Start & SitNovember 10, 2006

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Week 10

By Nick Hopkins

The NFL proved to be as predicatable as ever in week 9. How many experts had the Dolphins shellacking the Bears in Chicago? Or the Skins kicking a game-winning field goal with zero seconds on the clock to beat Dallas? Or the Lions and 49ers coming out with wins against the Falcons and Vikings? Then again, some players had predictably spectacular games, notably Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Javon Walker. Needless to say these players should be in your lineup this week, but you may have questions about the rest of your roster. Hopefully, the Cafe’s Week 10 Start & Sit will help you answer those questions. Good luck!

Our revised system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.


Peyton Manning – INDvs BUF16.52.38.8
Donovan McNabb – PHIvs WAS15.83.08.8
Marc Bulger – STLat SEA14.83.58.3
Jon Kitna – DETvs SF14.53.07.5
Tom Brady – NEvs NYJ14.53.37.8
Drew Brees – NOat PIT14.33.57.8
Tony Romo – DALat ARI14.03.57.5
Damon Huard – KCat MIA13.53.36.8
Brett Favre – GBat MIN13.03.86.8
Michael Vick – ATLvs CLE13.04.07.0
Jake Delhomme – CARvs TB13.04.07.0
Philip Rivers – SDat CIN12.83.86.5
Seneca Wallace – SEAvs STL12.83.86.5
Steve McNair – BALat TEN12.53.56.0
David Garrard – JACvs HOU12.03.85.8
Joey Harrington – MIAvs KC12.04.36.3
Jake Plummer – DENat OAK12.04.56.5
Carson Palmer – CINvs SD12.05.07.0
Chad Pennington – NYJat NE11.54.56.0
Eli Manning – NYGvs CHI11.55.36.8
Rex Grossman – CHIat NYG11.35.56.8
Alex Smith – SFat DET11.04.85.8
Brad Johnson – MINvs GB10.54.55.0
David Carr – HOUat JAC10.55.35.8
Matt Leinart – ARIvs DAL10.55.56.0
Ben Roethlisberger – PITvs NO10.55.56.0
Mark Brunell – WASat PHI10.35.05.3
Charlie Frye – CLEat Atl9.06.05.0
Bruce Gradkowski – TBat CAR8.85.84.5
JP Losman – BUFat IND8.06.84.8
Vince Young – TENvs BAL7.57.04.5
Andrew Walter – OAKvs DEN6.37.33.5
Kyle Boller – BALat SEA2.39.01.3
Charlie Batch – PITvs NO2.09.51.5
Daunte Culpepper – MIAvs KC0.59.80.3
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAvs STL0.39.80.0

Jon Kitna, DET (14.5 rating): Kitna has done a good job taking advantage of the weapons he has in Detroit. The former Bengal is on pace to go over 4000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first year in the Motor City. Coming off a 321 yard game against the Falcons, Kitna should be ready to take advantage of a game against a much weaker Niner defense.

Rex Grossman, CHI (11.3 rating): Grossman has been up and down this year, making him a very risky fantasy start. He looked downright awful at times last week against the Dolphins. The Giants may be missing Michael Strahan from their defense, but they are still pretty respectable overall. Counting on Grossman as a fantasy starter this week is a risky proposition.

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDat CIN17.52.09.5
Larry Johnson – KCat MIA16.82.39.0
Kevin Jones – DETvs SF15.82.38.0
Steven Jackson – STLat SEA15.32.88.0
Willie Parker – PITvs NO14.53.07.5
Julius Jones – DALat ARI14.33.37.5
Brian Westbrook – PHIvs WAS14.33.57.8
Chester Taylor – MINvs GB13.83.37.0
Clinton Portis – WASat PHI13.83.87.5
Ronnie Brown – MIAvs KC13.53.57.0
Mike Bell – DENat OAK13.34.07.3
Corey Dillon – NEvs NYJ13.03.56.5
Frank Gore – SFat DET13.03.86.8
Tiki Barber – NYGvs CHI13.04.37.3
Warrick Dunn – ATLvs CLE12.83.56.3
Jamal Lewis – BALat TEN12.83.86.5
Fred Taylor – JACvs HOU12.54.57.0
Rudi Johnson – CINvs SD12.34.87.0
Deuce McAllister – NOat PIT12.04.06.0
DeShaun Foster – CARvs TB12.04.56.5
Ahman Green – GBat MIN12.04.86.8
Joseph Addai – INDvs BUF11.84.36.0
Thomas Jones – CHIat NYG11.84.56.3
Laurence Maroney – NEvs NYJ11.34.55.8
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACvs HOU11.04.85.8
Maurice Morris – SEAvs STL10.84.55.3
Cadillac Williams – TBat CAR10.85.05.8
Marion Barber – DALat ARI10.85.36.0
Wali Lundy – HOUat JAC10.55.05.5
Reuben Droughns – CLEat Atl10.34.85.0
Edgerrin James – ARIvs DAL10.35.35.5
Reggie Bush – NOat PIT9.35.54.8
Leon Washington – NYJat NE9.35.54.8
Dominic Rhodes – INDvs BUF9.05.34.3
Travis Henry – TENvs BAL8.56.85.3
Jerious Norwood – ATLvs CLE7.86.84.5
LaMont Jordan – OAKvs DEN7.56.54.0
Cedric Benson – CHIat NYG7.56.84.3
DeAngelo Williams – CARvs TB7.57.04.5
Brandon Jacobs – NYGvs CHI7.57.04.5
Tatum Bell – DENat OAK6.87.34.0
Musa Smith – BALat TEN6.57.03.5
Kevan Barlow – NYJat NE6.57.03.5
Michael Turner – SDat CIN6.57.03.5
Anthony Thomas – BUFat IND6.06.52.5
Najeh Davenport – PITvs NO6.06.82.8
Correll Buckhalter – PHIvs WAS5.57.02.5
Ladell Betts – WASat PHI5.07.02.0
Jerome Harrison – CLEat Atl5.07.82.8
Chris Perry – CINvs SD5.08.03.0
Vernand Morency – GBat MIN4.88.02.8
Mike Anderson – BALat TEN4.58.32.8
Lendale White – TENvs BAL4.58.32.8
Justin Fargas – OAKvs DEN4.07.81.8
Cedric Houston – NYJat NE4.08.02.0
Samkon Gado – HOUat JAC3.88.01.8
Ron Dayne – HOUat JAC3.88.32.0
Noah Herron – GBat MIN3.88.52.3
Chris Brown – TENvs BAL2.88.81.5
Michael Robinson – SFat DET2.58.51.0

Frank Gore, SF (13.0 rating): Gore has put up pretty good numbers in the past two weeks despite playing two of the toughest run defenses in the league in Chicago and Minnesota. Detroit may not be a total cupcake, but their run defense should be enough of a reprieve for Gore to have a good game.

Edgerrin James, ARI (10.3 rating): Edge’s troubles this year have been well-documented. He simply is not getting any push from his offensive line. Allthough he has performed a bit better recently, I would not expect a good performance from him against the Cowboys. Dallas has a very good defense, shutting down Clinton Portis last week apart from one long run. The return of Larry Fitzgerald may also steal some redzone opportunities from Edge.

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Roy Williams – DETvs SF16.02.38.3
Torry Holt – STLat SEA16.02.58.5
Steve Smith – CARvs TB16.02.88.8
Marvin Harrison – INDvs BUF15.52.58.0
Terrell Owens – DALat ARI15.52.88.3
Javon Walker – DENat OAK15.32.88.0
Marques Colston – NOat PIT15.03.08.0
Reggie Wayne – INDvs BUF14.82.87.5
Deion Branch – SEAvs STL14.53.07.5
Andre Johnson – HOUat JAC14.03.07.0
Darrell Jackson – SEAvs STL14.03.37.3
Anquan Boldin – ARIvs DAL13.83.57.3
Donald Driver – GBat MIN13.33.56.8
Reggie Brown – PHIvs WAS12.83.86.5
Antonio Bryant – SFat DET12.83.86.5
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINvs SD12.84.57.3
Chris Chambers – MIAvs KC12.53.86.3
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIat NYG12.54.36.8
Hines Ward – PITvs NO12.33.55.8
Doug Gabriel – NEvs NYJ12.33.86.0
Lee Evans – BUFat IND12.34.06.3
Joey Galloway – TBat CAR12.04.56.5
Eddie Kennison – KCat MIA11.84.36.0
Laveranues Coles – NYJat NE11.84.36.0
Isaac Bruce – STLat SEA11.84.36.0
Braylon Edwards – CLEat Atl11.84.56.3
Mike Furrey – DETvs SF11.84.56.3
Greg Jennings – GBat MIN11.84.56.3
Chad Johnson – CINvs SD11.55.06.5
Terry Glenn – DALat ARI11.35.06.3
Donte’ Stallworth – PHIvs WAS11.35.36.5
Keyshawn Johnson – CARvs TB11.04.55.5
Matt Jones – JACvs HOU11.04.85.8
Chris Henry – CINvs SD11.05.36.3
Reggie Williams – JACvs HOU10.84.85.5
Ernest Wilford – JACvs HOU10.85.05.8
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJat NE10.85.56.3
Reche Caldwell – NEvs NYJ10.54.34.8
Derrick Mason – BALat TEN10.34.34.5
Troy Brown – NEvs NYJ10.34.54.8
Marty Booker – MIAvs KC10.34.85.0
Keenan McCardell – SDat CIN10.04.84.8
Chad Jackson – NEvs NYJ10.05.05.0
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIvs DAL10.05.85.8
Plaxico Burress – NYGvs CHI10.06.06.0
Eric Parker – SDat CIN9.84.84.5
Troy Williamson – MINvs GB9.85.35.0
Randy Moss – OAKvs DEN9.86.05.8
Mark Clayton – BALat TEN9.55.34.8
Eric Moulds – HOUat JAC9.35.34.5
Travis Taylor – MINvs GB9.35.34.5
Nate Washington – PITvs NO9.35.54.8
Nate Burleson – SEAvs STL9.05.54.5
Michael Jenkins – ATLvs CLE9.06.35.3
Joe Horn – NOat PIT9.07.06.0
Wes Welker – MIAvs KC8.85.54.3
Santonio Holmes – PITvs NO8.85.84.5
Bryant Johnson – ARIvs DAL8.86.04.8
Drew Bennett – TENvs BAL8.56.34.8
Rod Smith – DENat OAK8.36.34.5
Michael Clayton – TBat CAR8.36.34.5
Antwaan Randle El – WASat PHI8.05.83.8
Brandon Stokely – INDvs BUF7.85.83.5
Sammie Parker – KCat MIA7.86.03.8
Arnaz Battle – SFat DET7.86.34.0
Joe Jurevicius – CLEat Atl7.86.54.3
Roscoe Parrish – BUFat IND7.56.33.8
Brandon Lloyd – WASat PHI7.56.33.8
Hank Baskett – PHIvs WAS7.36.33.5
Roddy White – ATLvs CLE7.07.04.0
Dennis Northcutt – CLEat Atl6.57.03.5
Marcus Robinson – MINvs GB6.37.03.3
Justin McCareins – NYJat NE6.37.03.3
Ashley Lelie – ATLvs CLE6.37.84.0
David Givens – TENvs BAL5.87.53.3
Josh Reed – BUFat IND4.57.31.8
Bobby Engram – SEAvs STL4.57.82.3
Santana Moss – WASat PHI4.08.82.8
Bernard Berrian – CHIat NYG2.09.51.5

Donald Driver, GB (13.3 rating): Greg Jennings being banged up has prompted Driver to step up his game these last three weeks. Favre and Driver seem to have reconnected. The Pack will probably be passing alot against the Vikings this week, so Driver should be a good start.

Randy Moss, OAK (9.8 rating): Moss gave his owners a glimmer of hope three weeks ago with a 129 yards and a touchdown, but since then he has been back to his inconsistent ways. And this week not only will have the Raiders’ quarterback problems to deal with, he will be going up against Champ Bailey.

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Alge Crumpler – ATLvs CLE16.01.87.8
Antonio Gates – SDat CIN15.03.08.0
Tony Gonzalez – KCat MIA14.82.57.3
Todd Heap – BALat TEN14.52.57.0
Jason Witten – DALat ARI14.32.56.8
Jeremy Shockey – NYGvs CHI13.33.87.0
Kellen Winslow – CLEat Atl12.83.36.0
Ben Watson – NEvs NYJ12.83.56.3
LJ Smith – PHIvs WAS12.33.86.0
Randy McMichael – MIAvs KC12.03.85.8
Heath Miller – PITvs NO11.83.55.3
Desmond Clark – CHIat NYG11.84.36.0
Owen Daniels – HOUat JAC11.84.56.3
Chris Cooley – WASat PHI11.84.56.3
Dallas Clark – INDvs BUF11.54.05.5
George Wrighster – JACvs HOU11.33.85.0
David Martin – GBat MIN9.34.84.0
Jeremy Stevens – SEAvs STL9.35.04.3
Bubba Franks – GBat MIN9.35.34.5
Jermaine Wiggins – MINvs GB9.05.04.0
Eric Johnson – SFat DET9.05.34.3
Kris Mangum – CARvs TB8.55.84.3
Marcus Pollard – DETvs SF8.35.53.8
Chris Baker – NYJat NE8.05.83.8
Stephen Alexander – DENat OAK8.06.04.0
Alex Smith – TBat CAR7.86.03.8
Daniel Graham – NEvs NYJ7.55.83.3
Ben Utecht – INDvs BUF7.56.33.8
John Gilmore – CHIat NYG7.36.33.5
Bryan Fletcher – INDvs BUF7.05.82.8
Dan Campbell – DETvs SF7.06.03.0
Itula Mili – SEAvs STL7.06.03.0
Courtney Anderson – OAKvs DEN6.86.02.8
Reggie Kelly – CINvs SD6.36.32.5
Ben Troupe – TENvs BAL6.36.52.8
Bo Scaife – TENvs BAL6.06.82.8
Anthony Becht – TBat CAR5.87.02.8
Mike Sellers – WASat PHI5.56.82.3
Jeb Putzier – HOUat JAC5.07.32.3
Adam Bergen – ARIvs DAL3.57.81.3

Ben Watson, NE (12.8 rating): After a relatively dissapointing start, Watson seems to have found a connection with Brady recently, going over 50 yards in his last three games. Look for him to add another solid start against the Jets.

Owen Daniels, HOU (11.8 rating): The rookie has been quite a surprise last year, and has proven he is startable in most leagues. However, there are better plays than Daniels this week. The rookie is going to have to play a Jacksonville defense on the road. The Jags will be looking for revenge against the Texans for the beatdown they handed Jacksonville just three weeks ago.

Jeff Wilkins – STLat SEA14.83.07.8
Adam Vinatieri – INDvs BUF14.52.36.8
Jason Elam – DENat OAK14.32.56.8
Josh Brown – SEAvs STL13.83.06.8
Josh Scobee – JACvs HOU13.52.56.0
Matt Stover – BALat TEN13.52.86.3
Nate Kaeding – SDat CIN13.53.06.5
Robbie Gould – CHIat NYG13.33.06.3
Lawrence Tynes – KCat MIA13.02.85.8
David Akers – PHIvs WAS13.03.06.0
John Kasay – CARvs TB13.03.36.3
Mike Vanderjagt – DALat ARI13.03.56.5
John Carney – NOat PIT13.03.56.5
Stephen Gostkowski – NEvs NYJ12.33.35.5
Jason Hanson – DETvs SF12.33.55.8
Morten Andersen – ATLvs CLE12.33.86.0
Dave Rayner – GBat MIN12.33.86.0
Neil Rackers – ARIvs DAL11.84.36.0
Shayne Graham – CINvs SD11.34.05.3
Ryan Longwell – MINvs GB11.04.35.3
Nick Novak – WASat PHI11.04.55.5
Jay Feely – NYGvs CHI11.04.85.8
Rian Lindell – BUFat IND10.84.04.8
Jeff Reed – PITvs NO10.54.34.8
Phil Dawson – CLEat Atl10.54.55.0
Olindo Mare – MIAvs KC10.34.54.8
Joe Nedney – SFat DET9.84.84.5
Matt Bryant – TBat CAR9.85.35.0
Mike Nugent – NYJat NE9.55.34.8
Kris Brown – HOUat JAC9.05.54.5
Rob Bironas – TENvs BAL8.56.34.8
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKvs DEN7.36.33.5
Michael Koenen – ATLvs CLE2.58.81.3

Jason Elam, DEN (14.3 rating): Elam is one of the better kickers in the league, and gets a matchup this week that is usually conducive to good numbers from the kicker. The resurgent Denver offense will go up against a Raiders team that is good, but will still be put into situations that allow the offense to score points. The Raiders have given up 19 field goals this season, tied for most in the NFL.

Jeff Reed, PIT (10.5 rating): The Steelers continue to struggle on offense, as does Reed himself. The Steelers’ kicker has hit only two of his five field goals of 40 yards or longer this season.

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Baltimoreat TEN17.01.88.8
Denverat OAK17.01.88.8
Jacksonvillevs HOU14.32.87.0
Chicagoat NYG13.84.07.8
Atlantavs CLE13.53.36.8
New Englandvs NYJ13.33.56.8
Dallasat ARI12.83.86.5
San Diegoat CIN12.84.06.8
Indianapolisvs BUF12.33.35.5
Carolinavs TB12.34.06.3
Philadelphiavs WAS12.34.36.5
Kansas Cityat MIA12.03.85.8
New Orleansat PIT11.54.05.5
New York Giantsvs CHI11.54.35.8
Detroitvs SF11.34.55.8
Miamivs KC11.34.55.8
Minnesotavs GB11.04.85.8
Pittsburghvs NO10.85.05.8
Tampa Bayat CAR9.55.55.0
Seattlevs STL9.55.85.3
Green Bayat MIN9.35.34.5
Cincinnativs SD8.86.04.8
St. Louisat SEA8.86.35.0
New York Jetsat NE8.35.84.0
Arizonavs DAL8.06.54.5
Washingtonat PHI8.06.54.5
Houstonat JAC7.85.53.3
San Franciscoat DET7.56.33.8
Clevelandat Atl7.06.53.5
Buffaloat IND7.06.83.8
Oaklandvs DEN6.86.83.5
Tennesseevs BAL6.06.82.8

Denver (17.0 rating): The talented defense gets a dream matchup this week against Oakland. The Raiders have given up the most sacks this season by far. Their total of 44 sacks allowed leads the NFL by 15! The Raiders have also turned the ball over the second most times in the league.

Pittsburgh (10.8 rating): Pittsburgh still has a solid defense, but nothing seems to be going right for the black and gold. No one has been able to stop the high-flying Saints offense recently, so while the Steelers may get a boost from playing at home, it is hard for me to advise starting them in your fantasy league.

Special thanks to lmcjaho, dream_017, Kilroy1872, Leber, logan, madaslives911, mattb47 and SwiperNoSwiping for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
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