Spotlight Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Cincinnati is perfect at home so far this season; Pittsburgh hasn’t lost yet on the road. One of these streaks will end on Sunday when the Steelers head to Cincinnati in a battle of the top two teams in the AFC North. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returns to action for the Steelers after missing last week’s loss to the Jaguars, but will Big Ben’s presence be enough to push Pittsburgh to a win over their red-hot division rivals? And equally importantly, which players in this matchup are worth a fantasy start?

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger: There is no doubt that the Steelers are going to run often in this game. That means that Big Ben may not be a smart play this week. The health of his wide receivers is also in question. Although Hines Ward has insisted he will play, Antwaan Randle El’s status is still in question. Randle El is important to the team both as a #2 WR and as a dangerous punt returner, so his status is critical to Roethlisberger’s success. I have seen no definitive word on Randle El’s status yet, so we will probably have to wait until Sunday morning to find out. If Randle El is out, Roethlisberger will have to work with Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan at the #2 and #3 WR spots (Morgan would most likely take over returning duties as well). Big Ben has been relatively mistake-free this year, but his lack of opportunities have soured many fantasy starts. Both of these trends should continue this week. Big Ben will go 16/25 for 180 yards, a TD, and a turnover.

Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis: The dreaded running-back-by-committee approach (RBBC) comes into play here, and it frustrated both Parker and Bettis owners last week in the Steelers’ loss to Jacksonville. However, this is a spot where I would be gun shy about benching either of them. Parker should get his yards, and Bettis has a great track record against Cincinnati. In addition, with Cincinnati’s weak run defense, both players could get a workload that rivals that of a feature RB. I see Parker chalking up about 80 yards on 22 carries, while Bettis should get about 45 yards and a short-yardage TD on 12 or 13 carries.

Pittsburgh WRs: Hines Ward is expected to make his return on Sunday, and it should be amidst constant double coverage. The Bengals will key on Ward in passing situations (especially if Randle El can not play). Ward will still get his yards, but he is not a great play this week. He should have only 65 yards with a red-zone look. I will not speculate on Randle El’s statistics at this point, but whether he plays or not, Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan will see more time. Wilson could a sleeper here, and while I think he will only put up about 40 yards, Roethlisberger could look for him downfield a couple of times to stretch the field. Morgan shouldn’t get much in the way of catches (maybe one or two), but he’ll do the majority of his work on special teams.

Heath Miller: Miller has picked his game up significantly as of late, totaling over 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns over his last two outings. Big Ben has looked for him more and more near the goal line. For now, Miller can be used as a quality bye-week filler, but he could be starting on many fantasy teams soon if he keeps up his production. Miller’s production this week hinges somewhat on Randle El’s availability. If he is out, Big Ben could lean on Miller to help get the job done, allowing the tight enb to register 50 yards and a red-zone look. If he is in, Miller’s totals will probably drop.

Defense: Pittsburgh’s defense is not an option on the road against one of the more proficient and mistake-free offenses in the NFL. The Steelers will blitz, but should only break through with about two sacks against Cincinnati’s veteran offensive line. Pittsburgh’s most valuable IDPs can be found in the front seven. James Farrior and Joey Porter are the players to plug in. Farrior has always been a tackling machine, and this year is no different. He has 47 tackles; so start him for consistent tackle and fantasy numbers. Porter is a more risky start, but he registered 8 of his 20 total tackles last week against Jacksonville, and he leads the team with four sacks.

Cincinnati

Carson Palmer: Palmer faces one of his tougher challenges so far this year, but I see no reason why he will not produce. Continue to start him against any defense until he cools off. Also, with Pittsburgh’s ability to stop the run, Palmer should take to the air early and often in this game. He been stellar all year, completing over 70% of his passes and leading the league in TD throws with 13, so he is a must every week against any team. He is also trying to break Peyton Manning’s record of nine straight games with a passer rating of 100 or better. Palmer will go 23/37 for 240 yards, two TDs, and his third interception of the year.

Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry: Another RBBC looms for fantasy owners, in which Chris Perry has been getting 30-40% of the touches. Both have still been productive in this system, but both should stay on your bench this week as long as you have another viable option. The Steelers are awfully stingy against the run, allowing only 89.8 yards per game on the ground (sixth in the league). If you start either of these backs, I would actually insert Perry, who leads NFL RBs with 27 catches on the year (on pace for over 60 grabs). Perry could make up for his lack of carries when Palmer looks for him during Steeler blitzes. I like Rudi to run 17-18 times for 60-65 yards, and he will only have a chance to score in goal-line situations. Perry should have about 8-10 carries for 25-35 yards, but he should add another 40-50 yards on four to seven catches.

Cincinnati WRs: Owners should expect a little less than usual from Chad in this game. The Pittsburgh defense has yet to give up a TD to an opposing team’s #1 receiver (Drew Bennett had the best outing for #1’s against Pittsburgh with 79 yards receiving). All that said, however, Johnson is probably the toughest test for the Steelers thus far this year, and he will hold his own from this defense. I’ll say that he is held to 70 yards on 7 catches, but he should reach the end zone. The coverage packages that will be thrown at Johnson will hinge on whether or not TJ Houshmandzadeh makes it back for the game. Housh thinks he can play, but Marvin Lewis has made it clear that he will likely wait until game time to decide his fate. If he plays, I wouldn’t expect a huge game from him (as he obviously is not fully recovered), but he could help draw some defenders off of Johnson. If Houshmandzadeh is out, Chris Henry could be a beneficiary of the coverage devoted to Johnson. Despite an off-week last week, I think that Henry could have 60-80 yards and a red-zone look in this game. If Houshmandzadeh does play in this game, however, I would downgrade Henry’s statistics.

Matt Schobel: Schobel is not a viable starter until he shows some consistency in catching the ball. He is sometimes used on passing downs, but he is often used as a blocking tight end as well. He has 88 yards on eight catches and one TD this year, so he is not even a bye-week filler until further notice. Palmer should find him twice for about 15 yards on Sunday.

Defense: Many in the fantasy world have jumped on Cincinnati’s defense early in the year because of their penchant to cause turnovers. However, this is a game to sit them. This will most likely not be an offensive shootout, but Pittsburgh will not make many mistakes with Ben at the helm. Expect only a turnover and a sack or two. Cincinnati does not offer that much in the way of IDPs, but there are some sleepers there. In the front seven, Odell Thurman leads the team with 32 total tackles, and he also has added a sack, a fumble recovery, and two interceptions (one of which he returned for a TD). In the secondary, Deltha O’Neal is your best bet, as he has 28 total tackles and four interceptions on the year.

Sleeper

Kevin Walter: Walter is often lost in the wide receiver shuffle in Cincinnati, but he plays an important role on the team. Palmer seems to trust him, and is not afraid to throw to him in big situations. With Houshmandzadeh out and Henry well-covered last week in Tennessee, Walter stepped up big with 65 yards on four grabs en route to a 31-23 win. Walter is not a household fantasy name by any means, and he will not be owned in many leagues, but he is important to this team. If Housh is once again out and Henry has problems getting open, do not be surprised if you hear his name called a couple of times. In addition, Walter is arguably the most valuable special teams player on the team, so he could prove important in coverage, especially if Randle El plays.

Matchup to Watch

Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis vs. Cincinnati’s front seven: Parker has the blazing speed, and Bettis has the power (not to mention that Cincinnati usually makes Bettis look like he is 25 years old again). This will be the deciding factor in the game. There is no doubt that the Steelers will get their yards, but can Cincinnati contain the running game? Cincinnati has given up around five yards per carry this year, but that has yet to hurt them (with the notable exception of the Jacksonville game) because they have jumped out to early leads. If Cincy can again jump out early and/or force Roethlisberger to beat them by containing the run, Cincinnati will be in a position to win this game.

Prediction

Many are billing this as the battle for the AFC North crown, but I would temper that hype a little bit. The fact is that we are only in week 7, and divisional titles are not decided at this point. I think that this is a game about mindsets. Pittsburgh will go into this game with a sense that they are a desperate team being backed into a corner. The Bengals view this game as a chance to establish themselves as an NFL powerhouse for years to come. After two games in a row on the road, Cincinnati will get to play in the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium, where they are 2-0 this season. On the other hand, the Steelers have won nine in a row on the road, tying a team record. However, I like Cincinnati in this game because Palmer should be able to do just enough against the Pittsburgh secondary to win. Make no mistake about it: This game is important, but it does not determine the AFC North champion. Cincinnati 20 Pittsburgh 17.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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