Team Defenses: Week 14

For many fantasy teams, this week is either the last chance to make the playoffs or round one of your fantasy playoff schedule. So every point is critical. It has been a pretty good season for picking fantasy defenses according to my formula. I get several private messages every Monday thanking me for helping fantasy players squeak out a win on the back of a 15 point defensive performance. As the season winds down, there will be three more installments of this article and my weekly “Best Defenses” thread in the café forums. So without further ado, let’s tackle week 14:

Stud Plays (5 stars):

Seattle v. San Francisco

The Seattle defensive performance last week ranks right up there with one of the best fantasy performances of all-time at any position. They scored better than 40 fantasy points in most formats, and even more in formats that award huge points for shut-outs and defensive touchdowns. This should be another good week for the ‘Hawks defense. I would not expect another 40+ point performance, but the 2005 San Francisco 49ers are one of the worst “road teams” of the decade. They held close to Seattle in San Francisco earlier this year, but I fully expect a blowout in Seattle as the Seahawks make their push to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Do not be surprised if the ‘Hawks come up with another defensive touchdown this week, as well as three turnovers and five quarterback sacks.

Excellent Plays (4 stars):

Denver v. Baltimore

Much like the Washington Redskins, the Denver Broncos have a much better real life defense than fantasy defense. They only allow 18.4 points per game and have recovered a total of 28 turnovers in 2005 (4th in the NFL), but their pass rush is abysmal, having only taken down opposing quarterbacks 18 times in 2005 (tied for last in the NFL). The good news for the Broncos is that they play in perhaps the toughest stadium for opposing teams to travel into. To further sweeten the deal in week 14, they draw the Baltimore Ravens, who bring to town one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Ravens score only 13.4 points per game (31st in the NFL - ahead of only the Jets). They also give up better than two turnovers and three sacks per game. I’m predicting the Broncos hold the Ravens under 14 points, while picking up four turnovers and two sacks.

Pittsburgh v. Chicago

The Steelers are battling San Diego and Kansas City for the wildcard spots in the AFC. They need a win this week, and they will need a big performance out of their defense, because their offense will struggle against Chicago. The Chicago offense is fairly anemic though, so I fully expect Pittsburgh to come up big at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game be the low scoring game of the week. I feel Pittsburgh will hold the Bears under 14 points and will likely pick up three turnovers and three sacks. The chance for a defensive touchdown is high in Pittsburgh as well.

Good Plays (3 stars):

Atlanta v. New Orleans

The Saints, on average, score 15.2 points per game. They lead the league in turnovers given up (32) and rank 8th in the league for most sacks given up per game (2.67). Atlanta’s defense can be scored on. They give up an average of 19.8 points per game, but they also have an excellent pass rush which averages close to three sacks per contest. With this game is being played in Atlanta, and I fully expect the Falcons’ defense to show up big at home as they try to secure one of the NFC wildcard spots. The only thing keeping the Falcons from being an excellent play this week is the fact that the game is being played on Monday Night Football against a team that they typically struggle with. But according to the numbers, the Falcons should win this game easily, and pick up double digit fantasy points on defense in the process.

Tennessee v. Houston

The Houston Texans give up, on average, 4.58 sacks per game. The one bright spot on the Tennessee defense is their pass rush. The game is being played in Tennessee. Enough said.

Decent Plays (2 stars):

Carolina v. Tampa Bay

This game is being played in Carolina, and the Panthers are looking to take one step closer to the NFC South division title - and a guaranteed playoff berth. Their strongest competition within the division is Tampa, and a win here goes a long way towards putting the victor in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s offense is not bad, and they will look to pound the ball on Carolina to keep the high-powered Carolina offense off the field. But I’m not sure they will have success. Most weeks, Carolina is a “good play” at worst, but with the playoff implications of this game, and the emergence of Chris Simms as a decent quarterback, I think they are relegated to the role of “decent play” this week. If you have Carolina on defense, don’t be afraid to play them, but if you can pick up a team like Denver off the waiver wire, I would.

Cincinnati v. Cleveland

At home in this rivalry game, I expect Cincinnati to go up big by halftime. Which will force Cleveland into a passing mode early. Teams playing from behind, especially horrible teams playing from behind, have a tendency to give up interceptions as they try to force their way back onto the scoreboard. There is no secondary in the NFL more capable of picking the ball off than the Cincinnati Bengals. They lead the league in turnovers, and they should have a field day at home against their most hated rivals. Look for them to be on the receiving end of four turnovers, with a couple of sacks thrown in for good measure. The only reason I do not have the Bengals ranked as a “good” or “excellent” play is that this game tends to be a lot closer than anyone expected every year. The Bengals could easily win this one with a final score of 30 – 35. So, if your league deducts a lot of points for points scored against, beware that this game is a trap game year in and year out. Regardless of that fact though, I would play Cincinnati if I had them on my roster.

Minnesota v. St. Louis

Only the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings have given up more sacks per game than the St. Louis Rams. That does not spell good things for a young quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick appears to be the quarterback for the Rams until Marc Bulger gets back into the line-up. In a game and a half he has been sacked eight times and he has fumbled twice. I am smelling a defensive touchdown for the Vikings this week, as they look to make perhaps the most improbable playoff run in years. There are currently five teams in the NFC with better records than the Vikings. If they can keep winning games, a playoff berth is not beyond the realm of possibility, and with all the big names on that defense, I think this is the week the defensive unit steps up and shuts down a quality opponent in a big game.

Oakland v. NY Jets

This game is a classic example of a horrible defense matching up against a horrible offense. This could be perhaps one of the sloppiest games in NFL history, and that means sacks, interceptions, fumbles, and defensive scores. The Jets are dead last in the NFL in terms of points scored per game. They are tied for 4th for most turnovers AND most sacks given up in 2005. Simply put, the Jets’ offense is only slightly better than my local elementary school’s flag football team. Oakland should be able to take advantage of them.

Chicago v. Pittsburgh

Not a good matchup for the Bears on the road, but if you have the league’s best defense on your fantasy roster, I don’t believe you can sit them - ever.

 
Patrick Lindsey is an experienced fantasy owner and longtime Cafe member whose statistical formula to calculate the best fantasy defenses on a weekly basis has been a mainstay in the Cafe’s forums for the past two years. You’ll find him posting there as Plindsey88.

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