Team Defenses: Week 6

It looks like things are starting to come together with my formula. The Law of Averages is beginning to take over, and teams are starting to perform in a more mathematically predictable manner. Week 5 saw two of my picks, Indianapolis and Tennessee, win a lot of games for a lot of fantasy owners. Hopefully, week 6 will produce similar results. The bad news is that there are not a lot of truly great matchups on the board this week. In fact, I really only feel confident recommending seven defenses. So, without further ado, let’s look at some of the matchups which appear to be the best bets for fantasy defenses in week 6…

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Seattle vs. Houston

The Houston Texans continue to be an opponent of choice when it comes to picking a fantasy defense. Last year, the Miami Dolphins were the team to play, but this year, the Texans definitely have taken over that title. Through four games this season, the Texans are currently gaining only 213 yards of total offense, and scoring only 11 points per contest. To make matters worse, they are giving up close to seven sacks per game. Any defense which plays Houston’s pitiful offensive line will be a money play. This week, Seattle has the honor. And the way the Seahawks are getting to the quarterback, I think we can expect David Carr to spend a whole lot of time dusting himself off in week 6.

Chicago vs. Minnesota

The Vikings’ offense is going through perhaps the worst downward spiral we have seen in the NFL in a decade or more. They are currently giving up five sacks and nearly four turnovers per game. And things do not look promising for them when they match up against Chicago this week. The Bears have one of the league’s best defenses, and they are currently holding opposing offenses under 270 yards of total offense per game. Look for Daunte Culpepper to get rattled, again, in this one, which should lead to at least three turnovers and a handful of sacks. The Bears might not win this game the way that their offense is playing, but their defense should definitely be a stud fantasy play. I would be surprised if they didn’t get into double digits in week 6. Odds are good the Bears are not available on your waiver wire, but if they are, snag them, or if you’re one of the lucky ones who happens to be holding them already, play them with confidence.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Indianapolis vs. St. Louis

Yes, the Rams put up a lot of points, but they are also currently tied with Minnesota for the second-most sacks allowed thus far this season (20). Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense leads the league in quarterback sacks through five games (20). Dwight Freeney is going to eat Marc Bulger alive on Monday. I would not at all be shocked to see him set the single-game sack record in this matchup. Sacks lead to turnovers, and turnovers lead to defensive touchdowns. Aside from that, the Colts are currently allowing only 5.8 points to be scored against them per game (first in the NFL). Do not be scared to play the Colts this week if you’re lucky enough to have them. While they may give up more than their usual 5.8 points, I would be very surprised if they didn’t end up with ten sacks and two turnovers.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Atlanta vs. New Orleans

The Saints are currently second in the league (behind Minnesota) for most turnovers given up per game. To make matters worse, they’re going to have to try to get it done against Atlanta without their star running back, Deuce McAllister. The Falcons’ defense is second in the league (behind Indianapolis) for most sacks made per game, and if the dirty birds can stifle Antowain Smith and force Aaron Brooks to try to beat them through the air, they easily could find themselves on the receiving end of multiple sacks and three or four interceptions on Sunday.

Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville

The Pittsburgh defense is good enough to make up for the fact that Jacksonville has a pretty good offense. Through four games, the Steelers’ defense is averaging 2.5 turnovers and 3.75 sacks each time they take the field. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has already given up 13 sacks so far this year, and they’re only managing to put up 17 points per game. If the Steelers can bottle up Fred Taylor and force Lefty to drop back to pass, we could easily see four to five sacks behind a Jacksonville line that is mediocre, at best, in pass protection.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Cleveland vs. Baltimore

Yes, folks, Baltimore’s offense is that bad. So far, they have scored only 11.8 points per game, and have given up a total of 12 turnovers, 10 sacks. And that’s through just four games.

Tampa Bay vs. Miami

Normally, Tampa’s defense is a much stronger play than this, but Nick Saban seems to have the ‘Phins headed in the right direction. Ricky Williams returns to the field on Sunday, and I’m going to have to see what he can do before I will rank a defense facing Miami as anything more than a decent play.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.