Team Defenses: Week 9

OK fellas, this week looks to be a pretty good week for acquiring good defensive plays off the waiver wire. And it’s a good thing, too, because a whole lot of you are carrying Indianapolis and Tampa Bay as your primary fantasy defenses and both have very tough matchups in week nine. Additionally, I’m sure quite a few of you are carrying Dallas, and possibly Denver, both of which are on a bye this week. So it’s very good news that at least four of this week’s top ten defenses should be available to you on the wire. Without further ado, let’s examine the best defensive plays for week nine based on the matchups:

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Jacksonville vs. Houston

Now this is a matchup worthy of following closely, as the same matchup occurs in week 16, which is fantasy Super Bowl week in most leagues. And it appears to be a very good one for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are currently holding their opponents to fewer than 300 yards of total offense per game, while averaging close to 2.5 turnovers and 2.3 sacks. Meanwhile the Texans continue to struggle, having given up a league-leading 37 sacks thus far this season and averaging just barely over 207 yards of total offense per game. The Texans got a win last Sunday at home against a struggling Cleveland Browns team, but they will not have that same luck in Jacksonville this week against one of the league’s best defenses. Look for the Jags to put together five sacks and two turnovers while limiting the Texans to fewer than 14 points on Sunday.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

New York Giants vs. San Francisco

Some of you are now asking yourselves why the Giants are not a stud play this week coming off a shutout of Washington in week eight and looking forward to a matchup against one of the league’s worst offenses in week nine. Well, the answer is simple. The Giants are not the same team on the road that they are at home, and neither are the Niners. Eli Manning has never won a game on the road in his short NFL career, and the Niners have already knocked off Tampa Bay and St. Louis at home this year. I believe the Giants to still be an excellent play on defense this week, but the small degree of uncertainty associated with the fact that the game is in San Francisco is what keeps me from calling them a stud play.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Detroit vs. Minnesota

Daunte Culpepper will be replaced by veteran Brad Johnson in this game, but the swiss cheese offensive line remains the same. I guess we’re going to find out if the Vikings’ offensive woes were really the fault of the quarterback in this game. If it turns out that Daunte really should shoulder the majority of the blame for the troubles in Minnesota, then perhaps Detroit will be slightly less of the studly play that my formula predicted for this week. But if it’s the line that’s been causing all the trouble, then look for Detroit to put up at least four sacks in this contest, as they have been doing a very good job of getting to the quarterback so far in 2005.

San Diego vs. New York Jets

Don’t look now, but the Chargers are tied for second in the league in quarterback sacks (24). And the Jets not only give up nearly four sacks per game, but they also score the second fewest points per game of any team in the NFL (13.1). As of the writing of this article, it was uncertain whether or not Brooks Bollinger or Vinny Testaverde would be starting for the Jets, but in either case the Chargers make a very solid defensive play against them.

Chicago vs. New Orleans

This game is a bit of a wild card, being played in Baton Rouge, but the Bears bring to town one of the best fantasy defenses in the league, and the Saints have lost six of their last seven games. In those losses, they have only scored better than 17 points one time. Next to Indianapolis, the Bears hold their opponents to the fewest points scored per game of all the defenses in the NFL, so holding New Orleans to 14 or fewer points is a definite possibility. Add to that any sacks they get and any interceptions thrown by a very turnover-prone Aaron Brooks, and Chicago should be a very good play in week nine.

Cincinnati vs. Baltimore

The Bengals lead the league in turnovers so far in 2005, and they meet a Baltimore team in week nine that is currently scoring the fewest points per game of any NFL team (12.6). Odds are good that the Bengals will continue their string of multiple-turnover games against a Ravens offense that is currently giving up more than two turnovers per game, especially if the Ravens have to go all-pass early on to keep up with the high-powered Cincinnati offense. If you’re lucky enough to have the Bengals on your roster, start them with confidence this week. With any luck they’ll shut out the Ravens, or hold them to a few field goals.

Seattle vs. Arizona

Kurt Warner will likely be starting against the Hawks this week, and he is easily one of the most sack-able QBs in the NFL. With the utter lack of a running game in the desert, and Anquan Boldin likely to miss this week nine matchup, the Hawks should have no problem double-teaming Larry Fitzgerald and still coming after Warner with an endless barrage of blitz packages. Don’t be surprised if the Hawks come out of week nine having improved their third-ranked sack total (23) by five or six additional sacks.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Atlanta vs. Miami

Atlanta is tied for second in the league for total sacks thus far in 2005 (24). They don’t have the best matchup this week, but they should be a safe start week-in and week-out no matter who they play.

Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay

Pittsburgh is in the same situation as Atlanta: Great defense with a mediocre matchup. Green Bay is not winning a lot of games, but the Packers aren’t giving up that many points to fantasy defenses, either. The Steelers have a good enough defense that they are at least a decent play against virtually any offense.

Indianapolis vs. New England

Again, this is the same situation as you find with Atlanta and Pittsburgh. The Colts have the highest-scoring fantasy defense in the league, but they have a pretty horrible matchup against their arch-rival, the Patriots. You can start them, but don’t expect the huge numbers they have been putting up thus far in 2005.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

Questions or comments for Patrick? Post your thoughts in the Cafe’s forums!