Spotlight Game: New England at Carolina

Each week, Dave presents a preview of the week’s most interesting contests from a fantasy perspective, offering his take on player performances, potential sleepers and, of course, the game’s outcome. This week, the focus is on the Sunday afternoon matchup between the defending champion New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers, two teams who were picked by many pundits to meet in Super Bowl XL.

New England

Tom Brady: Brady, a very underrated fantasy option at times, has always been a reliable QB. That didn’t change last week against Oakland, where he was nearly perfect. He threw for over 300 yards and two scores, and his offensive line managed to keep him clean throughout the contest. Brady will have yet another productive day, but the Panthers should be able to get some pressure on the outside, something that the Raiders failed to accomplish. The Patriots’ passer will once again spread the wealth to the tune of 240 yards, 1-2 TDs, and an interception.

Corey Dillon: Last week, Dillon did not disappoint those who drafted him, but his optimistic owners know in the back of their minds that Dillon looked awfully sluggish out of the gate. His paltry 63 yards on 23 carries were forgotten due to the two TDs and 30 yards receiving that he contributed to the cause. If Dillon and the offensive line have a tough time working cohesively, it could be a long day for the RB, despite the fact that Carolina defensive tackle Kris Jenkins is out. While I think Corey will ultimately be fine this year, I expect him to continue to struggle finding his niche in the offense this week. Fifty yards on 15-17 carries is my prediction. He should be able to grab another 15-20 through the passing game along with a few chances to punch the ball in near the end zone.

New England WRs: Once again, predicting which Patriot WR will break out from week to week looks to be a total crapshoot. Your best bet would be the most consistent of the corps, Deion Branch. Branch started his year with 99 yards and a TD in the season opener against the Raiders. I see no reason why he can not come up with another 80 yards and a TD in this one. Troy Brown, who was cut in training camp only to be resigned by New England, actually had 51 yards on six catches last weekend. Do not expect those numbers every week, however, since Brown’s position on the team is mostly that of a role player and a veteran leader. Brown will probably go for only 20 yards this Sunday. The least predictable of the bunch, David Givens, had just 30 yards against the Raiders, but he could have a big game at any time. He should do his part against the Panthers, putting up 50 yards along with some red zone tries.

New England TEs: Some considered Ben Watson to be a sleeper pick at TE this season. So far, his supporters have been awarded. While Watson is listed second on the depth chart to Daniel Graham, the Patriots use two-TE sets to utilize them both. And if week 1 is any indication, Brady would rather throw to Watson than take aim at Graham. Watson had over 50 receiving yards last Sunday, while Graham was held to a measly 17. I do not expect a huge game from either this week, however, and better starts can definitely be found elsewhere. I’ll say each TE gets three catches for 25 yards.

Defense: The Patriots’ team defense, like Carolina’s, is usually an adequate play every week of the year. Yet this is a rare case in which I would stay away from them. Not only is Carolina at home looking to avenge week 1’s loss, but the Pats also have a small village of defensive players listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (knee), defensive ends Jarvis Green (shoulder) and Richard Seymour (thigh), cornerbacks Tyrone Poole (ankle), Chad Scott (shoulder), and Duane Starks (thigh), and finally safety James Sanders (ankle) are all listed as questionable on the injury report. This leaves very few safe starts for those of you with Patriot defenders on your team. Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, and Chad Brown will all get their tackles and are viable plays. If you plan on using players like Richard Seymour, just make sure that you check for their updated status when game time nears.

Carolina

Jake Delhomme: Delhomme was a disappointment last week despite posting over 200 passing and a touchdown. His two interceptions against an average Saints pass defense were a cause for concern. Delhomme gets yet another chance at home this week, and he should be able to take advantage this time. The Patriots’ defense is no longer bulletproof against the pass, and Delhomme will look to find the seams. I like Delhomme to recuperate in this game after the unexpected home loss in week 1. Jake’s final numbers should read something like 20/30 for 225 yards, and one to two TDs.

Stephen Davis/Deshaun Foster: This two-headed rushing attack frustrated fantasy owners trying to make lineup decisions in week 1, but both made the most of their opportunities. Davis had 81 yards and a TD on only 13 carries (for an average of 6.2 yards per carry), while Foster added 56 total yards on only 12 total touches. That being said, neither of these backs are attractive fantasy options this week, and should be avoided – unless you are short at RB or are plagued with injuries. If you start one, go with Davis, whose impressive performance last week may earn him more touches. While Foster may see ten or fewer carries, I expect Carolina to utilize him more in the passing game. I look for Smith to have 75 yards and a TD on 20 carries, and I see Foster grabbing 30-40 rushing and another 30-40 through the air.

Carolina WRs: Steve Smith was a pleasant surprise in week 1, catching eight balls for 138 yards and a TD in his first game back from the season-ending injury he suffered last year. Unfortunately, that was the one and only bright spot for Carolina at WR. In fact, only one other Carolina WR caught a ball all day, and that was “sleeper” Keary Colbert, who posted an eye-popping 11 yards on two catches. However, with the focus on Smith, Colbert will need to step up this week. Therefore, look for him to awake from his week 1 coma to post 60-75 yards on six or seven catches. He should get some looks in the red zone as well. Smith should still get the majority of the Delhomme’s attention, however, and will come out with yet another solid game: eight grabs for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Kris Mangum: Mangum really is not an option in any league. There should be more valuable tight ends on the waiver wire. Mangum had two grabs for 22 yards last week, but the reality is that Delhomme doesn’t look toward the tight end position often, and the Panthers principally use their TEs in blocking schemes. I wouldn’t even expect a repeat of last week’s performance. I’ll give Mangum a catch for 10 yards.

Defense: The Carolina team defense disappointed many owners last week when they failed to register any turnovers against mistake-prone Aaron Brooks and the New Orleans Saints. I would not recommend starting them this week either, as the Patriots’ offense is efficient and at times seems almost immune to mistakes. I’ll give the team a sack and a turnover, but do not expect much more. As for the individual players, Julius Peppers gets the nod, as he could easily have five or six tackles along with some pressure on Brady. You could also take a calculated gamble on Chris Gamble or Dan Morgan to produce. Both should be good for five tackles, and you could look for an interception from Gamble or a sack from Morgan, but don’t bet on it. Play these guys only if you are desperate.

Sleeper

Will Witherspoon: This NFL veteran has started all four years he has been in the league. He has improved his numbers every year, including a 103 tackle, four interception performance last season. In week one against New Orleans, he registered 12 tackles, by far the most on the team. He remains a relative unknown in many IDP circles, but he is a solid start again this week, as he will be responsible for plugging Corey Dillon’s running lanes. There is no reason why Witherspoon can not hit the 10 tackle mark against New England on Sunday.

Prediction

Let’s face it, Carolina is in some trouble here. A loss in this contest would drop them to 0-2 with two home defeats. In addition, news came out after the New Orleans game that All-Pro DT Kris Jenkins was indeed lost for the season. However, the fact is that the Panthers are a better team than they showed last week. After all, they won six of their last eight last year with Jenkins, Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, and DeShaun Foster hurt. Their defense is still one that can pressure the QB and force turnovers. New England, while they are the defending champs and a viable Super Bowl contender this year, showed a couple chinks in the armor against the Raiders (who wouldn’t after some of the losses they sustained?). Either way, New England should have no problem gaining a playoff birth this year, and the fact is that Carolina simply needs this game more right now. Call me crazy, but I like an upset here. Carolina 23, New England 20.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.