Team Defenses: Week 11

Week 10 was a very good week for those of you who took advantage of the Carolina and Jacksonville recommendations from last week’s article, as both team defenses scored better than 20 points in most league formats. Those of you who played Indianapolis had to be disappointed with the Colts’ lackluster showing against Houston, though, and it just goes to show that even the “sure things” occasionally falter, but that’s what makes the game of fantasy football so exciting. In week 11, those of you looking for a defense off the waiver wire should have plenty to work with. There are no true stud match-ups in week 11, but there are plenty of excellent and good plays that should be available in most leagues. So, without further ado, let’s examine the best matchups according to my formula.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Denver vs. NY Jets

We saw what the Panthers did to the Jets in week 10, and their success led a great many fantasy teams to a victory last Sunday. The Jets do not have it any easier this week, as they face Denver at Invesco Field on Sunday. There are few places more difficult for road teams to play than Denver, and with Brooks Bollinger at the helm, it looks like the Jets may be in for another rough weekend. The Jets currently rank 30th in total yards per game and 31st in points scored per game. They have given up the fourth most turnovers of any NFL team and the third most sacks. Simply put, their offense is atrocious, but a gold mine for fantasy defenses. Look for the Jets to put up fewer than 17 points while they give up five sacks and three turnovers this week. In most fantasy formats, that is a whole pile of points for Denver.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

I’d like this matchup more if the game were being played in Pittsburgh, and if the two teams were not bitter division rivals. But you cannot get around the numbers. Baltimore gives up better than two turnovers per game and close to three sacks. Not to mention, they are dead last in the NFL in terms of total points scored per game (11.1). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh brings to town one of the league’s best defenses, both from a real life and fantasy perspective. They are allowing fewer than 17 points per game on average, while racking up over two turnovers and close to three sacks per contest. To make matters worse for the Ravens, the Steelers bring to town the third-ranked rush defense in the league, and that means the game will be put in the hands of Kyle Boller. I’m thinking the Steelers hold the Ravens to fewer than 14 points while picking up three turnovers and three sacks in this one.

Good Plays (3 stars)

Green Bay vs. Minnesota

Yes, I know the Vikings got a win over the Giants in week 10. But that win was brought about by two special teams TDs and a defensive score. Minnesota’s only other points came off a field goal. Otherwise, the offense was shut out entirely. Mathematically, this is the match-up of the week, but because the return of Brad Johnson to the starting ranks of the NFL has seemed to light a fire under the Vikings, and with the game being played on Monday night, I’m downgrading this match-up to a “good play.” There are too many wild cards in this one to rank it as an excellent play. It’s a division game, it’s in primetime, and the Vikings are gaining momentum. If you’re willing to gamble, Green Bay could pay off handsomely, but if you need every point you can get from your defense this week, I’d look elsewhere. This is a boom or bust pick.

Kansas City vs. Houston

Any defense that matches up with the Texans should have a good week. Last week notwithstanding, the Texans still rank last or close to last in almost all offensive categories, and worse than that, they have the league’s worst rushing defense, which should mean big points for Larry Johnson and the Chiefs. When Houston gets behind, they’ll be forced to the air, and when that happens, it should be a sack-fest. If you need a waiver wire D, and there isn’t much out there to choose from, consider Kansas City.

Seattle vs. San Francisco

The Niners are horrible on both sides of the ball. This should mean they get behind early in this one, and have to go all-pass by midway through the second quarter. Normally I would rank this matchup as a stud play, but it too carries some wild cards with it. It’s a division game, the Niners play much better at home than on the road, and Ken Dorsey is back in the lineup for San Francisco, and in my mind he is their best option at quarterback right now. For these reasons, I have dropped the Seahawks from the ranks of the studly to a “good play” this week. San Francisco has already shocked the Rams and Buccaneers at home this year, and they very nearly pulled off victories against Dallas at home, and against Chicago on the road (two likely playoff teams). If you need a waiver wire defense, Seattle should be a nice play, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if this was the upset game of the week, either.

Carolina vs. Chicago

In Carolina, I would rank this an excellent play, but in Chicago, I think this match-up tumbles to the ranks of the “good plays.” Never ever underestimate the effects of freezing cold wind on teams from the South. The good news for Carolina is that they bring to town the league’s best rush defense, and without the ability to run the ball, the Bears are only slightly better than my local high school squad. The bad news for the Panthers is that we’re looking at 39 degrees at kickoff, and this game looks like it may be a low-scoring affair. If the Panthers can’t get up on the Bears like they have against most of their other recent opponents, the Bears will continue to try to pound the ball, and that will severely limit Carolina’s ability to put up huge fantasy points on defense. If you have the Panthers in your arsenal, though, I would play them. There are far worse matchups you could be stuck with.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Dallas vs. Detroit

The only thing keeping this from being an excellent play is the return of Roy Williams to the Detroit lineup. Joey Harrington is still awful, but he seems to do his best work when Williams is on the field. Detroit is only two games behind the Bears in the NFC North and could be positioned for a playoff run (as pitiful as that is). If we’ve learned nothing else about Joey Harrington, it’s that the kid is utterly inconsistent, but when he gets it going, he can really light it up. If you need a waiver wire defense, and Dallas is out there, you could do much worse, but I am not going to guarantee huge numbers, as I think the Lions are starting to turn the corner.

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

This matchup depends entirely on which Chris Simms decides to show up on Sunday. I suspect it will be the Chris Simms that we saw on the road against San Francisco, and not the kid we saw at home against Washington. But this is a division game between two teams fighting for a wild card spot and tied for second place in the NFC South. When all is said and done, this could be the game that decides which of these squads makes the playoffs, and which sits at home watching football this January like the rest of us. That kind of game is hard to predict. And so I’m not going to recommend Atlanta as anything more than a six-to-ten point defense this week.

Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

The Titans’ offense is not as terrible as their record suggests. They are averaging better than 320 total yards of offense and scoring close to 20 points per game. Jacksonville will win this game, but in Tennessee, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won it 27-24. This game is another division rivalry game, and I think it will be a close one. Call it a hunch, but I wouldn’t be playing Jacksonville this week if I had any of the teams listed above at my disposal. However, there are a whole lot of teams with worse matchups, so if none of the other teams in this article are available to you, and you’re still holding Jacksonville after last week’s 20+ point performance, you could do much worse than to play them against the Titans.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

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