Spotlight Game: Kansas City at San Diego

San Diego has certainly been a part of several important games already this season. The reason for this is that they have only played one team with a losing record thus far this year (Oakland). The trend continues on Sunday when Kansas City comes to town. The well-rested Chiefs got an extra two days to prepare for this divisional clash when Hurricane Wilma forced them to play Miami on Friday. This game will be nothing new for the Chargers who, thanks to the schedule makers, have made a habit of facing teams with extra time to prepare for them. The Chargers have no time to complain, however, since this game is a must-win for them. There is no doubt that they could be a playoff-caliber team in the AFC, but they cannot afford to fall to 3-5.

Kansas City

Trent Green: Many have been waiting for Green to break out this season, and this may be the game that he puts up some big numbers. San Diego has the second-ranked rush defense in the league, but they rank near the bottom in pass defense, so do not be surprised if Kansas City airs it out a little more than usual in this contest, especially if they are behind late in the game. Green has not been making mistakes this year (he has thrown only three interceptions), but owners have been disappointed with his lack of touchdown production (even though he is averaging over 200 yards passing per game, he has only four touchdowns in six games). Green is a must-start this week. Chalk him down for 300 yards passing, two TDs, and an interception.

Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson: Holmes and Johnson have split the carries over the last two games, but Priest is still the beneficiary of the receptions. Priest has been human on the ground this year, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Also, he has not rushed for 100 yards or more in any of his last seven games. The upstart Larry Johnson, on the other hand, has been very impressive, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (on about 35 fewer attempts). Priest is the better start in this game, however, due to the amount of attention that Green gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs will still run even though San Diego is second in the league in run defense. The two-headed running back scheme should keep the Chargers guessing enough for Holmes and Johnson to be productive. Holmes should get about 17 carries for 60 yards along with six or seven catches for 60 yards and a TD. Johnson should be good for 75 yards and a TD on 17 tries.

Kansas City WRs: Eddie Kennison is your only real option here. He is the only Kansas City wide receiver that has consistently put up quality yardage numbers. He has a tough time finding his way to pay dirt (one TD this year), so many owners have been afraid to put him in their lineups. Against a secondary as weak as San Diego’s, Kennison makes a fairly safe play. I wouldn’t expect a monster game, but start Kennison if you are looking for consistent numbers. He should have 90-100 yards on seven catches. After Kennison, the Chiefs’ wide receiver pool is pretty barren. Samie Parker (questionable) was expected to come in and produce as the team’s #2 receiver, but he has been inconsistent at best (his only real consistency is the “ability” to drop the ball). Parker may go for about 25 yards on Sunday. If Parker can’t go, Dante Hall, Chris Horn, and Marc Boerigter will all see an increase in reps.

Tony Gonzalez: Gonzalez was gradually worked back into the mix last Friday in Miami. He was used mostly on shorter routes, but his owners have to be intrigued with the amount of looks he received. After seven catches and 67 yards against Miami, owners will be expecting him to be more productive against a secondary that, quite frankly, has no answer for him. Kansas City should try to employ him downfield so that they can avoid Donnie Edwards (listed as questionable) in the middle of the field. Gonzalez should stretch the field more than usual in this game. Owners should start him without any worries. He should register 95 yards and his first touchdown of the season on eight grabs.

Defense: The Chiefs have showed some promise on D this year, but they have yet to put it together, as evidenced by their 27th-ranked defense (359.2 yards per game). Of course, this Chiefs team should be benched this week. They face a talented Charger offense on the road, so just look for a defense with a better matchup. The Chiefs team defense should only be good for a couple of sacks and a turnover. As for individual defensive players, Derrick Johnson and Kawika Mitchell have been solid contributors. They should each have five or six tackles this week. In the secondary, Greg Wesley is the only consistent point-producer.

San Diego

Drew Brees: Brees shouldn’t be throwing too often in this game, but when he does, he should find success against the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Brees will have many weapons at his disposal, and he will be able to work every part of the field to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. Brees has been fairly consistent this year, averaging over 200 yards passing and over a touchdown per game (ten TDs in seven games). Brees should go for something in the vicinity of 230 yards, two touchdowns, and one turnover this week.

LaDainian Tomlinson: After the debacle in Philly last week, I expect Tomlinson to explode in this game. He will be fed the ball constantly and could (in my opinion) see somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40 touches in this game. Tomlinson will face a formidable foe in the Chiefs’ front seven, but I believe that he will wear them out over the course of this game. I believe that Tomlinson will hit the end zone twice on his way to 190 total yards (150 rushing) on 30 carries and five grabs.

San Diego WRs: Keenan McCardell rebounded nicely from three straight sub-par weeks (with only four catches during that span) to post 78 yards and a TD on five catches at Philadelphia last week. McCardell is a risky play in this game because of his inconsistency, but you have to like him in this spot. I’ll say that he registers 60 yards and a touchdown against a vulnerable Chief defense. The other parts of this receiving corps are pretty hard to judge. Just when Eric Parker seemed to have a stranglehold on the #2 job, Reche Caldwell goes for 97 yards last week, surpassing his total for the first six games combined (84 yards). At times, these two enigmas produce on Sunday, but many times, they are nowhere to be found. I’ll just avoid any speculation and predict that neither of them will make an impact on Sunday. They will combine for about 30 yards receiving.

Antonio Gates: Gates is listed as questionable with a thigh bruise that he suffered in practice, so be sure to check on his status before game time. However, he has practiced late in the week and has said that he will play, so there will most likely be no reason to worry about his status. Assuming Gates plays and takes on a regular workload, he is a top-notch start this week. He encounters a secondary that is not built to stop prominent, pass-catching tight ends. Gates, like Gonzalez, should have a field day on Sunday. Brees seems to target him often, and with good reason. Gates should get several looks down the middle of the field. In six games, Gates has registered 430 yards (first on the team) and three scores. He is on pace for his first 1000-yard campaign, and this trend will continue on Sunday. Gates should rip the Chiefs defense to the tune of 90 yards and a TD on seven receptions.

Defense: As has been the case several times this season, San Diego’s matchup does not warrant a fantasy start. The Chiefs score often, and they play mistake-free football. I would expect a couple of sacks and a turnover, but not much more than that. One of the most valuable IDPs in the NFL, Donnie Edwards, has surfaced on the injury report with a knee problem, so make sure he is ready before inserting him into your lineup. However, head coach Marty Schottenheimer seems to enjoy listing his entire team as questionable, so perhaps this injury is less severe than some suspect. Terrence Kiel, seemingly one of the few players on the active roster not listed as questionable, is a viable option due to his consistent tackling numbers. If you are not lucky enough to have Edwards on your squad, Randall Godfrey could be an option with his 41 total tackles. Is Godfrey questionable? Why yes, he is (neck).

Sleeper

Lorenzo Neal: This directly relates to my matchup to watch. Lorenzo Neal may be one of the most underrated veterans in this league. Neal is recognized by just about everyone as one of the best fullbacks in the NFL. He has blocked for a 1000-yard rusher for the past eight years, and this year will be no different. He was instrumental in every one of these 1000-yard campaigns. Neal, as usual, will be the lead blocker for Tomlinson tomorrow, especially when San Diego runs out of the I-formation. If Neal does his job and opens holes for Tomlinson, this team will be difficult to stop.

Matchup to Watch

Running backs vs. the front seven: Despite the defensive struggles of both the Chargers and the Chiefs, they each rank in the top ten in rushing defense (SD – secnd, KC – eighth). These defenses are up for quite a challenge this week though, as Tomlinson, Holmes, and Johnson all should see a significant amount of carries. Each team should fare well through the air, but which team can break the stingy run defense that its opponent boasts? In my opinion, the winner of the Tomlinson vs. Holmes/Johnson battle could be in line for a W on Sunday.

Prediction

Kansas City had to enjoy week seven. They played earlier than every other team (and won), and they gained a game on their fiercest competition in the AFC West (Denver and San Diego). They had an extra two days to prepare for this game, but they basically had to fly across the country to play their second straight road game. The Chiefs are a notoriously poor road team (even though they are 2-1 on the road this year), and I think that they will have an uphill battle for the majority of this game. Also, with several teams in the AFC battling for a small amount of playoff spots, the Chargers must win this game to avoid falling any further behind the other contenders. A desperate Chargers team will take this game at home. San Diego 34, Kansas City 27.

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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