Start & SitNovember 16, 2006


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Week 11

By Nick Hopkins

Week 10 in the NFL saw some huge performances from several players, leaving some fantasy owners overjoyed, and some left picking up the pieces. Ocho-Cinco finally broke out in Cincinnati, hooking up with Carson Palmer for over 200 yards and a couple of scores. Donald Driver and Steve Smith also represented the wide receivers well, with 191 and 149 yards respectively. Willie Parker put on a show at Heinz field. And the great LaDainian Tomlinson continued to be a touchdown machine, recording his 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th touchdowns of the year! Hopefully you were not the poor soul caught matched up against one (or more) of these guys last week. Unfortunately, you can’t control who you line up against, but you can control who makes it into your own lineup. Without further adieu, the Cafe offers its own humble lineup advice, with this week’s Start & Sit.

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

QuarterbacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Donovan McNabb – PHIvs TEN16.32.08.3
Peyton Manning – INDat DAL15.73.08.7
Carson Palmer – CINat NO15.03.38.3
Drew Brees – NOvs CIN14.72.77.3
Rex Grossman – CHIat NYJ14.03.37.3
Tom Brady – NEat GB13.73.37.0
Marc Bulger – STLat CAR13.34.78.0
Jake Delhomme – CARvs STL13.04.37.3
Brett Favre – GBvs NE12.75.07.7
Philip Rivers – SDat DEN12.34.06.3
Matt Leinart – ARIvs DET12.34.36.7
Jon Kitna – DETat ARI12.34.77.0
Ben Roethlisberger – PITat CLE12.04.36.3
Tony Romo – DALvs IND12.04.76.7
Eli Manning – NYGat JAC11.74.36.0
Bruce Gradkowski – TBvs WAS11.34.76.0
Seneca Wallace – SEAat PHI11.05.06.0
Steve McNair – BALvs ATL10.35.35.7
Jake Plummer – DENvs SD10.35.35.7
Joey Harrington – MIAvs MIN10.35.35.7
Brad Johnson – MINat MIA9.75.35.0
Michael Vick – ATLat BAL9.76.36.0
David Carr – HOUvs BUF9.35.75.0
Alex Smith – SFvs SEA9.36.05.3
Trent Green – KCvs OAK9.36.76.0
David Garrard – JACvs NYG9.06.35.3
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAat SF9.06.35.3
Vince Young – TENat PHI8.76.35.0
JP Losman – BUFat HOU8.06.04.0
Charlie Frye – CLEvs PIT8.06.34.3
Andrew Walter – OAKat KC7.76.34.0
Chad Pennington – NYJvs CHI7.76.74.3
Aaron Brooks – OAKat KC6.77.03.7
Jason Campbell – WASat TB6.37.74.0
Mark Brunell – WASat TB2.09.01.0

 
Start:
Drew Brees, NO (14.7 rating): Brees has to be licking his chops after seeing what his former team was able to do to the Cincinnati Bengals defense last week. Sensational rookie Marques Colston has picked up the slack for New Orleans while Joe Horn has been out with an injury, but if Horn is able to play this week, Brees becomes an even better start. In his last 5 games, Brees has tossed 12 touchdown passes while only throwing 5 interceptions. Look for his success to continue against the Bengals’ 28th ranked passing defense.

Sit:
Michael Vick, ATL (9.7 rating): The Michael Vick bandwagon has quickly come to a halt after two straight weeks in which the Falcons quarterback has really struggled throwing the ball. Not surprisingly, Atlanta lost both of those games… to Detroit and Cleveland. The thing that allowed Vick to remain a viable fantasy player during this time was his running ability, as he racked up 154 yards on the ground in those two games. However, I expect finding running room will be a bit more difficult against Baltimore this week, so if he can’t get the passing game together, #7 could be in for a long day.
 

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Larry Johnson – KCvs OAK18.01.39.3
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDat DEN16.33.39.7
Brian Westbrook – PHIvs TEN15.72.78.3
Willie Parker – PITat CLE15.72.78.3
Julius Jones – DALvs IND14.33.07.3
Kevin Jones – DETat ARI14.03.37.3
Thomas Jones – CHIat NYJ13.73.77.3
Rudi Johnson – CINat NO13.74.38.0
Steven Jackson – STLat CAR13.34.07.3
Deuce McAllister – NOvs CIN12.74.06.7
Tiki Barber – NYGat JAC12.74.06.7
Marion Barber – DALvs IND12.74.37.0
Edgerrin James – ARIvs DET12.34.36.7
Frank Gore – SFvs SEA12.05.07.0
DeShaun Foster – CARvs STL11.34.76.0
Ahman Green – GBvs NE11.34.76.0
Fred Taylor – JACvs NYG11.34.76.0
Ladell Betts – WASat TB11.34.76.0
Joseph Addai – INDat DAL11.04.75.7
Warrick Dunn – ATLat BAL11.05.06.0
Anthony Thomas – BUFat HOU11.05.06.0
Reggie Bush – NOvs CIN11.05.06.0
Shaun Alexander – SEAat SF11.05.06.0
Corey Dillon – NEat GB11.05.36.3
Brandon Jacobs – NYGat JAC10.75.05.7
Ronnie Brown – MIAvs MIN10.75.76.3
Cadillac Williams – TBvs WAS10.35.76.0
Wali Lundy – HOUvs BUF10.05.05.0
Tatum Bell – DENvs SD10.05.35.3
Travis Henry – TENat PHI10.05.35.3
Jamal Lewis – BALvs ATL10.05.75.7
Laurence Maroney – NEat GB10.05.75.7
Chester Taylor – MINat MIA9.75.75.3
LaMont Jordan – OAKat KC9.75.75.3
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACvs NYG9.35.75.0
Maurice Morris – SEAat SF9.36.05.3
Chris Perry – CINat NO9.06.05.0
Reuben Droughns – CLEvs PIT9.06.05.0
Dominic Rhodes – INDat DAL8.76.04.7
Cedric Benson – CHIat NYJ8.35.74.0
Najeh Davenport – PITat CLE8.35.74.0
Mike Bell – DENvs SD8.36.75.0
Michael Turner – SDat DEN7.36.03.3
DeAngelo Williams – CARvs STL7.36.33.7
Ron Dayne – HOUvs BUF7.36.33.7
Samkon Gado – HOUvs BUF7.36.74.0
Kevan Barlow – NYJvs CHI7.36.74.0
Correll Buckhalter – PHIvs TEN7.06.03.0
Leon Washington – NYJvs CHI7.07.04.0
Musa Smith – BALvs ATL6.77.03.7
Jerious Norwood – ATLat BAL6.37.03.3
Mike Anderson – BALvs ATL6.37.33.7
Jerome Harrison – CLEvs PIT6.07.33.3
Justin Fargas – OAKat KC6.07.33.3
Lendale White – TENat PHI6.07.33.3
Chris Brown – TENat PHI5.77.33.0
Vernand Morency – GBvs NE5.77.73.3
Noah Herron – GBvs NE5.77.73.3
Michael Robinson – SFvs SEA5.77.73.3
Cedric Houston – NYJvs CHI5.07.72.7

 
Start:
Willie Parker, PIT (15.7 rating): It should be no secret that Willie Parker should be starting in pretty much every fantasy league this week. Fast Willie has left no doubt that he can be the featured back in the Steelers’ run-first offense, after gashing the Saints for 213 yards and two touchdowns. This week, Parker will face a Cleveland defense that is in the bottom three in the league against the run, as the Steelers fight to get back to respectability.

Sit:
Jamal Lewis, BAL (10.0 rating): Lewis has struggled mightily for Baltimore this season, perhaps holding back what could have been the Ravens’ break-out year offensively. He has only eclipsed the 20 carry mark three times this season, while averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry. The Ravens will probably look to attack Atlanta more through the air, where they have had problems, as opposed to with the running game, which the Falcons have been above average at defending.
 

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Steve Smith – CARvs STL16.32.38.7
Chad Johnson – CINat NO15.73.08.7
Marques Colston – NOvs CIN15.33.08.3
Javon Walker – DENvs SD15.03.38.3
Terrell Owens – DALvs IND14.73.78.3
Darrell Jackson – SEAat SF14.33.37.7
Donte’ Stallworth – PHIvs TEN14.33.78.0
Andre Johnson – HOUvs BUF14.03.37.3
Anquan Boldin – ARIvs DET14.03.77.7
Marvin Harrison – INDat DAL14.04.08.0
Torry Holt – STLat CAR14.04.08.0
Reggie Wayne – INDat DAL14.04.38.3
Roy Williams – DETat ARI13.73.77.3
Donald Driver – GBvs NE13.04.07.0
Deion Branch – SEAat SF13.04.07.0
Hines Ward – PITat CLE13.04.37.3
Keyshawn Johnson – CARvs STL12.74.06.7
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIvs DET12.34.36.7
Joey Galloway – TBvs WAS12.34.36.7
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIat NYJ12.04.06.0
Reche Caldwell – NEat GB12.04.36.3
Isaac Bruce – STLat CAR12.04.36.3
Mark Clayton – BALvs ATL11.74.36.0
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINat NO11.74.36.0
Plaxico Burress – NYGat JAC11.74.76.3
Eddie Kennison – KCvs OAK11.34.35.7
Lee Evans – BUFat HOU11.34.76.0
Chris Henry – CINat NO11.35.06.3
Reggie Brown – PHIvs TEN11.35.06.3
Mike Furrey – DETat ARI11.04.75.7
Braylon Edwards – CLEvs PIT11.05.06.0
Ernest Wilford – JACvs NYG11.05.06.0
Laveranues Coles – NYJvs CHI11.05.76.7
Derrick Mason – BALvs ATL10.74.75.3
Joe Horn – NOvs CIN10.75.76.3
Chris Chambers – MIAvs MIN10.35.35.7
Troy Brown – NEat GB10.35.35.7
Antonio Bryant – SFvs SEA10.35.76.0
Greg Jennings – GBvs NE10.05.35.3
Reggie Williams – JACvs NYG10.05.35.3
Rod Smith – DENvs SD9.75.35.0
Doug Gabriel – NEat GB9.76.05.7
Randy Moss – OAKat KC9.76.36.0
Michael Clayton – TBvs WAS9.75.75.3
Drew Bennett – TENat PHI9.75.75.3
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJvs CHI9.36.35.7
Michael Jenkins – ATLat BAL9.35.75.0
Terry Glenn – DALvs IND9.35.75.0
Santana Moss – WASat TB9.35.75.0
Eric Parker – SDat DEN9.05.34.3
Troy Williamson – MINat MIA9.05.74.7
Chad Jackson – NEat GB9.06.05.0
Keenan McCardell – SDat DEN9.06.05.0
Matt Jones – JACvs NYG9.06.35.3
Bryant Johnson – ARIvs DET8.76.04.7
Marty Booker – MIAvs MIN8.76.04.7
Hank Baskett – PHIvs TEN8.76.04.7
Arnaz Battle – SFvs SEA8.76.35.0
Kevin Curtis – STLat CAR8.76.35.0
Bernard Berrian – CHIat NYJ8.36.34.7
Nate Washington – PITat CLE8.36.34.7
Eric Moulds – HOUvs BUF8.36.75.0
Santonio Holmes – PITat CLE8.36.75.0
Travis Taylor – MINat MIA8.06.34.3
Roscoe Parrish – BUFat HOU8.06.74.7
Joe Jurevicius – CLEvs PIT8.06.74.7
Josh Reed – BUFat HOU7.76.34.0
Samie Parker – KCvs OAK7.76.34.0
Nate Burleson – SEAat SF7.76.34.0
Marcus Robinson – MINat MIA7.76.74.3
Brandon Lloyd – WASat TB7.76.74.3
Wes Welker – MIAvs MIN7.06.73.7
Roddy White – ATLat BAL6.77.34.0
Brandon Stokely – INDat DAL6.77.34.0
Ashley Lelie – ATLat BAL6.37.33.7
Justin McCareins – NYJvs CHI6.37.33.7
Antwaan Randle El – WASat TB6.07.33.3
Dennis Northcutt – CLEvs PIT4.78.02.7
Bobby Engram – SEAat SF3.78.01.7

 
Start:
Donte’ Stallworth, PHI (14.3 rating): It’s been a while since Donte’ has been active in any fantasy lineups, but with a strong showing against the Redskins in week 10, he has officially arrived back on the scene. Good news for Stallworth and Mcnabb owners, not so good for Reggie Brown owners (like myself). Stallworth makes a very good start against the Titans.

Sit:
Santana Moss, WAS (9.3 rating): Moss has the potential to make any game a huge game, but this week he has several things working against him. He is still nursing a hamstring injury that severely hampered him last week. He is going to be covered this week by one of the NFL’s better corners in Ronde Barber. On top of that, quarterback Jason Campbell will be making his first start for the Redskins, and it may take a game or two for the young QB to get in sync with his wide receivers.
 

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Desmond Clark – CHIat NYJ14.03.77.7
Antonio Gates – SDat DEN14.04.08.0
Todd Heap – BALvs ATL13.73.77.3
LJ Smith – PHIvs TEN13.33.77.0
Heath Miller – PITat CLE13.03.76.7
Jason Witten – DALvs IND13.04.07.0
Jeremy Shockey – NYGat JAC12.34.36.7
Kellen Winslow – CLEvs PIT12.34.77.0
Ben Watson – NEat GB12.04.06.0
Dallas Clark – INDat DAL12.04.36.3
Alge Crumpler – ATLat BAL12.04.76.7
Chris Cooley – WASat TB11.74.36.0
Randy McMichael – MIAvs MIN11.34.76.0
Jeremy Stevens – SEAat SF11.34.76.0
Owen Daniels – HOUvs BUF11.04.75.7
Bubba Franks – GBvs NE9.35.34.7
Stephen Alexander – DENvs SD9.35.75.0
George Wrighster – JACvs NYG9.36.05.3
David Martin – GBvs NE9.05.74.7
Jermaine Wiggins – MINat MIA9.05.74.7
Marcus Pollard – DETat ARI9.06.05.0
Alex Smith – TBvs WAS9.06.05.0
Ben Utecht – INDat DAL8.75.34.0
Bo Scaife – TENat PHI8.75.74.3
Mike Sellers – WASat TB8.36.34.7
Daniel Graham – NEat GB8.35.74.0
Kris Mangum – CARvs STL8.36.04.3
Eric Johnson – SFvs SEA8.36.04.3
Courtney Anderson – OAKat KC8.06.04.0
Adam Bergen – ARIvs DET8.06.34.3
Reggie Kelly – CINat NO8.06.34.3
Itula Mili – SEAat SF8.06.34.3
Ben Troupe – TENat PHI8.06.34.3
John Gilmore – CHIat NYJ7.76.34.0
Kris Wilson – KCvs OAK7.76.74.3
Jeb Putzier – HOUvs BUF7.36.33.7
Anthony Becht – TBvs WAS7.37.04.3
Chris Baker – NYJvs CHI6.37.03.3
Bryan Fletcher – INDat DAL6.36.73.0
Jason Dunn – KCvs OAK5.77.73.3
Dan Campbell – DETat ARI5.37.73.0

 
Start:
Heath Miller, PIT (13.0 rating): The entire Pittsburgh offense looked better last week against New Orleans. Miller scored his third touchdown of the season. Perhaps Heath is finally getting more involved in the offense? This week against a weak Browns defense, Miller will have another good opportunity to contribute.

Sit:
Randy McMichael, MIA (11.3 rating): McMichael has yet to score this season, and has only logged 6 catches in his last two games. At this point McMichael is only worth playing against the right matchup. Minnesota is probably not a very favorable matchup, so sit him if you have other solid options available.
 

KickersOpponentRatingRiskReward
Robbie Gould – CHIat NYJ15.72.78.3
Josh Brown – SEAat SF14.72.77.3
Adam Vinatieri – INDat DAL14.33.07.3
Nate Kaeding – SDat DEN14.33.37.7
John Carney – NOvs CIN14.03.07.0
Shayne Graham – CINat NO14.03.37.3
David Akers – PHIvs TEN13.73.37.0
Jason Elam – DENvs SD13.73.77.3
Jeff Wilkins – STLat CAR13.73.77.3
John Kasay – CARvs STL13.03.36.3
Jeff Reed – PITat CLE13.04.07.0
Neil Rackers – ARIvs DET12.74.06.7
Lawrence Tynes – KCvs OAK12.33.76.0
Jason Hanson – DETat ARI12.04.36.3
Stephen Gostkowski – NEat GB12.04.36.3
Mike Vanderjagt – DALvs IND12.04.76.7
Matt Stover – BALvs ATL11.74.36.0
Dave Rayner – GBvs NE11.74.76.3
Jay Feely – NYGat JAC11.34.76.0
Morten Andersen – ATLat BAL11.35.36.7
Matt Bryant – TBvs WAS11.04.75.7
Ryan Longwell – MINat MIA11.05.36.3
Rian Lindell – BUFat HOU10.74.75.3
Nick Novak – WASat TB10.74.75.3
Josh Scobee – JACvs NYG10.75.05.7
Joe Nedney – SFvs SEA10.35.05.3
Phil Dawson – CLEvs PIT10.35.05.3
Kris Brown – HOUvs BUF10.05.05.0
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKat KC9.36.35.7
Rob Bironas – TENat PHI9.05.34.3
Olindo Mare – MIAvs MIN9.06.05.0
Mike Nugent – NYJvs CHI8.76.04.7
Michael Koenen – ATLat BAL3.08.31.3

 
Start:
Shayne Graham, CIN (14.0): The Bengals offense is clicking again which is always good news for the kicker. The Chargers looked a little lost on defense last week without Shawne Merriman. There is a very good chance this Bengals-Saints matchup will be a shoot-out, allowing for some great numbers from the kickers.

Sit:
Jay Feely, NYG (11.3 rating): Feely missed a pair of field goals last week, including a 33 yarder, and a 52 yarder that was returned for a touchdown by Devin Hester. The Jaguars have only allowed 10 field goals this season, the 4th fewest in the league.
 

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Chicagoat NYJ17.02.09.0
Baltimorevs ATL14.73.38.0
Philadelphiavs TEN13.33.36.7
Kansas Cityvs OAK13.33.77.0
Seattleat SF13.03.76.7
Pittsburghat CLE13.04.37.3
New Englandat GB12.34.36.7
San Diegoat DEN12.34.36.7
Tampa Bayvs WAS12.03.75.7
Carolinavs STL11.74.76.3
Jacksonvillevs NYG11.74.76.3
Minnesotaat MIA11.04.75.7
Miamivs MIN11.05.06.0
Indianapolisat DAL10.75.05.7
New York Giantsat JAC10.75.05.7
Atlantaat BAL10.75.36.0
Denvervs SD10.75.76.3
Buffaloat HOU10.35.05.3
St. Louisat CAR10.35.35.7
Arizonavs DET10.05.35.3
Washingtonat TB9.75.35.0
Detroitat ARI9.35.75.0
New Orleansvs CIN9.36.05.3
Cincinnatiat NO9.06.05.0
Dallasvs IND8.75.74.3
Houstonvs BUF8.75.74.3
Clevelandvs PIT8.06.34.3
Green Bayvs NE7.76.34.0
Tennesseeat PHI7.76.34.0
Oaklandat KC7.76.74.3
San Franciscovs SEA7.36.74.0
New York Jetsvs CHI7.06.73.7

 
Start:
Kansas City (13.3 rating): I hate to pick on the Raiders, but that offense is just not any good. Sacks and turnovers galore. A fantasy player’s dream matchup. Oakland averages fewer than 12 points per game, so if you are looking for a solid defense this week and the Chiefs are available, make sure you pick them up.

Sit:
Denver (11.3 rating): Can anyone stop LaDainian Tomlinson right now? LT recently broke the NFL record for most rushing touchdowns in a five game span, so I would not bet on any defense slowing him down, not even the usually dependable Broncos. Look elsewhere if you can.
 

 
Special thanks to dream_017, Kilroy1872, knapplc, madaslives911, mattb47 and SwiperNoSwiping for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 
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