Spotlight Game: San Diego at Kansas City

This game will go a long way in solving the puzzle that is the AFC playoff picture. San Diego is fighting for the #6 seed, and will probably have to win their last two games (at Kansas City, and Denver) to have a legitimate chance of stealing the spot. At 8-6, Kansas City is hanging on by a thread after falling on the road to a couple of NFC East foes. They will have to win against San Diego and Cincinnati in week 17 to have a shot. Since both teams need this win to strengthen their playoff resume, we might as well call this an “elimination game.”

San Diego

Drew Brees: Brees has carried the load in recent weeks, but he shouldn’t have to do that in this game. Tomlinson will get plenty of carries, but Brees should still excel against the 31st ranked passing defense. He is on pace for nearly 4000 yards for the season, and he should eclipse the 25 touchdown mark. He fights inconsistency at times (14 interceptions), but he still has a very solid quarterback rating of 91.6. Brees has the weapons to beat this questionable secondary. Brees should record 240 yards passing, two touchdowns, and an interception.

LaDainian Tomlinson: The Chiefs still rank ninth in rushing defense after their debacle last week, but numbers like that do not matter if they can not rebound. They will have to be ready for this challenge. Kansas City held Tomlinson to just 69 yards on 17 carries in their last meeting, but that was in week eight. They will have to recover from last week and repeat their past performance. Tomlinson has been in a slump, failing to score or post 100 yards in his last three tries. Despite this small slump, he remains one of the premier backs in the league. Expect Tomlinson to break both of his dubious streaks to the tune of 125 yards rushing and a score. Tomlinson is listed as questionable with a chest problem, but he will almost certainly play in this game.

San Diego WRs: Keenan McCardell is the biggest red zone threat and by far the best fantasy play in this group. He is not dependable for huge yardage totals, but he knows how to score (808 yards, nine touchdowns this year). He has scored in two straight games, and I think he will make it a third. Look for McCardell to have a score on five receptions for 65 yards. Eric Parker (questionable – foot) has been a consistent four or five-catch receiver in the past couple of weeks. He doesn’t see the end zone often since he is a possession receiver (three touchdowns on the year), but he is a good safety valve. If he plays today, expect more of the same from him. He should tally four catches for 45 yards. Reche Caldwell will share duties with Parker. He may see more time and production if Parker is out, but I will stay conservative and chalk him down for 25 yards receiving.

Antonio Gates: Gates was not one of the beneficiaries of Brees’ throwing last week. The Colts kept him at bay, allowing him to run freely only on shorter passing routes. The result was one of Gates’ worst performances of the season: a six catch, 29-yard day that had fantasy owners shaking their collective heads. Gates should run much more freely in this game, however, since the Chiefs are not known for their prowess in the secondary. Gates should leave last week’s game behind him as he goes for 90 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions.

Defense: This defense stepped up on the road last week against the best offense that the NFL has seen in years. Unless you are expecting a similar performance out of them this week, they should be on the bench for your team’s playoffs/championship. The situation is the same: they are desperate, and they are on the road against a high scoring offense. However, it is tough to expect another performance like last week. Kansas City’s offensive line will not allow many sacks, and Chiefs do not turn the ball over often (especially at home). Expect only one or two sacks and a turnover. Donnie Edwards, an annual Pro Bowl snub, should be starting on your team with his 125 tackles. The only other real option here is Shawne Merriman, who has 49 tackles and nine sacks in his rookie year. He recorded seven total tackles and two sacks of Manning last week, so he could get to Brees this week. Stay away from Terrence Kiel, who is out with an ankle injury.

Kansas City

Trent Green: Green was slumping badly earlier in the year, but he has recovered as Larry Johnson has started to open up the passing lanes. Like Brees, Green will be facing a weak secondary, but both quarterbacks could have a tough time throwing if the inclement weather is a factor. Green should stick to short and intermediate routes throughout the game, but he could still find success. I like Green to throw for 210 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Larry Johnson: Two Goliaths will clash at the line on Saturday. The winner of this battle could ultimately determine the winner of the game. Johnson will put his streak of seven consecutive 100-yard days on the line against the most formidable run defense in the league. Johnson has been amazing this season, managing 1418 yards and 16 touchdowns while only seeing a full workload for half of the season. However, this is one of the better defenses he has seen. In their first meeting, Johnson was still splitting carries with Holmes, but he managed 55 yards on just six carries (one of these carries was for 46 yards). Johnson will need a big day so the offense can establish an attack through the air, but it will not be easy. Look for Johnson to end up with 95 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.

Kansas City WRs: This unit has proven to be a headache for owners looking for a consistent fantasy producer. Eddie Kennison (questionable) is the most consistent of these enigmas with 932 yards and five touchdowns on the year. He has the best chance to score, and I see him recording 50 yards and a score on five receptions if he plays. On the other side of the field, Samie Parker is finally beginning to live up to his potential. Early in the year, his only consistent trait was dropping balls. However, he is starting to produce. He has only 31 grabs for 459 yards on the year, but nearly a third of those catches and yards have come in the last two games. Parker could go for another 60 yards receiving on Saturday. Dante Hall will probably act as the third option. He should be good for 20 yards, but once in a while he may be targeted for a big play.

Tony Gonzalez: Gonzo has disappointed the fantasy owners who spent an early round pick on him. He will most likely end the season with less than 1000 yards after recording over 1250 yards last year. In addition, he only has two touchdowns this year as defenses are focusing on stopping him in the middle of the field (he has had at least seven touchdowns in every year since 1999). San Diego is not known for their secondary, however, so its possible that he will find more room to run on Saturday. Look for him to have six receptions for 70 yards and a red zone look.

Defense: This unit is simply not an option after last week’s performance. To add injury to insult, linebacker Shawn Barber (hamstring), defensive end Eric Hicks (shoulder), and free safety Jerome Woods (hamstring) are all question marks for this game. Although they are in the friendly confines of Arrowhead, San Diego’s prolific offense could be too much for them. Expect only a sack and a turnover. Kawika Mitchell and Derrick Johnson are both viable plays at the linebacker spot. They have recorded 93 and 84 tackles respectively. Greg Wesley is your best secondary option with his 78 tackles and six interceptions. If you are desperate at the defensive line position, try Jared Allen. He has been a pleasant surprise with 49 tackles and ten sacks.

Sleeper

Michael Turner: The entire football-viewing public saw Turner dash down the sidelines to clinch San Diego’s win over Indianapolis last week. He achieves sleeper status this week because of his increased number of carries and Kansas City’s inconsistent run defense. Turner’s blazing speed has proved useful when the Chargers try to change the pace. Turner has been effective all year, recording 336 yards and three touchdowns on only 56 carries (six yards per carry). I expect the Chargers to pound the ball until the Chiefs can prove that they can stop it, so Turner could see upwards of 10 carries in this game.

Matchup to Watch

Larry Johnson vs. San Diego’s front seven: This will come down to the battle up front. We will see the NFL’s best rushing defense against one of the better offensive lines in recent memory. With San Diego shutting down the run and Larry Johnson galloping to 100+ yards every game, something has got to give. Johnson has rushed for 100 yards in all of his last seven games. In fact, he has had over 140 yards in four of those seven games. He has also had at least two scores in five of those seven contests. It will be difficult, but if San Diego contains Johnson, they will walk away winners.

Prediction

Kansas City never loses in December. They are usually flawless at home, and they should be fuming over their last two road losses. However, it is tough to imagine how they will matchup with the Chargers. Their biggest weapon, Larry Johnson, will be going against a run defense that allows less than 80 yards rushing per game (including only 25 to Edgerrin James last week). In addition, the Kansas City run defense has disintegrated after a promising start to the season. They now must face LaDainian Tomlinson one week after Tiki Barber proved that the defense was immune to tackling. I like the Chargers to effectively eliminate the Chiefs from contention. Keep in mind that the forecast calls for rain/snow and high winds (25-35 mph) during the game. Happy Holidays to all readers and Cafers! San Diego 24, Kansas City 20

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.

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