Palmer plays the entire game, he could put up 250 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Rudi Johnson: Johnson has been on fire as the season winds down. Johnson tends to get stronger as the game (and season) goes on. In his last four games, Johnson has recorded 472 yards on 93 carries and five touchdowns (5.1 yards per carry during this time). With his performance down the stretch, he now has a legitimate shot at 1500 yards rushing. He is only 60 yards away from this elusive mark, and he should get enough touches to reach this number on Sunday. The Chiefs defense (9th in rushing defense) will be up to the task, so Rudi will have to earn these yards. Last week against San Diego, Tomlinson was held to just 49 yards on 15 carries. If Cincinnati doesn’t get behind, they will try to establish Johnson. Johnson will reach the 1500-yard milestone with a touchdown and 75-80 yards on 20-22 carries.

Cincinnati WRs: Like Rudi, Chad Johnson is chasing individual achievements of his own. With 1377 yards on 93 receptions this season, Johnson is eight grabs away from breaking Carl Pickens’ team record of 100 catches (set in 1996). Despite the Chiefs’ secondary weaknesses, Johnson will most likely be lined up against Patrick Surtain, who is one of the better corners in the league when he plays to his potential. Johnson should still find his way to a good amount of catches. I’ll say that he ties Pickens as he goes for 95 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. After coming just short last year, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has another chance for his first 1000-yard season. He is just 73 yards away from the mark, and he has a legitimate shot to do it against Kansas City. Housh will record seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Chris Henry has emerged as a solid option at the third wide receiver spot. He should add 40 yards to close out a productive rookie year.

Cincinnati TEs: Reggie Kelly is questionable for this tilt, but he practiced Friday and is expected to play. Either way, he shouldn’t see as much time. This will give the majority of the workload to Matt Schobel. Schobel should spend most of his time paving the way for Rudi Johnson. These tight ends are not fantasy options, and I would only expect about 20 yards of production between them.

Defense: This is not a defense that you want starting in your championship game. They have been valuable during the year because of their ability to cause turnovers, but they could be in for a rough go of it on Sunday. Expect only one sack and one turnover. For IDPs, keep in mind that Deltha O’Neal (knee) is doubtful and will most likely sit out in order to rest for the playoffs. Odell Thurman and Brian Simmons are viable plays at the linebacker spot with 92 and 79 tackles respectively. On the line, Justin Smith is the best play with 61 tackles and six sacks.

Kansas City

Trent Green: Green has been more consistent as of late. He delivered when it meant the most last week when he posted a mistake-free performance. His 207 yards passing and two touchdowns propelled the Chiefs into position to make a run at a possible playoff birth. Green is a good start this week, especially since he should play the entire game regardless of Kansas City’s position. With the possibility that several quarterbacks could be sitting this week, Green becomes an attractive option. The absence of Deltha O’Neal, perhaps Cincinnati’s best cover man, should also help Green’s cause. Green will go for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Larry Johnson: Johnson has had an unprecedented eight straight 100-yard rushing games. That trend shouldn’t stop as Cincinnati comes to town. Johnson has 1549 yards (with 17 touchdowns) this year while being the primary ball carrier for only eight games this season. He has amassed well over 1000 yards during this eight game streak. Look for him to be fed the ball consistently throughout this game regardless of whether or not they are still in the playoff hunt. Johnson will carry the ball 26 times for 125 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas City WRs: After a lackluster performance last week, Eddie Kennison is still 49 yards short of 1,000 for the season. He caught only two passes for 19 yards last week as he struggled with lingering knee problems, but he seems to have recovered from this injury. Green will hit Kennison four times for 50 yards. As of late, Green’s favorite wide receiver target has been Samie Parker. The speedy second year man out of Oregon is finally beginning to come into his own at the position. Parker should be able to shred the Cincinnati defense for a touchdown and 50 yards on five receptions. Dante Hall, with just under 400 yards receiving this year, could also figure into the receiving mix. He should add three catches and 25 yards to the effort.

Tony Gonzalez: Gonzo continues to disappoint with his lack of touchdowns, but he should finally see pay dirt in this one. With the absence of safety Madieu Williams, Cincinnati has been susceptible to giving up big plays to pass-catching tight ends. Heath Miller and Dallas Clark each had career games against Cincinnati. Gonzalez should have extra incentive this week because he is looking to break Stephone Paige’s team record of 83 straight games with a catch. Gonzalez should reach this milestone early in the game on his way to seven catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Defense: Like Cincinnati, Kansas City’s defense should not be inserted into any lineups this week. Even though they tend to turn up the intensity at home, Cincinnati’s offense is too potent for Kansas City to have a big defensive day. Look for two sacks and a turnover. Kawika Mitchell and Derrick Johnson continue to terrorize the opposition in the middle of the field. Each of these players is nearing 100 tackles, and they should combine for 18-20 tackles in this game. Kansas City’s other IDP option can be found on the defensive line, where Jared Allen has recorded 50 tackles and 11 sacks on the year.

Sleeper

Jon Kitna: Palmer’s status for Sunday’s game is still up in the air. Palmer still has nagging groin problems, so there is reason to believe that Kitna could possibly see some of the workload. Kitna has shown to be a steady veteran and is widely considered to be one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Many forget that Kitna began the resurrection of Cincinnati football. His amazing year in 2003 propelled the Bengals to an unprecedented 8-8 mark. He filled in admirably when the Bengals were waiting for Palmer to mature. If he plays on Sunday, he could be the unlikely savior for a fantasy team that is unfortunate enough to play their championship game in week 17. I would not play him unless he is announced as the primary QB, but if he plays, he could put up very respectable numbers against the suspect Chiefs secondary.

Matchup to Watch

Larry Johnson vs. Cincinnati’s front seven: Cincinnati’s young front seven has started to improve as this season has wore on. If they add more defensive talent and continue through the maturation process, you could see a premier defensive in a couple of years. However, they are still inconsistent and they often struggle to stop the run. For example, they held the fading Willis McGahee to just 66 yards on 23 carries last week. However, they have allowed the struggling Jamal Lewis to gain 113 yards on 23 carries earlier in the year. They have risen to 17th in the league in rushing, but they will have to contain Larry Johnson to come away with a victory.

Prediction

The result of this game will depend on several factors. Some of these factors include the state of Kansas City’s playoff chances as well as the availability of Carson Palmer. Kansas City could be fighting for a spot, and Cincinnati is fighting for seeding. Cincinnati is now slated as a number three seed (projected to play Pittsburgh in the first round). A Cincinnati loss and a New England win would drop Cincinnati to a number four seed, but this could create an arguably better first round matchup against Jacksonville. However, this could also mean that they could potentially encounter the Indianapolis Colts one round earlier. Many think that Cincinnati could actually benefit from losing this game, but I think that is debatable. There are many unknown elements to this game, but I think the matchup ultimately favors Kansas City. Not only could the game mean a playoff spot, but also they are impeccable at Arrowhead. Combine this with the fact that several Cincinnati regulars (Carson Palmer, Willie Anderson, Deltha O’Neal, etc) could be out. Cincinnati has actually played very well on the road, but they will be entering a hostile environment when they walk into Arrowhead. In the end, Kansas City will still need a miracle, but they should hold up their end of the bargain. Kansas City 27, Cincinnati 21

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

 
Dave McGrath is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Dave in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of dave416.
 

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