The Value of a Rookie

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When first overall pick Alex Smith signed a six-year $49.5 million contract with a $24 million signing bonus, fantasy owners of Cadillac Williams, and other highly drafted rookies breathed a sigh of relief. Smith’s contract set the bar and allowed for other high draft picks to sign with their respective teams and report to training camp (with the notable exception of Cedric Benson, who only now agreed to a deal with the Bears), giving them a fair chance to show coaches why they deserve to start. But really, how much stock can you put in a player who has never played a single down in the NFL? While it is impossible to predict the future, taking a look at the first rounds of the last five NFL drafts helps.

2000

Peter Warrick (4th overall), Jamal Lewis (5), Thomas Jones (7), Plaxico Burress (8), Travis Taylor (10), Ron Dayne (11), Bubba Franks (14), Chad Pennington (18), Shaun Alexander (19), Sylvester Morris (22), Anthony Becht (27), R. Jay Soward (29), Trung Canidate (31)

The standouts in this first round are RBs Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis, two players who are now stars in the NFL. The other three RBs taken, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, and Trung Canidate, have had careers that can best be described as mediocre. Five receivers were taken in the first round, and all of them have underachieved in the NFL. Burress continues to frustrate owners by dropping easy passes and has had a wildly inconsistent career, although now he has a chance to turn things around in New York. Travis Taylor never amounted to much in Baltimore and is now fighting for a starting job in Minnesota. Warrick had a solid season in 2003 with the Bengals and was on his way to becoming a good fantasy reciever when he suffered a season-ending injury after four games in 2004. Sylvester Morris and R. Jay Soward were complete busts on and off the field. Two tight ends were also taken in this draft, and while both of them have been decent fantasy options, neither has been spectacular. Chad Pennington, the lone first-round quarterback, has been plagued by injuries his past few seasons, although he remains a solid fantasy backup. Out of 13 fantasy position players taken in the first round of the 2000 draft, only two have become stars (Alexander and Lewis), although Burress, Pennington, and Franks are solid fantasy picks this season.

2001

Vick (1st overall), LaDainian Tomlinson (5), David Terrell (8), Koren Robinson (9), Rod Gardner (15), Santana Moss (16), Deuce McAllister (23), Freddie Mitchell (25), Michael Bennett (27), Reggie Wayne (30), Todd Heap (31)

The gem of the class of 2001 is LaDainian Tomlinson, considered to be worthy of the number one pick in fantasy drafts this year. Deuce McAllister is also considered a top 10 fantasy running back. Michael Bennett flashed his potential in 2002 with 1296 yards and five TDs, but a series of injuries have plagued his career. If healthy, he’ll remain the starter (for now, at least) in Minnesota. Vick is another player who has been affected by injury and inconsistency and continues to tease fantasy owners with his amazing potential. He has yet to establish himself as an elite fantasy QB. Of the receivers, Reggie Wayne turned out to be the best with his breakout season in 2004. Koren Robinson and Rod Gardner both had productive 2002 seasons, but everything went downhill from there and now both are fighting to revive their careers. David Terrell was a complete bust with the Bears and has a slim chance of ever becoming a productive fantasy receiver. Santana Moss had a breakout year in 2003 followed by a down year in 2004. Fantasy owners are still trying to figure out which season was the real Santana Moss. Todd Heap has quickly established himself as one of the premier tight ends in the league. Out of the 11 fantasy position players taken in the first round of the 2001 draft, three (LT, Deuce, and Heap) are stars. With good 2005 seasons, Wayne and Vick could also move into that category. Bennett and Moss remain decent fantasy options.

2002

David Carr (1st overall), Joey Harrington (3), Donte’ Stallworth (13), Jeremy Shockey (14), William Green (16), T.J. Duckett (18), Ashley Lelie (19), Javon Walker (20), Daniel Graham (21), Jerramy Stevens (28), Patrick Ramsey (32)

The class of 2002 features a number of players who have underachieved or have yet to fully breakout. David Carr is surrounded by an improving Texans team but a weak offensive line. Although he has never thrown more than 16 TD passes in a year, he is making progress and will most likely become a good fantasy QB in the years to come. Detroit has become impatient with Harrington’s performance and if he does not produce this year he will likely be unseated as the starter by Jeff Garcia. Patrick Ramsey has had three mediocre seasons in Washington but remains the starter entering this season. Javon Walker was a top 10 fantasy receiver last year; fortunately for his owners, his threatened holdout didn’t come to pass. Stallworth and Lelie both have yet to become stars in the NFL and have been inconsistent in their performance, although Lelie managed to top 1000 yards receiving for the first time last year. William Green had some off the field issues and is now #3 on the depth charts in Cleveland while Duckett is still stuck behind Warrick Dunn in Atlanta, although he is a quality fantasy backup. Of the three tight ends drafted, one is now an elite TE (Shockey), one is on his way to becoming a good TE (Graham), and one has been a complete bust (Stevens). Out of the 11 fantasy position players taken in the first round of the 2002 draft, only two are stars at their positions (Shockey and Walker), but Duckett, Carr, Harrington, Stallworth, Lelie, and Graham all are decent fantasy options and have a chance to become more.

2003

Carson Palmer (1st overall), Charles Rogers (2), Andre Johnson (3), Byron Leftwich (7), Bryant Johnson (17), Kyle Boller (19), Rex Grossman (22), Willis McGahee (23), Dallas Clark (24), Larry Johnson (26)

Willis McGahee was one of the riskier picks of this first round, but it paid off for the Bills and now he is a fantasy star. Andre Johnson is also considered a top 15 reciever and should only get better. Rogers has suffered two injuries each of the past two seasons but is still considered a backup fantasy WR. If he can stay healthy this year who knows what kind of numbers he will put up. Bryant Johnson has yet to blossom in Arizona and is stuck being a backup to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, although he showed improvement last year. Larry Johnson is currently backing up Priest Holmes in Kansas City but should be a solid performer once Holmes retires or misses time because of an injury. He played well last year while filling in for Holmes. Clark finally has the tight end position to himself in Indianapolis and should put up some nice numbers in that offense. Of the four QBs taken, Palmer and Leftwich are well on their way to NFL stardom while Boller and Grossman are still stuck in neutral, neither of them doing anything so far to justify having used a first round draft pick on them. All four QBs, however, are the starters of their respective teams. Of the ten fantasy position players taken in the first round of the 2003 draft, two (McGahee and Andre Johnson) are already stars and Palmer and Leftwich will become stars soon enough. Rogers, Clark, Boller, and Larry Johnson are decent fantasy options.

2004

Eli Manning (1st overall), Larry Fitzgerald (3), Philip Rivers (4), Kellen Winslow Jr. (6), Roy Williams (7), Reggie Williams (9), Ben Roethlisberger (11), Lee Evans (13), Michael Clayton (15), JP Losman (22), Steven Jackson (24), Chris Perry (26), Michael Jenkins (29), Kevin Jones (30), Rashaun Woods (31), Ben Watson (32)

The 2004 rookie class was a strong one and included many players who instantly put up good numbers. Roy Williams, although he missed time due to injury, was still a good fantasy option last year and should get even better this year. Michael Clayton was exceptional with the Bucs and Lee Evans provided the Bills with a nice deep threat, scoring nine TDs. Big Ben Roethlisberger led the Steelers to 15 wins and a playoff birth and, although his fantasy numbers aren’t eye-catching, he is a solid fantasy backup who should continue to improve. Eli Manning had a rough 2004 season but he enters this year as the starter in New York and is full of potential. Fitzgerald had a nice rookie year with the Cardinals and looks to improve on his 780 yards and eight TDs this year. Kevin Jones got off to a slow start but emerged as a fantasy star in Detroit with some huge games at the end of the season and is considered a top 15 RB this year. Although he spent 2004 backing up Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson saw considerable action and is now the starter in St. Louis. It is too early to judge many of the players due to lack of playing time – JP Losman, Chris Perry, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, Ben Watson, and Reggie Williams. So far, the only real bust of the draft is Winslow (the guy screwed up and ruined his 2005 season and possibly his football career), although Ben Watson, Chris Perry, and Philip Rivers aren’t headed in the right direction. Of the 16 fantasy position players taken in the first round of the 2004 draft, two (Jones and Clayton) are already stars and 10 others are currently starters on their teams. Fitzgerald, Williams, Roethlisberger, Evans, and Jackson are one good year away from stardom.

So what does all this mean? Well, if you break down the first-round rookies from 2000-2004 by position, you will find some interesting results. Out of 13 QBs, there was only one who was really a bust (Ramsey, although Grossman and Boller haven’t done that much either but have played a year less), and even he has a small chance of turning things around. I also found out, however, that there were no real fantasy stars, just a bunch of players who fall in the middle of the curve but who are maturing and on their way to becoming stars. This confirms that QBs take a long time to mature and, while every once in a while a Ryan Leaf comes along, it’s hard for an NFL team to draft a really bad QB. Fantasy owners beware, however: don’t rely heavily upon a rookie QB.

First-round running backs usually met expectations and matured quicker than QBs. Of the 15 RBs selected, six of them became stars in a season or two and four others are capable of doing so as well once they become full-time starters (Duckett, Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Bennett). There were only three absolute flops (Canidate, Dayne, and Williams Green), although Thomas Jones may soon be out of the picture in Chicago and Perry will struggle for playing time in Cincinnati. Overall, rookie RBs are usually good picks for fantasy owners.

Tight ends were all over the place. Jerramy Stevens and Winslow are busts while Shockey and Heap have become stars. The other five fall somewhere in the middle, decent but not great either, worthy of a backup or maybe even a starter spot on your team (except for Ben Watson, who is too hard to judge because of limited playing time his first season). Don’t expect too much from a rookie TE, but, barring off the field issues or injury, he should be a decent producer.

Wide recievers are an interesting case. Last year’s rookie receiver class was one of the best ever and boasts more than a few future stars. Fantasy owners are busy scouting this year’s freshmen for another Michael Clayton or Lee Evans. Be warned though: don’t spend a high pick on a rookie receiver. For every Michael Clayton there is a Sylvester Morris, and it’s hard to tell who is for real and who is a dud. Of the 24 receivers taken in the first round of the past five drafts, less than half are quality fantasy options entering this season.

Will Cedric Benson be a Shaun Alexander or a Ron Dayne? Will Braylon Edwards be an R. Jay Soward or an Andre Johnson? Time will tell.

 
Mike (who posts on the cafe as steelerfan04) is a lifelong Steelers fan and hopes that rookie Heath Miller will follow the path of Todd Heap rather than Kellen Winslow Jr.