Spotlight Game: New York Giants at Dallas

The NFC East, generally known for its futility (except for the Eagles’ dominance) over the past few years, has suddenly become the most competitive division through the first five weeks of this young season. The division has a combined 12-6 record, and Philadelphia and Dallas are tied for last … each with a 3-2 record. This sets up an important division matchup where the first and last place teams are separated by a mere half game. The Giants come off a bye week after coasting to a 44-24 win over the Rams at home, while Dallas comes off an unexpected 33-10 lambasting of the once untouchable Eagles.

New York Giants

Eli Manning: Manning is a definite start here in all situations. There really is no reason why Manning shouldn’t continue to excel in this tilt. The only real concern is that Eli is only completing about 54% of his passes, which is too low for an NFL quarterback. No analysis needed in this spot; enter him in your lineup and sleep easy. Eli should torch the ‘Boys for 280 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Tiki Barber: Barber could be the one fantasy casualty in this game. Dallas is rather solid against the run (tenth in the league), and Eli Manning has been tossing the ball more and more. Against an inconsistent pass defense, Barber could be the odd man out if he gets a reduction in carries. Luckily, his fantasy owners shouldn’t have to worry, since he can catch plenty of balls running routes out of the backfield. Barber only has six catches this year, but expect that to change on Sunday. Manning will look for him if Dallas brings any blitz packages. Barber will have 65-70 yards on 18 carries and a TD. He will add another 40-50 receiving on four or five catches from Manning.

New York WRs: In Pittsburgh, Plaxico Burress was an underachieving receiver who left a world of potential untapped. So far this year, things have changed. Through four games, Burress is averaging 99 yards and a TD per contest. However, in his two games on the road, Burress’ production has dropped off, registering only 110 yards and a TD in these games. That being said, Plaxico still has the potential to take advantage of a favorable matchup in this spot. Burress makes a risky start, but he should put up about 80 yards receiving. The Giants lack an explosive #2 threat, but veteran Amani Toomer has always been serviceable. He has nine grabs for over 130 yards on the year, and has already surpassed his TD total for last year with one. I like him to break out in this game as you could see Manning look for his possession receivers over the middle. Look for 70 yards on six catches and a score.

Jeremy Shockey: Shockey is starting to fulfill his potential as a pass-catching tight end. He has 251 yards and two touchdowns in four games this year. Dallas may key on him and cover him with a corner (especially with the possibility that Dat Nguyen, listed as questionable, will be out for this game), but Shockey will still get his yards. However, I have a feeling that Manning will not target him as much because of this possible defensive change. Shockey remains an above-average play at the tight end position. Six catches for 60 yards and a couple of red zone looks should be accurate.

Defense: The Giants defense shouldn’t be considered on the road against an efficient offensive team such as the Cowboys. Actually, their team defense should be benched unless they face an inept offensive squad. They will have a sack and a turnover on Sunday. For the leagues with IDPs, Michael Strahan is a viable option on the defensive line. He has rebounded from a lackluster year in 2004 with 17 tackles and 3.5 sacks through four games this season. He is the best option if you are looking for a productive Giant on defense on Sunday afternoon. Strahan should be the only player that is usable for IDP leagues. Looking beyond the line, Antonio Pierce at LB and Gibril Wilson at safety each have 31 total tackles, but they need to make marks in other statistical categories before owners can consider them on a regular basis.

Dallas

Drew Bledsoe: Bledsoe will be taking to the air for the majority of this game. Bledsoe is another player in this game that you should throw into your lineup without any worry. Unlike the previous couple of years, Bledsoe seems to have a connection with his receivers, especially Terry Glenn, who is heading toward a career year after reuniting with the quarterback. He has the options of stretching the field with Glenn and Patrick Crayton or working the middle with Jason Witten and Keyshawn Johnson. With all of these veteran weapons, Bledsoe should go for 290 yards and at least two scores, along with an interception.

Dallas RBs: Julius Jones is listed as questionable this week, and it looks like Bill Parcells has him as a game-time decision. However, according to the Dallas Morning News, Parcells has said that he has never played a running back that didn’t practice during the week. Jones has failed to practice this week. It looks like he is leaning towards not playing him, so it would probably be smart for owners to sit him unless we get definitive word before game time. If Jones can not go, speedy Tyson Thompson will see the bulk of the carries while Anthony Thomas will play clean-up duty. Thomas will get few carries, however, and will be used primarily to block and guard against blitzes. Thompson had 20 carries for 75 yards after replacing Jones against the Eagles last week, and I would expect a similar amount of carries for him in this game. The Giants are a middle-of-the-road team against the run, so he may see some yards. Do not start Thompson unless you are desperate, however, as he probably will not see a huge amount of red zone carries. Assuming Jones can not go, I’ll give Thompson 60-72 yards on 15-19 carries. Anthony Thomas will add 15 yards on five carries, but he is the one who would most likely get the goal-line tries.

Dallas WRs: Of course, Terry Glenn is an automatic play until he cools down. Glenn, a receiver not even drafted in some circles, has exploded onto the scene with 518 yards and three touchdowns this season. He should continue his productive play against a suspect secondary, so those who have him in the lineup will be rewarded. Glenn should coast to the century mark while recording a score. Keyshawn Johnson has also proved valuable with his three scores, but he lacks the big-play potential that fantasy owners desire. He does have a respectable 228 yards receiving, however, but he shouldn’t play unless you are looking for a bye-week filler. Johnson should register 60 yards with a red-zone look. Patrick Crayton, who has been a pleasant surprise at certain junctures this season, is simply too unpredictable to even think about. He represents big-play potential, but he has to learn to run shorter routes more effectively in order to put up consistent numbers. Crayton should only have 30 yards in this situation.

Jason Witten: After being practically non-existent for the first two games of the year, Witten has had 18 grabs or over 200 yards in his last three games combined. Witten, like Shockey, is beginning to find his stride and is on the brink of establishing himself as a top five fantasy tight end. Witten should hit pay dirt for the second time this year on Sunday. I like Dallas’ TE to have 70 yards and a score.

Defense: This Dallas team defense is worth a play in the right situation, but not when they come up against the highest-scoring offense in the league. Sit this unit, as three sacks and a turnover are the most that you can hope for. Dallas has no consistent point producers in the IDP field, but your best bet would be safety Roy Williams, who has 27 total tackles along with 2.5 sacks so far this season. A sleeper in this spot would be DeMarcus Ware, who is seeing an increase in his playing time every week. The rookie first-rounder out of Troy State has impressed the coaching staff and is working his way into the starting lineup. As of now, Ware leads the team with three sacks, but he only has 13 total tackles. Therefore, Ware doesn’t have the consistency to play just yet, but keep an eye on him as the season progresses.

Sleeper

Brandon Jacobs: Jacobs is in his first year out of Northern Illinois, and he is a big, bruising back who complements Tiki Barber nicely. He brings back the days of the thunder/lightning combination (although it didn’t work out well with Ron Dayne). Of course, Jacobs will not see a consistent number of carries while he backs up Tiki, but he is a dependable back who can pound the ball in short yardage situations and can wear down defenses as the Giants use him to change the pace. He has 12 carries for 60 yards this year through four games, but he has two TDs and has proved useful in the red zone. Jacobs’ role in this game will be restricted to short-yardage and goal-line situations. If Jacobs can consistently keep the chains moving on third and short, the Giants can keep their offense on the field and take the Cowboys fans out of the game.

Matchup to Watch

Eli Manning and Drew Bledsoe vs. the secondaries: This game has all the makings of a shootout. With Eli Manning coming into his own and Drew Bledsoe looking like his old self, the ball could be in the air all afternoon. The Giants boast the ninth-best passing attack in the league (237.3 yards per game), while Dallas holds the seventh spot (255.4 ypg). On the other hand, the Giants are 31st in passing defense, allowing a whopping 322 yards per game. Dallas is a respectable 16th in passing defense, but they have been very inconsistent (the Redskins game comes to mind) and have had the tendency to give up big plays. They will face the highest-scoring offense in the league on Sunday. I think that the secondary that makes the greatest impact will have control over the game and will ultimately come out of this game victorious.

Prediction

In a tough divisional game like this one, it is often smart to lean towards the home team. However, I like the Giants here coming off their bye, as they had a week to watch the revamped Dallas team. Also, although they have a horrid pass defense, I expect them to drop seven or eight into the passing lanes in many situations to help their secondary out (this will happen more if Julius Jones is does not play). This falls into the category of yet another toss-up game. I’ll take the G-Men in a high-scoring tilt. New York 31, Dallas 27.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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