Spotlight Game: New England at Pittsburgh

New England’s grueling early season schedule continues this weekend at Heinz Field. Several streaks are on the line in this game, including Ben Roethlisberger’s 16-0 regular season record and New England’s streak of not losing consecutive games since 2002. One of these streaks will be broken on Sunday, and if the Steelers walk away winners, New England will walk away with a paltry 1-2 record.

New England

Tom Brady: Brady, unlike Roethlisberger, has gone through the air often thus far this year, partially due to an inept running game. If Corey Dillon is again ineffective against the Steelers, Brady will have to utilize the pass to win. In doing so, he will put up respectable fantasy numbers in this tilt. He will spread it around to the tune of 22-34 for 225 yards, two TDs, and an interception.

Corey Dillon: Dillon has looked lackluster this season, to say the least. He is averaging a mere 2.7 yards per carry on 37 rushes this year (99 rushing yards total). Dillon should be in for another rough game on Sunday. I would recommend sitting him here if you have another viable option at RB. New England may try to run early to try to control the clock, but they will find out quickly that Pittsburgh’s defense is up to this challenge. Dillon will get his carries on Sunday, but he will not get his yards. He will register just 60-65 yards on 20 carries.

New England WRs: As I seem to say every week in this spot, Deion Branch is the only dependable play and therefore the only fantasy play that makes sense here. Branch will go for another 80 yards and a touchdown. Troy Brown and David Givens have both produced admirably so far this year, but they too inconsistent to rely on every week. Use one of these players only if you are desperate for a bye week fill-in. I look for Givens to have about 60 yards with a red zone look or two, while Brown should largely be kept in check by the Steelers secondary. Brown will go for only 25-30 on Sunday afternoon.

New England TEs: New England’s tight end situation is too muddy to gamble on right now. Daniel Graham was considered a sleeper tight end coming into the year, but he has yet to make much of an impact. He has a score, but only two total catches for 18 yards. Ben Watson, on the other hand, has three grabs for 62 yards. Do not play either of these guys until one of them proves himself. If you are desperate, start Graham, since Brady seems to have an eye for him in the red zone. Watson should have 25 yards on a pair of catches, while Graham will have 20 yards on two catches with some red zone looks.

Defense: New England will continue to be a run-of-the-mill defensive start until they finish their tough early season schedule. However, I happen to like them in this matchup, especially after the Carolina debacle last week. Look for one to two turnovers combined with two sacks. New England has yet to have a huge impact fantasy player emerge on defense thus far, but they do offer a couple of possible starts. Rodney Harrison should account for six total tackles, and he may have a shot at a sack if the Patriots decide to employ the safety blitz. In the front seven, Richard Seymour is the only play that I would be comfortable with in this spot. Chad Brown, Monty Beisel, and Mike Vrabel all will get their tackles, but there should be better options for the fantasy owners looking for productive IDPs.

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger: In this game, Roethlisberger squares off against the only team that he has ever lost to in his short career. Big Ben has thrown only 32 times thus far this season, but I expect him to nearly match that number on Sunday. After the Patriots react initially to Parker, Big Ben will have to put it up to lead his team to victory. Roethlisberger is an average start this week, but whatever his owners choose to do, they should at least see more tosses from him. Big Ben will go 17-29 for 175-200 yards, a TD, and an interception.

Willie Parker: Do not believe the hype surrounding Parker going into this matchup. After viewing Stephen Davis’ three-TD performance against New England last week, many were salivating at the thought of Parker’s possible numbers against the defending champs. Some people forget that while Davis had three TDs, he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry on 25 tries. In addition, Parker is the complete opposite of Davis, and will not get the chances to pound the ball in the end zone as often. Verron Haynes and possibly even Duce Staley (probable – knee) could handle the bulk of the goal-line duties this Sunday (not to mention that Staley may spell Parker at times). Anyone rushing to throw “Fast Willie” into their lineups should slow down and consider the matchup. It is tough to ignore Parker’s 272 yards so far this season, but this is a situation where I would consider sitting him. Parker will get his carries, but he will not be as productive as some are expecting. Parker will most likely grab 70 yards on 18-22 carries, but the Patriots will keep him out of the end zone. If you have a backup who is more likely to hit pay dirt, plug him in for Parker.

Pittsburgh WRs: Of course, Hines Ward is a viable start in this situation. His consistency over the years warrants a start against any opponent. Ward will not put up a blockbuster game, but he will please his owners with 70 yards on seven catches, including a TD. On the other side of the coin, Antwaan Randle El is a more inconsistent option. He has started the year off well, registering 164 yards on five catches in the first two weeks of the year. Randle El can break one at any time, but he can also disappear for games on end. I wouldn’t recommend starting him in this situation if you have a more dependable backup. Look for Randle El to have about 50 yards receiving along with some bonus punt return yardage for his owners.

Heath Miller/Jerame Tuman: Neither of these players are viable options until one steps up. Miller, a first-round draft choice out of Virginia, was highly touted and expected to produce this year. He will develop as the year progresses, but he has yet to become a factor on offense, catching only one ball for three yards and a TD in his first two professional appearances. Tuman is basically a blocking TE, but he has received more looks than Miller as of late. The two may combine for 20-30 yard receiving, but neither are worth looking at until Miller develops down the road.

Defense: Pittsburgh is a top-tier defense in this league, but the Steelers are a middle-of-the-road play this week due to the fact that Brady is not usually mistake-prone. They will get an interception along with one or two sacks. If you are looking for a solid IDP start, look no further than James Farrior and Joey Porter at the LB spot. Farrior is a tackle machine (16 tackles in two games), and Porter is always all over the field (8 tackles, two sacks, and a fumble recovery). In the secondary, young Troy Polamalu is a good play (nine tackles, three sacks, and an interception), as is Ike Taylor (14 tackles). Both Farrior and Taylor should have between five and seven tackles, and Porter could get Pittsburgh’s lone sack. Lastly, Polamalu would be the beneficiary if Brady makes a mistake.

Sleeper

Cedrick Wilson: Wilson, a former San Francisco 49ers castoff, was given a second chance by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the off-season. Upon his arrival in the Steel City, Wilson impressed the staff immediately and was able to earn the #3 WR spot. So far this year, Wilson has functioned as Big Ben’s big play receiver. Despite having only four catches, Wilson is averaging over 25 yards per grab and is making the most of his limited opportunities. Roethlisberger may look to Wilson downfield more than once in this game. Wilson is still a role player, so he is not a reliable option yet, but he could be down the road if he continues to develop.

Prediction

I expect this one to be more of a defensive showdown rather than a show of offensive fireworks. Many players that owners would usually put in their lineups are shaky plays in this game. As with many of the spotlight games, this game seems to be a toss-up. Many would give the advantage to Pittsburgh at home, but I foresee the Patriots coming to play after their loss last week at Carolina. Don’t be surprised if both Jeff Reed and Adam Vinatieri are very busy on Sunday. I’ll take the Patriots in a barnburner. New England 20, Pittsburgh 16.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.