Team Defenses: Week 10

Week 10 is not a good week for acquiring defenses off the waiver wire. Most of the defenses which, statistically speaking, appear be good plays are those which are most likely already owned in your league. There are, however, a few out there which might still be on your wire. So without further ado, let’s examine the matchups which appear to be the best plays according to my formula.

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Indianapolis vs. Houston

Any defense that faces Houston tends to be an excellent play on any given week, but this week things look especially bright for Indianapolis owners. In many leagues (in fact, in most leagues), Indianapolis has been the highest-scoring fantasy defense through nine weeks of play. The Colts are currently tied with Chicago for fewest points allowed per game (12.2) and lead the league in total sacks (28). The Texans are second only to Baltimore for fewest points scored per game (13.4), and they have given up a league-worst 43 total sacks in only eight games. If you have the Colts, count your lucky stars. When these two teams met in week seven, the Colts came away with five sacks, one interception, one fumble recovery, and a defensive TD. You should expect similar numbers this week.

Chicago vs. San Francisco

This is another dream matchup. The Bears’ defense is one of the best fantasy scorers in the league, and like the Colts they face a horrid offense in week ten. The Niners currently are dead last in the league in terms of yards gained per game (204.2), and the rest of their numbers on offense are similarly terrible. This game is being played in Chicago where the Bears are particularly tough, and the Niners road play is about as bad as it gets. You should expect somewhere in the neighborhood of four sacks and four turnovers for the Bears defense this week. And a shutout would not be out of the question, either.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Jacksonville vs. Baltimore

The Ravens just cannot seem to get anything going on offense. The return of Kyle Boller is the only thing that keeps me from ranking the Jaguars’ defense as a stud this week, but even Boller is not going to help the Ravens very much. They currently score the fewest points per game of any team in the NFL, and the Jags’ defense is pretty good even when they face a quality opponent. In Jacksonville, I fully expect the Jaguars to hold the Ravens to 17 points or fewer, and they will probably pick up a handful of sacks and a turnover or two along the way.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are about as tough a defense as you will find, and the Browns do not exactly bring to town the best offense in the division. This game is in prime time, so there could be some surprises, but I fully expect the Steelers to shut down Reuben Droughns and force the Browns to go to the air. When that happens, the turnovers should start to flow. I expect the Steelers to hold the Browns to two touchdowns or fewer, and they should pick up an interception or two as well. If you have the Steelers, this would be a good weekend to play them.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Detroit vs. Arizona

As bad as the Lions are on offense, their defense is actually playing well. They are averaging better than two turnovers and two sacks per game, and holding their opponents to fewer than 20 points. But more than that, the Lions are a good play because Arizona is just playing poorly. The Cardinals cannot muster any type of running game, which allows their opponents to play the pass exclusively. This explains why they have given up 20 turnovers and 26 sacks thus far this season – both of which are near the league worst. If Kurt Warner is the quarterback going into this game, expect huge sack numbers from Detroit, but even if Josh McCown gets the call, the Lions are still a good play.

New York Giants vs. Minnesota

If Daunte Culpepper were playing, the Giants would be a considerably better play than this, but with Brad Johnson at the helm, the Vikings seem to have found a spark. But even with the change at quarterback, the game is still being played in New York, where the Giants have proven themselves to be extremely tough. Just ask the Washington Redskins, who were shut out by the Giants in week eight. The play of the Minnesota offensive line is still pretty offensive, so I look for Brad Johnson to have a hard time this week. If you have the Giants, or need a waiver wire defense, strongly consider playing them this week.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Carolina vs. New York Jets

The Jets showed some promise last week against San Diego, but the Carolina secondary is much better than the Chargers’ secondary, and odds are good that the Jets will have to go to the air early to keep up with the high-powered aerial assault Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith put together every week. If you own Carolina, or can pick them up off the waiver wire, they should be a decent play this week.

Seattle vs. St. Louis

If your league penalizes you heavily for points scored against your defense, look elsewhere this week, but in most leagues turnovers and sacks are the bread and butter of any fantasy defense’s scoring. While this game will be high-scoring, and the Rams could put up 30 points, they should also yield five sacks and at least three turnovers on Sunday, which could lead to a defensive TD. If you’re having a hard time finding a defense to play this week, give Seattle some consideration.

Tampa Bay vs. Washington

The Redskins offense is not nearly as dangerous on the road as it is at home, and the Bucs have a defense to be reckoned with. The game is being played in Tampa Bay, so consider playing the Bucs this week. They should be able to shut down Clinton Portis, and Ronde Barber will do a much better job keeping Santana Moss in check than Philadelphia did on Sunday night in week nine. The Tampa Bay offense is bad enough that the defense will have a lot of opportunities to pick up sacks and turnovers, as they will spend the majority of the game on the field. There are better plays than the Bucs, but if you have them, you could do a lot worse than to play them this week.

Atlanta vs. Green Bay

Green Bay’s offense is not as bad as their record would indicate – at least not from a fantasy defensive matchup point of view. They give up fewer than two sacks per game, and average 21 points every time they take the field. Atlanta’s defense is studly, and it may appear to some readers that they should be a much better play than this, but for week 10, against Green Bay, I’m only going to rate them as decent.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

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