Team Defenses: Week 8

First let me apologize about the fact that I was unable to write this article for week 7. However, I did post the results of my formula in the forums, and the predictions were remarkably accurate last week. It seems like the law of averages has begun to take over, and these defenses, as well as their opposition offenses, are starting to behave in a more predictable manner. I know a lot of you out there in fantasy land will be looking to pick up waiver wire defenses in week 8, with Indianapolis and Atlanta both on their bye week, so without further ado, let’s look at the best fantasy defenses to play this week, based on the matchups that my formula deems most attractive.

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco

Boy, the Niners sure are a mess this year, and things could only get messier if Alex Smith is unable to go in week 8. Regardless of whether or not it’s Smith or Ken Dorsey under center, though, the Bucs are coming to town, and whichever quarterback takes the field will be facing one of the best defenses in the NFL behind one of the worst offensive lines we’ve seen in years. The Bucs are currently leading the league in terms of fewest total offensive yards allowed per game (233.3), and San Francisco is second only to Houston for fewest total offensive yards gained per game (214.7). To make matters worse, the Niners are currently giving up 3.67 sacks per contest, and the Bucs bring to town one of the fastest pass rushes in the NFL. Look for Smith or Dorsey to be sacked at least five times in this contest, and that should lead to a pair of turnovers and a possible defensive TD. The Bucs are without a doubt a five-star play in week 8.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Carolina vs. Minnesota

Next to the Texans, the Vikings have given up the most sacks of any NFL team this season (29). They have also given up the third-most turnovers (18) as a result of all of that quarterback pressure. They are averaging only 15 total points scored per game, and gaining just barely over 300 yards of total offense per contest. I’d, personally, recommend any defense that was playing Minnesota as a great waiver wire pickup on any given week, and that includes Carolina. While the Panthers have not been the defensive juggernaut in 2005 that they have been in the past, they are still forcing turnovers at the rate of 2.67 per game (fourth in the NFL). That spells trouble for a turnover-prone Daunte Culpepper. Look for three picks and a fumble recovery from the Panthers this week, making them one of the excellent plays on defense for week 8.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

The Steelers are currently racking up 3.33 sacks per game, which is the best figure for any of the defenses playing this week (third behind Indianapolis and Atlanta), and the Ravens offense has yet to get anything started, scoring a league-worst 11.5 points per game. The Steelers will stack the line to stop Jamal Lewis in this one, and that will result in a whole lot of pass attempts, without much success, by Anthony Wright. Don’t be surprised if this game is the shutout this week. When a stud defense likes the Steelers runs into a struggling offense like the Ravens, you have to play them if you have that option.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Dallas vs. Arizona

In Dallas, the Cowboys are a very good play this week. The race in the NFC East is tight. The Cowboys are currently last in their division, but only back by a half a game. The Redskins and Giants face off in week 8, and the Eagles play the Broncos in Denver (never an easy task). If the Cowboys can pull off a win, there is every possibility that they could find themselves in a three-way tie for second place in the division behind the winner of the Redskins-Giants game come Monday. If I’m telling you this, you can bet your bottom dollar Bill Parcells is making very sure his players understand it as well. The Cowboys will come out fired up at home this week, and there are very few offenses you would like to face more in such an important contest than the Cardinals. Josh McCown had a pretty poor outing against Tennessee in week 7, and we could see Kurt Warner back at the helm for the Cards on Sunday afternoon. That would be great news for DeMarcus Ware and company, as Warner is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. But regardless of who is under center for the Cardinals, the Cowboys are going to be coming after him, and with no running game to take the pressure off, I suspect they’ll get him, too.

Cleveland vs. Houston

OK, the Houston Texans are last in the league in both offensive yards per game (203) and sacks allowed per game (5.83). They are also second in the league for fewest points scored per game (12.3). Any defense which faces Houston is, at worst, a good play for your fantasy squad. And, yes, that includes Cleveland.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Jacksonville vs. St. Louis

If Mike Martz were calling this game for St. Louis, I would have this ranked as an excellent play, but since he is gone for the season, I’m only giving this matchup two stars. Here’s why: the strength of the Jacksonville defense is stopping the pass. They rank second in the league against the pass, but only 23rd against the run. With the new-look offensive scheme in St. Louis, and the fact that Marc Bulger will likely be on the bench for another game, I look for the Rams to try to pound away at Jacksonville on the ground. And Steven Jackson sure seems like he’s able to get that accomplished. This game will be fought in the trenches, and I do not expect to see the usual aerial assault that we have come to expect out of St. Louis. So, while Jacksonville has a good defense, and the Rams have given up a lot of fantasy points to defenses so far this season, temper your expectations a little if you’re playing Jacksonville in week 8.

All of the other mathematically good plays this week have question marks surrounding their matchups. Detroit seems like a good play against Chicago, but without Dre Bly, I’m going to have to take a wait-and-see approach to the Lions on defense. Similarly, Chicago looks like a good play against Detroit, but with Jeff Garcia at the helm, I’d like to wait another week before I start picking against the Lions on offense, as well. Miami plays against a very turnover-prone New Orleans team, but they play in Baton Rouge. It’s the homecoming game for the Saints, and I think emotions will be running high in this one. Don’t be surprised if the Saints come out fired up and put up 30 in this contest. Personally, I’m avoiding it.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.