Team Defenses: Week 5

This week’s matchups are a little tricky, because we have very few stud defenses playing horrid offenses. More often than not, what we find are mediocre defenses matched up with the worst offenses in the league, and stud defenses matched up with pretty decent offenses. There are exceptions, though. So, without further ado, let’s look at the matchups which, mathematically speaking, appear to be the best fantasy plays for week five.

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Tampa Bay vs. New York Jets

In my opinion, Brooks Bollinger looked better against the Ravens than Chad Pennington has looked all year, and we know that Vinny Testaverde has the ability to win a game or two if he gets his shot, but Tampa Bay’s defense is currently allowing only 220.2 total yards per game (first in the NFL). The Buccaneers are extremely tough against the run, and the Jets will likely be forced to try to beat them through the air. With the pass rush that Tampa is generating, and the overall lack of aerial power possessed by the Jets, look for Tampa Bay to give the Jets even more fits in week five than the Ravens did in week four. The Jets may be able to score more than three points at home, but if any game this week is a shutout, I think this might be the one.

Indianapolis vs. San Francisco

Speaking of shutouts, this game very easily could end up being a 35-0 affair. San Francisco’s offense is in total disarray. The 49ers have virtually no running game to speak of, and against Arizona they had an almost impossible time getting the ball past the 50-yard line. Indianapolis still leads the league in fewest points allowed per game (6.5), and Dwight Freeney will have a field day with Tim Rattay or Alex Smith on Sunday. That makes San Francisco the next most likely team to get shut out and Indianapolis the other stud play of the week.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Tennessee vs. Houston

This is more a testament to the fact that the Houston Texans have the worst offense in football than it is to the defensive prowess of the Titans. The Houston Texans are currently averaging 198.3 total yards of offense and a measly 8.0 points per game (lowest in the NFL on both counts). Through three games, they have allowed 20 sacks, which has to rank among the worst all-time in that category. Against any other team, Tennessee would be a mediocre start, at best, but against the Texans my local high school defense would be a decent play. The Titans should be a defense you can acquire off the wire, so don’t hesitate to use them if you need a bye-week fill-in this week.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Detroit vs. Baltimore

In the same way that Tennessee achieves playable status this week because of the offensive woes of their opponent, the Lions defense should have a good outing against a Ravens offense that seems to be out of sync. The Ravens had a better showing against the Jets than they have had throughout most of the year, but they are still averaging fewer than 300 yards per game of total offense and are second only to the Texans for fewest points per game scored (10.0). The good news for Ravens fans is that Jamal Lewis seems to be getting his head back in the game, and the Lions allowed Thomas Jones to rip their run D to shreds. The bad news for Ravens fans is that the Lions had a pretty good week stopping a gimpy Cadillac Williams in Tampa this past Sunday, and they should be able to exercise the same defensive schemes to stop Lewis. If that happens, look for the Ravens to turn the game over to Anthony Wright, who has thus far thrown twice as many interceptions as TDs and sports a 70.5 QB rating through three games. Expect the Lions to allow fewer than 15 points in this game.

Baltimore vs. Detroit

The Ravens defense has not lived up to their billing as the best defense in football through the first quarter of the season, but Detroit’s offense is looking about as bad as a unit can look these days. The Lions are only picking up 238 total yards of offense and 12 points per game, both of which rival the numbers of the Buffalo Bills for the second-worst offensive statistics in the NFL (behind Houston). I know the game is in Detroit, and I know the Ravens have only managed one turnover through the first three games of the season, but that will change this week as Joey Harrington continues to demonstrate for the league why he has to be one of the worst top-five draft picks of all time. Look for the Ravens to put a hurt’n on the Lions, and reestablish themselves at one of the league’s premier defenses this week.

Denver vs. Washington

The Broncos are a much better team in Denver than they are on the road. Washington has somehow managed to get to 3-0 this year, but the Redskins’ offense has very little to do with their success. The Broncos sport one of the best run-stopping linebacker crews in the league (just ask Kansas City), and there is no doubt that they’re looking forward to taking some shots at Clinton Portis. There is every indication that this game will be placed in the hands of Mark Brunell fairly early in the contest. One of the big question marks for this matchup is the status of Champ Bailey. Obviously the Broncos have a much better chance of coming up big on defense if Bailey is 100% (or even 90%), but if Bailey can’t go, the Broncos are still a good play. If he’s able to play up to his abilities, though, Brunell could have a much tougher time finding the open receiver, and he could be looking at five (or more) sacks before this thing is through. If Denver is on your wire, and you need a bye-week filler, you could do a lot worse than the Broncos…

Carolina vs. Arizona

As of press time, the Carolina vs. Green Bay Monday Night Football game had not taken place; however, I feel confident enough about this call to go ahead and say that Carolina will have a good outing against Arizona in week five. Josh McCown did well against San Francisco in week four, but the Niners do not have anywhere near the defensive prowess that the Panthers have, and the Cardinals still have not managed to muster much of a rushing attack. The Cardinals are giving up 3.5 sacks per game, and there is every reason to expect that they will continue to let defenders get to their quarterback this week. Look for the Panthers to have four to five sacks in this one and keep the Cards out of the end zone.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Miami vs. Buffalo

JP Losman: 45 of 94, 433 yards, 1 TD, 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles, 10 sacks

And, that’s through four games. Need I say more?

Seattle vs. St. Louis

OK, so the Rams do put up a lot of points, and Marc Bulger does throw for a lot of yards, but they also give up a ton of sacks, and Bulger has already thrown a good number of picks this year. Additionally, the ‘Hawks are putting a lot of pressure on opposing QB’s in 2005, and their offense should be able to manhandle St. Louis’ defense. The Rams should be forced to pass to keep up, and we all know head coach Mike Martz prefers to go that route if he can. All of this adds up to a whole lot of Marc Bulger dropping back and a whole lot of Seahawks in his face every time he does. If you’re in a league that penalizes you heavily for points scored against your fantasy D, then you might consider playing someone other than Seattle, but in most leagues, sacks and turnovers are the most important factor in how your fantasy defense scores, as they often lead to defensive TDs. Look for the ‘Hawks to come up with three turnovers and four to five sacks against the Rams, and don’t be surprised if they pick up a defensive TD, as well.

Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville

Mathematically speaking, this is a much better match-up than where I am ranking it this week. However, the Bengals have yet to face a defense which will put on the pressure the way that the Jags will (especially in Jacksonville). If the Bengals can’t get their offense firing the way that they have been thus far this season, I think their defense becomes a worse play than they have been through the first four games. The good news is that the Jags have not been doing a great job protecting the quarterback, and only Houston, St. Louis, and the New York Jets have given up more sacks. Cincinnati’s forte tends to be picking the ball off rather than getting to the quarterback, though, so the Jags might be able to give Lefty the time he needs to get the job done. I still believe that Marvin Lewis has the Bengals headed in the right direction, though, so if you need that bye-week defense, and there is not a whole lot available on your wire, Cincinnati is worth a little consideration.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

Questions or comments for Patrick? Post your thoughts in the Cafe’s forums!