Team Defenses: Week 13

First let me apologize for the lack of article in week 12. I hope all of your fantasy teams did well over the holiday. Holiday obligations are what kept me from being able to publish the column. Week 13 is a very good week for picking up defenses off the waiver wire. Many fantasy teams out there are starting the likes of Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Philadelphia. None of these teams have good matchups this week, so I have no doubt many of you will be looking to pick up a waiver wire defense as you make your final push for a playoff spot. So without further ado, let’s look at the best matchups according to my defensive formula for week 13.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Baltimore vs. Houston

Amazingly, the perennial first defense picked in fantasy drafts is available on many waiver wires right now. The Ravens have been a disappointment up until this point in the season, but this seems to be the week in which owners who have stuck by them will be rewarded. The Ravens allow fewer than 300 yards of total offense per game (287.0), which is actually one of the better performances in the league this season in that category, but what makes the Ravens such a good play this week is the relative ineptitude of the Houston offense. The Texans’ offensive line has given up 50 sacks so far in 2005. To put this in perspective, Miami and San Francisco, the two worst teams in the NFL last year, only allowed 52 sacks all season. The only thing that keeps Baltimore from being considered a stud play this week (five stars) is the fact that the Texans’ offense seems to be coming together. That fact notwithstanding, however, the Ravens still appear to be the best play of the week in week 13.

Jacksonville vs. Cleveland

In all likelihood, someone in your league already has Jacksonville, and is sitting pretty for the playoffs, as three of their next four opponents are Cleveland, San Francisco, and Houston, but if you are lucky enough to have them or you play in a league where no one pays attention to defense, and the Jaguars are on your wire, they make an excellent play in week 13, as they continue to post double-digit points from the defensive position.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Miami vs. Buffalo

The Buffalo offense ranks 31st in the league in terms of points scored per game (14.6). In addition to that, the Bills allow close to three sacks per game (2.91), and only four NFL teams allow more (Houston, Minnesota, New York Jets, and St. Louis). Meanwhile, Miami’s defense typically picks up three sacks per game and only Chicago, Indianapolis, Seattle, and San Diego average better in that category. Add to that the circumstance that the winner of this game is actually still mathematically in the hunt for the division title, while the loser is virtually eliminated from playoff contention, the fact that the game is being played in Miami, and the knowledge that JP Losman will be at the helm for the Bills, and I think those of you who pick up Miami off the wire for a one-week play can expect 10-15 points out of them in week 13.

Detroit vs. Minnesota

OK, so this game is a wild card. The Lions bring in a new head coach and offensive coordinator to this game, and Minnesota seems like a team reborn since Brad Johnson took the reins. But the fact remains that the Lions’ performance on defense is surprisingly consistent at home, and the Vikings’ offensive line is still allowing over four sacks per game (4.27). If you are desperate for help this week, and need a win to put you in the playoffs, I think you could do a lot worse than the Lions.

Chicago vs. Green Bay

As badly as Green Bay plays in real life, they actually do not give up a lot of points to fantasy defenses. They have only given up 14 sacks all year, which is tied with Denver and second only to Indianapolis for tops in that category. That being said, though, the Bears have too good a defense not to play them if you have them. They lead the league in fewest points and fewest total yards allowed per game, and I think they will hold Green Bay under 18 points in this game. Just don’t expect another 20+ point performance out of the Bears in week 13. Brett Favre isn’t going to give up those kinds of points, and stopping the run doesn’t count for defensive fantasy points, which is really too bad for Bears owners.

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

No doubt many of you are surprised to see Indianapolis ranked this low this week. I mean, they have one of the highest-scoring fantasy defenses in most leagues, and Tennessee has one of the worst NFL offenses. However, in reality, the Titans have a fairly middle-of-the-road offense, and it’s their defense that is responsible for their poor performance this year. They score better than 21 points per game, while giving up fewer than two turnovers and two sacks. With that said, Indy should get out to an early lead in this one, which will force the Titans into pass mode, and the Colts still have one of the best pass rushes in football. In much the same way I recommended the Bears this week, I will say to play the Colts if you have them, but do not expect another 20+ point performance.

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

The Bucs’ defense has weakened slightly. They are currently allowing close to 18 points per game, and averaging fewer than two turnovers and just over two sacks per contest. That said, the Saints give up more turnovers than any team in the NFL (2.55 per game), so expect the Bucs to take advantage of a weak opponent and bring their defensive stats back up to par this week. If the game were in Tampa, I would have this matchup ranked much higher, but being that the game is in Louisiana and considering the fact that it’s a division game, I’m going to rank it as only a good play.

New England vs. New York Jets

The Jets are just bad. Even though the Patriots’ defense is not what it once was, and their secondary is one of the worst in football, I have very little faith that Brooks Bollinger can beat any secondary whatsoever. The Jets score the fewest points per game of any team in the NFL (12.7), they give up better than two turnovers per game (2.45), and better than three sacks to boot (3.18). Any defense is a good play against the Jets, and the Patriots, at home, should be able to post 10-12 fantasy points against them pretty easily.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Minnesota vs. Detroit

The Lions’ offense is hard to predict. One week they are one of the worst in football, the next week they are actually pretty decent. It seems that they play their best ball at home, and this week’s game is in Detroit, so I’m going to rank Minnesota as little more than a decent play. I think the coaching change in Detroit may bring the players into the game with something to prove, so don’t expect Minnesota to blow the Lions out of the water. If you can get by with eight to ten fantasy points from your defense, though, the Vikings make for a pretty decent play.

Arizona vs. San Francisco

Like the Jets, the Niners’ offense is simply awful. Period. The last time these two teams met (in Mexico City), the Cardinals’ defense posted 20 fantasy points in most formats. I wouldn’t expect numbers quite that high, but this unit could easily post double digits.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

 

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